METHODS: To understand the regulation by temperature of leaf phenology in tropical trees, we performed daily observations of leaf production under rainfall-independent conditions using saplings of Shorea leprosula and Neobalanocarpus heimii, both species of Dipterocarpaceae, a dominant tree family of Southeast Asia. We analyzed the time-series data obtained using empirical dynamic modeling (EDM) and conducted growth chamber experiments.

RESULTS: Leaf production by dipterocarps fluctuated in the absence of fluctuation in rainfall, and the peaks of leaf production were more frequent than those of day length, suggesting that leaf production cannot be fully explained by these environmental factors, although they have been proposed as regulators of leaf phenology in dipterocarps. Instead, EDM suggested a causal relationship between temperature and leaf production in dipterocarps. Leaf production by N. heimii saplings in chambers significantly increased when temperature was increased after long-term low-temperature treatment. This increase in leaf production was observed even when only nighttime temperature was elevated, suggesting that the effect of temperature on development is not mediated by photosynthesis.