METHODS: The Prospective Urban Rural Epidemiology (PURE) study is a large, epidemiological cohort study of individuals aged 35-70 years (enrolled between Jan 1, 2003, and March 31, 2013) in 18 countries with a median follow-up of 7·4 years (IQR 5·3-9·3). Dietary intake of 135 335 individuals was recorded using validated food frequency questionnaires. The primary outcomes were total mortality and major cardiovascular events (fatal cardiovascular disease, non-fatal myocardial infarction, stroke, and heart failure). Secondary outcomes were all myocardial infarctions, stroke, cardiovascular disease mortality, and non-cardiovascular disease mortality. Participants were categorised into quintiles of nutrient intake (carbohydrate, fats, and protein) based on percentage of energy provided by nutrients. We assessed the associations between consumption of carbohydrate, total fat, and each type of fat with cardiovascular disease and total mortality. We calculated hazard ratios (HRs) using a multivariable Cox frailty model with random intercepts to account for centre clustering.
FINDINGS: During follow-up, we documented 5796 deaths and 4784 major cardiovascular disease events. Higher carbohydrate intake was associated with an increased risk of total mortality (highest [quintile 5] vs lowest quintile [quintile 1] category, HR 1·28 [95% CI 1·12-1·46], ptrend=0·0001) but not with the risk of cardiovascular disease or cardiovascular disease mortality. Intake of total fat and each type of fat was associated with lower risk of total mortality (quintile 5 vs quintile 1, total fat: HR 0·77 [95% CI 0·67-0·87], ptrend<0·0001; saturated fat, HR 0·86 [0·76-0·99], ptrend=0·0088; monounsaturated fat: HR 0·81 [0·71-0·92], ptrend<0·0001; and polyunsaturated fat: HR 0·80 [0·71-0·89], ptrend<0·0001). Higher saturated fat intake was associated with lower risk of stroke (quintile 5 vs quintile 1, HR 0·79 [95% CI 0·64-0·98], ptrend=0·0498). Total fat and saturated and unsaturated fats were not significantly associated with risk of myocardial infarction or cardiovascular disease mortality.
INTERPRETATION: High carbohydrate intake was associated with higher risk of total mortality, whereas total fat and individual types of fat were related to lower total mortality. Total fat and types of fat were not associated with cardiovascular disease, myocardial infarction, or cardiovascular disease mortality, whereas saturated fat had an inverse association with stroke. Global dietary guidelines should be reconsidered in light of these findings.
FUNDING: Full funding sources listed at the end of the paper (see Acknowledgments).
METHODS: We studied 125 287 participants from 18 countries in North America, South America, Europe, Africa, and Asia in the Prospective Urban Rural Epidemiology (PURE) study. Habitual food intake was measured with validated food frequency questionnaires. We assessed the associations between nutrients (total fats, saturated fatty acids, monounsaturated fatty acids, polyunsaturated fatty acids, carbohydrates, protein, and dietary cholesterol) and cardiovascular disease risk markers using multilevel modelling. The effect of isocaloric replacement of saturated fatty acids with other fats and carbohydrates was determined overall and by levels of intakes by use of nutrient density models. We did simulation modelling in which we assumed that the effects of saturated fatty acids on cardiovascular disease events was solely related to their association through an individual risk marker, and then compared these simulated risk marker-based estimates with directly observed associations of saturated fatty acids with cardiovascular disease events.
FINDINGS: Participants were enrolled into the study from Jan 1, 2003, to March 31, 2013. Intake of total fat and each type of fat was associated with higher concentrations of total cholesterol and LDL cholesterol, but also with higher HDL cholesterol and apolipoprotein A1 (ApoA1), and lower triglycerides, ratio of total cholesterol to HDL cholesterol, ratio of triglycerides to HDL cholesterol, and ratio of apolipoprotein B (ApoB) to ApoA1 (all ptrend<0·0001). Higher carbohydrate intake was associated with lower total cholesterol, LDL cholesterol, and ApoB, but also with lower HDL cholesterol and ApoA1, and higher triglycerides, ratio of total cholesterol to HDL cholesterol, ratio of triglycerides to HDL cholesterol, and ApoB-to-ApoA1 ratio (all ptrend<0·0001, apart from ApoB [ptrend=0·0014]). Higher intakes of total fat, saturated fatty acids, and carbohydrates were associated with higher blood pressure, whereas higher protein intake was associated with lower blood pressure. Replacement of saturated fatty acids with carbohydrates was associated with the most adverse effects on lipids, whereas replacement of saturated fatty acids with unsaturated fats improved some risk markers (LDL cholesterol and blood pressure), but seemed to worsen others (HDL cholesterol and triglycerides). The observed associations between saturated fatty acids and cardiovascular disease events were approximated by the simulated associations mediated through the effects on the ApoB-to-ApoA1 ratio, but not with other lipid markers including LDL cholesterol.
INTERPRETATION: Our data are at odds with current recommendations to reduce total fat and saturated fats. Reducing saturated fatty acid intake and replacing it with carbohydrate has an adverse effect on blood lipids. Substituting saturated fatty acids with unsaturated fats might improve some risk markers, but might worsen others. Simulations suggest that ApoB-to-ApoA1 ratio probably provides the best overall indication of the effect of saturated fatty acids on cardiovascular disease risk among the markers tested. Focusing on a single lipid marker such as LDL cholesterol alone does not capture the net clinical effects of nutrients on cardiovascular risk.
FUNDING: Full funding sources listed at the end of the paper (see Acknowledgments).
METHODS: We recruited 54 abdominally obese subjects to participate in a prospective cross-over design, single-blind trial comparing isocaloric 2000 kcal MUFA or carbohydrate-enriched diet with SFA-enriched diet (control). The control diet consisted of 15E% protein, 53E% carbohydrate and 32E% fat (12E% SFA, 13E% MUFA). A total of ∼7E% of MUFA or refined carbohydrate was exchanged with SFA in the MUFA-rich and carbohydrate-rich diets respectively for 6-weeks. Blood samples were collected at fasting upon trial commencement and at week-5 and 6 of each dietary-intervention phase to measure levels of cytokines (IL-6, IL-1β), C-reactive protein (CRP), thrombogenic markers (E-selectin, PAI-1, D-dimer) and lipid subfractions. Radial pulse wave analysis and a 6-h postprandial mixed meal challenge were carried out at week-6 of each dietary intervention. Blood samples were collected at fasting, 15 and 30 min and hourly intervals thereafter till 6 h after a mixed meal challenge (muffin and milkshake) with SFA or MUFA (872.5 kcal, 50 g fat, 88 g carbohydrates) or CARB (881.3 kcal, 20 g fat, 158 g carbohydrates)- enrichment corresponding to the background diets.
RESULTS: No significant differences in fasting inflammatory and thrombogenic factors were noted between diets (P > 0.05). CARB meal was found to increase plasma IL-6 whereas MUFA meal elevated plasma D-dimer postprandially compared with SAFA meal (P
OBJECTIVE: To assess the chronic effects of the substitution of refined carbohydrate or MUFA for SAFA on insulin secretion and insulin sensitivity in centrally obese subjects.
METHODS: Using a crossover design, randomized controlled trial in abdominally overweight men and women, we compared the effects of substitution of 7% energy as carbohydrate or MUFA for SAFA for a period of 6 weeks each. Fasting and postprandial blood samples in response to corresponding SAFA, carbohydrate, or MUFA-enriched meal-challenges were collected after 6 weeks on each diet treatment for the assessment of outcomes.
RESULTS: As expected, postprandial nonesterified fatty acid suppression and elevation of C-peptide, insulin and glucose secretion were the greatest with high-carbohydrate (CARB) meal. Interestingly, CARB meal attenuated postprandial insulin secretion corrected for glucose response; however, the insulin sensitivity and disposition index were not affected. SAFA and MUFA had similar effects on all markers except for fasting glucose-dependent insulinotropic peptide concentrations, which increased after MUFA but not SAFA when compared with CARB.
CONCLUSION: In conclusion, a 6-week lower-fat/higher-carbohydrate (increased by 7% refined carbohydrate) diet may have greater adverse effect on insulin secretion corrected for glucose compared with isocaloric higher-fat diets. In contrast, exchanging MUFA for SAFA at 7% energy had no appreciable adverse impact on insulin secretion.