METHODS: In this systematic review and meta-analysis we searched PubMed up to June 30, 2021, for randomised controlled trials (RCTs) or cohort studies that reported on graded kidney-related adverse events among oral PrEP users (tenofovir disoproxil fumarate-based PrEP alone or in combination with emtricitabine or lamivudine). We extracted summary data and conducted meta-analyses with random-effects models to estimate relative risks of grade 1 and higher and grade 2 and higher kidney-related adverse events, measured by elevated serum creatinine or decline in estimated creatinine clearance or estimated glomerular filtration rate. The IPDMA included (largely unpublished) individual participant data from 17 PrEP implementation projects and two RCTs. Estimated baseline creatinine clearance and creatinine clearance change after initiation were described by age, gender, and comorbidities. We used random-effects regressions to estimate the risk in decline of creatinine clearance to less than 60 mL/min.
FINDINGS: We identified 62 unique records and included 17 articles reporting on 11 RCTs with 13 523 participants in meta-analyses. PrEP use was associated with increased risk of grade 1 and higher kidney adverse events (pooled odds ratio [OR] 1·49, 95% CI 1·22-1·81; I2=25%) and grade 2 and higher events (OR 1·75, 0·68-4·49; I2=0%), although the grade 2 and higher association was not statistically significant and events were rare (13 out of 6764 in the intervention group vs six out of 6782 in the control group). The IPDMA included 18 676 individuals from 15 countries (1453 [7·8%] from RCTs) and 79 (0·42%) had a baseline estimated creatinine clearance of less than 60 mL/min (increasing proportions with increasing age). Longitudinal analyses included 14 368 PrEP users and 349 (2·43%) individuals had a decline to less than 60 mL/min creatinine clearance, with higher risks associated with increasing age and baseline creatinine clearance of 60·00-89·99 mL/min (adjusted hazard ratio [aHR] 8·49, 95% CI 6·44-11·20) and less than 60 mL/min (aHR 20·83, 12·83-33·82).
INTERPRETATION: RCTs suggest that risks of kidney-related adverse events among tenofovir disoproxil fumarate-based oral PrEP users are increased but generally mild and small. Our global PrEP user analysis found varying risks by age and baseline creatinine clearance. Kidney function screening and monitoring might focus on older individuals, those with baseline creatinine clearance of less than 90 mL/min, and those with kidney-related comorbidities. Less frequent or optional screening among younger individuals without kidney-related comorbidities may reduce barriers to PrEP implementation and use.
FUNDING: Unitaid, Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation, WHO.
METHODS: An established ultra-sensitive Plasmodium genus quantitative-PCR (qPCR) assay targeting the 18S rRNA gene underwent LOD evaluation with and without reverse transcription (RT) for P. knowlesi, P. cynomolgi and P. vivax using total nucleic acid preserved (DNA/RNA Shield™) isolates and archived dried blood spots (DBS). LODs for selected P. knowlesi-specific assays, and reference P. vivax- and P. cynomolgi-specific assays were determined with RT. Assay specificities were assessed using clinical malaria samples and malaria-negative controls.
RESULTS: The use of reverse transcription improved Plasmodium species detection by up to 10,000-fold (Plasmodium genus), 2759-fold (P. knowlesi), 1000-fold (P. vivax) and 10-fold (P. cynomolgi). The median LOD with RT for the Kamau et al. Plasmodium genus RT-qPCR assay was ≤0.0002 parasites/μL for P. knowlesi and 0.002 parasites/μL for both P. cynomolgi and P. vivax. The LODs with RT for P. knowlesi-specific PCRs were: Imwong et al. 18S rRNA (0.0007 parasites/μL); Divis et al. real-time 18S rRNA (0.0002 parasites/μL); Lubis et al. hemi-nested SICAvar (1.1 parasites/μL) and Lee et al. nested 18S rRNA (11 parasites/μL). The LOD for P. vivax- and P. cynomolgi-specific assays with RT were 0.02 and 0.20 parasites/μL respectively. For DBS P. knowlesi samples the median LOD for the Plasmodium genus qPCR with RT was 0.08, and without RT was 19.89 parasites/uL (249-fold change); no LOD improvement was demonstrated in DBS archived beyond 6 years. The Plasmodium genus and P. knowlesi-assays were 100% specific for Plasmodium species and P. knowlesi detection, respectively, from 190 clinical infections and 48 healthy controls. Reference P. vivax-specific primers demonstrated known cross-reactivity with P. cynomolgi.
CONCLUSION: Our findings support the use of an 18S rRNA Plasmodium genus qPCR and species-specific nested PCR protocol with RT for highly-sensitive surveillance of zoonotic and human Plasmodium species infections.
METHODS: In total, 299 SNPs previously associated with prostate cancer were evaluated for inclusion in a new PHS, using a LASSO-regularized Cox proportional hazards model in a training dataset of 72,181 men from the PRACTICAL Consortium. The PHS model was evaluated in four testing datasets: African ancestry, Asian ancestry, and two of European Ancestry-the Cohort of Swedish Men (COSM) and the ProtecT study. Hazard ratios (HRs) were estimated to compare men with high versus low PHS for association with clinically significant, with any, and with fatal prostate cancer. The impact of genetic risk stratification on the positive predictive value (PPV) of PSA testing for clinically significant prostate cancer was also measured.
RESULTS: The final model (PHS290) had 290 SNPs with non-zero coefficients. Comparing, for example, the highest and lowest quintiles of PHS290, the hazard ratios (HRs) for clinically significant prostate cancer were 13.73 [95% CI: 12.43-15.16] in ProtecT, 7.07 [6.58-7.60] in African ancestry, 10.31 [9.58-11.11] in Asian ancestry, and 11.18 [10.34-12.09] in COSM. Similar results were seen for association with any and fatal prostate cancer. Without PHS stratification, the PPV of PSA testing for clinically significant prostate cancer in ProtecT was 0.12 (0.11-0.14). For the top 20% and top 5% of PHS290, the PPV of PSA testing was 0.19 (0.15-0.22) and 0.26 (0.19-0.33), respectively.
CONCLUSIONS: We demonstrate better genetic risk stratification for clinically significant prostate cancer than prior versions of PHS in multi-ancestry datasets. This is promising for implementing precision-medicine approaches to prostate cancer screening decisions in diverse populations.
METHODS: Global estimates of disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) and deaths from GBD 2021 were analyzed for common metabolic diseases (T2DM, hypertension, obesity, hypercholesterolemia, and MASLD). Age-standardized DALYs (mortality) per 100,000 population and annual percentage change (APC) between 1990 and 2021 were estimated for trend analyses. Estimates are reported with uncertainty intervals (UI).
RESULTS: In 2021, among five common metabolic diseases, hypertension had the greatest burden (226 million [95 % UI: 190-259] DALYs), whilst T2DM (75 million [95 % UI: 63-90] DALYs) conferred much greater disability than MASLD (3.67 million [95 % UI: 2.90-4.61]). The highest absolute burden continues to be found in the most populous countries of the world, particularly India, China, and the United States, whilst the highest relative burden was mostly concentrated in Oceania Island states. The burden of these metabolic diseases has continued to increase over the past three decades but has varied in the rate of increase (1.6-fold to 3-fold increase). The burden of T2DM (0.42 % [95 % UI: 0.34-0.51]) and obesity (0.26 % [95 % UI: 0.17-0.34]) has increased at an accelerated rate, while the rate of increase for the burden of hypertension (-0.30 % [95 % UI: -0.34 to -0.25]) and hypercholesterolemia (-0.33 % [95 % UI: -0.37 to -0.30]) is slowing. There is no significant change in MASLD over time (0.05 % [95 % UI: -0.06 to 0.17]).
CONCLUSION: In the 21st century, common metabolic diseases are presenting a significant global health challenge. There is a concerning surge in DALYs and mortality associated with these conditions, underscoring the necessity for a coordinated global health initiative to stem the tide of these debilitating diseases and improve population health outcomes worldwide.
AIMS: This study aims to provide comprehensive estimates of five important metabolic risk factors and the attributable disease burden in people aged 15-39 years from 1990 to 2021, based on the Global Burden of Disease Study (GBD) database.
METHODS: Global total deaths and disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) were used to describe the burden attributable to five common metabolic risk factors, including high fasting plasma glucose (FPG), high low-density lipoprotein cholesterol (LDL-C), high systolic blood pressure (SBP), high body mass index (BMI), and kidney dysfunction, in adolescents and young adults. The estimated annual percentage changes (EAPC) of DALYs were utilized to depict the trends from 1990 to 2021.
RESULTS: From 1990 to 2021, the DALY rates attributable to all metabolic risk factors showed a globally significant upward trend, with EAPC reaching 33.0 % (27.4-38.7). Compared to females, males had a heavier burden and a more significant increase in deaths and DALYs attributable to metabolic risk factors. High BMI and high FPG have become the top two metabolic risk factors in 2021, with summary exposure variables (SEV) rising by 84.2 % and 53.6 %, respectively. Low-middle socio-demographic index (SDI), middle SDI, and high SDI regions experienced upward regional trends in DALY rates, while low SDI regions remained stable. Among 204 countries and territories, 101 (49.5 %) showed a significant increase in DALY rates, as indicated by the EAPC.
CONCLUSIONS: There is a substantial global burden attributable to metabolic risk factors in adolescents and young adults in 2021, especially high BMI and high FPG. This calls for further investigation and intervention to address this emerging trend.
MATERIALS AND METHOD: 180 SNPs, shown to be previously associated with prostate cancer, were used to develop a PHS model in men with European ancestry. A machine-learning approach, LASSO-regularized Cox regression, was used to select SNPs and to estimate their coefficients in the training set (75,596 men). Performance of the resulting model was evaluated in the testing/validation set (6,411 men) with two metrics: (1) hazard ratios (HRs) and (2) positive predictive value (PPV) of prostate-specific antigen (PSA) testing. HRs were estimated between individuals with PHS in the top 5% to those in the middle 40% (HR95/50), top 20% to bottom 20% (HR80/20), and bottom 20% to middle 40% (HR20/50). PPV was calculated for the top 20% (PPV80) and top 5% (PPV95) of PHS as the fraction of individuals with elevated PSA that were diagnosed with clinically significant prostate cancer on biopsy.
RESULTS: 166 SNPs had non-zero coefficients in the Cox model (PHS166). All HR metrics showed significant improvements for PHS166 compared to PHS46: HR95/50 increased from 3.72 to 5.09, HR80/20 increased from 6.12 to 9.45, and HR20/50 decreased from 0.41 to 0.34. By contrast, no significant differences were observed in PPV of PSA testing for clinically significant prostate cancer.
CONCLUSIONS: Incorporating 120 additional SNPs (PHS166 vs PHS46) significantly improved HRs for prostate cancer, while PPV of PSA testing remained the same.
OBJECTIVE: To test if SNPs associated with other traits may also affect the risk of aggressive prostate cancer.
DESIGN, SETTING, AND PARTICIPANTS: SNPs implicated in any phenotype other than prostate cancer (p≤10(-7)) were identified through the catalog of published GWAS and tested in 2891 aggressive prostate cancer cases and 4592 controls from the Breast and Prostate Cancer Cohort Consortium (BPC3). The 40 most significant SNPs were followed up in 4872 aggressive prostate cancer cases and 24,534 controls from the Prostate Cancer Association Group to Investigate Cancer Associated Alterations in the Genome (PRACTICAL) consortium.
OUTCOME MEASUREMENTS AND STATISTICAL ANALYSIS: Odds ratios (ORs) and 95% confidence intervals (CIs) for aggressive prostate cancer were estimated.
RESULTS AND LIMITATIONS: A total of 4666 SNPs were evaluated by the BPC3. Two signals were seen in regions already reported for prostate cancer risk. rs7014346 at 8q24.21 was marginally associated with aggressive prostate cancer in the BPC3 trial (p=1.6×10(-6)), whereas after meta-analysis by PRACTICAL the summary OR was 1.21 (95% CI 1.16-1.27; p=3.22×10(-18)). rs9900242 at 17q24.3 was also marginally associated with aggressive disease in the meta-analysis (OR 0.90, 95% CI 0.86-0.94; p=2.5×10(-6)). Neither of these SNPs remained statistically significant when conditioning on correlated known prostate cancer SNPs. The meta-analysis by BPC3 and PRACTICAL identified a third promising signal, marked by rs16844874 at 2q34, independent of known prostate cancer loci (OR 1.12, 95% CI 1.06-1.19; p=4.67×10(-5)); it has been shown that SNPs correlated with this signal affect glycine concentrations. The main limitation is the heterogeneity in the definition of aggressive prostate cancer between BPC3 and PRACTICAL.
CONCLUSIONS: We did not identify new SNPs for aggressive prostate cancer. However, rs16844874 may provide preliminary genetic evidence on the role of the glycine pathway in prostate cancer etiology.
PATIENT SUMMARY: We evaluated whether genetic variants associated with several traits are linked to the risk of aggressive prostate cancer. No new such variants were identified.
METHODS: We used data from an ongoing individual participant meta-analysis involving 17 population-based cohorts worldwide. We selected 60,211 participants without cardiovascular disease at baseline with available data on ethnicity (White, Black, Asian or Hispanic). We generated a multivariable linear regression model containing risk factors and ethnicity predicting mean common carotid intima-media thickness (CIMT) and a multivariable Cox regression model predicting myocardial infarction or stroke. For each risk factor we assessed how the association with the preclinical and clinical measures of cardiovascular atherosclerotic disease was affected by ethnicity.
RESULTS: Ethnicity appeared to significantly modify the associations between risk factors and CIMT and cardiovascular events. The association between age and CIMT was weaker in Blacks and Hispanics. Systolic blood pressure associated more strongly with CIMT in Asians. HDL cholesterol and smoking associated less with CIMT in Blacks. Furthermore, the association of age and total cholesterol levels with the occurrence of cardiovascular events differed between Blacks and Whites.
CONCLUSION: The magnitude of associations between risk factors and the presence of atherosclerotic disease differs between race/ethnic groups. These subtle, yet significant differences provide insight in the etiology of cardiovascular disease among race/ethnic groups. These insights aid the race/ethnic-specific implementation of primary prevention.
METHODS AND FINDINGS: A search using Ovid MEDLINE and Embase was initially conducted to identify studies on severe Plasmodium falciparum malaria that included information on treatment delay, such as fever duration (inception to 22nd September 2017). Studies identified included 5 case-control and 8 other observational clinical studies of SM and UM cases. Risk of bias was assessed using the Newcastle-Ottawa scale, and all studies were ranked as 'Good', scoring ≥7/10. Individual-patient data (IPD) were pooled from 13 studies of 3,989 (94.1% aged <15 years) SM patients and 5,780 (79.6% aged <15 years) UM cases in Benin, Malaysia, Mozambique, Tanzania, The Gambia, Uganda, Yemen, and Zambia. Definitions of SM were standardised across studies to compare treatment delay in patients with UM and different SM phenotypes using age-adjusted mixed-effects regression. The odds of any SM phenotype were significantly higher in children with longer delays between initial symptoms and arrival at the health facility (odds ratio [OR] = 1.33, 95% CI: 1.07-1.64 for a delay of >24 hours versus ≤24 hours; p = 0.009). Reported illness duration was a strong predictor of presenting with severe malarial anaemia (SMA) in children, with an OR of 2.79 (95% CI:1.92-4.06; p < 0.001) for a delay of 2-3 days and 5.46 (95% CI: 3.49-8.53; p < 0.001) for a delay of >7 days, compared with receiving treatment within 24 hours from symptom onset. We estimate that 42.8% of childhood SMA cases and 48.5% of adult SMA cases in the study areas would have been averted if all individuals were able to access treatment within the first day of symptom onset, if the association is fully causal. In studies specifically recording onset of nonsevere symptoms, long treatment delay was moderately associated with other SM phenotypes (OR [95% CI] >3 to ≤4 days versus ≤24 hours: cerebral malaria [CM] = 2.42 [1.24-4.72], p = 0.01; respiratory distress syndrome [RDS] = 4.09 [1.70-9.82], p = 0.002). In addition to unmeasured confounding, which is commonly present in observational studies, a key limitation is that many severe cases and deaths occur outside healthcare facilities in endemic countries, where the effect of delayed or no treatment is difficult to quantify.
CONCLUSIONS: Our results quantify the relationship between rapid access to treatment and reduced risk of severe disease, which was particularly strong for SMA. There was some evidence to suggest that progression to other severe phenotypes may also be prevented by prompt treatment, though the association was not as strong, which may be explained by potential selection bias, sample size issues, or a difference in underlying pathology. These findings may help assess the impact of interventions that improve access to treatment.