Objective: To estimate mortality and morbidity in children and adolescents from 1990 to 2017 by age and sex in 195 countries and territories.
Design, Setting, and Participants: This study examined levels, trends, and spatiotemporal patterns of cause-specific mortality and nonfatal health outcomes using standardized approaches to data processing and statistical analysis. It also describes epidemiologic transitions by evaluating historical associations between disease indicators and the Socio-Demographic Index (SDI), a composite indicator of income, educational attainment, and fertility. Data collected from 1990 to 2017 on children and adolescents from birth through 19 years of age in 195 countries and territories were assessed. Data analysis occurred from January 2018 to August 2018.
Exposures: Being under the age of 20 years between 1990 and 2017.
Main Outcomes and Measures: Death and disability. All-cause and cause-specific deaths, disability-adjusted life years, years of life lost, and years of life lived with disability.
Results: Child and adolescent deaths decreased 51.7% from 13.77 million (95% uncertainty interval [UI], 13.60-13.93 million) in 1990 to 6.64 million (95% UI, 6.44-6.87 million) in 2017, but in 2017, aggregate disability increased 4.7% to a total of 145 million (95% UI, 107-190 million) years lived with disability globally. Progress was uneven, and inequity increased, with low-SDI and low-middle-SDI locations experiencing 82.2% (95% UI, 81.6%-82.9%) of deaths, up from 70.9% (95% UI, 70.4%-71.4%) in 1990. The leading disaggregated causes of disability-adjusted life years in 2017 in the low-SDI quintile were neonatal disorders, lower respiratory infections, diarrhea, malaria, and congenital birth defects, whereas neonatal disorders, congenital birth defects, headache, dermatitis, and anxiety were highest-ranked in the high-SDI quintile.
Conclusions and Relevance: Mortality reductions over this 27-year period mean that children are more likely than ever to reach their 20th birthdays. The concomitant expansion of nonfatal health loss and epidemiological transition in children and adolescents, especially in low-SDI and middle-SDI countries, has the potential to increase already overburdened health systems, will affect the human capital potential of societies, and may influence the trajectory of socioeconomic development. Continued monitoring of child and adolescent health loss is crucial to sustain the progress of the past 27 years.
METHODS: The International Society of Global Health (ISoGH) used the Child Health and Nutrition Research Initiative (CHNRI) method to identify research priorities for future pandemic preparedness. Eighty experts in global health, translational and clinical research identified 163 research ideas, of which 42 experts then scored based on five pre-defined criteria. We calculated intermediate criterion-specific scores and overall research priority scores from the mean of individual scores for each research idea. We used a bootstrap (n = 1000) to compute the 95% confidence intervals.
RESULTS: Key priorities included strengthening health systems, rapid vaccine and treatment production, improving international cooperation, and enhancing surveillance efficiency. Other priorities included learning from the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic, managing supply chains, identifying planning gaps, and promoting equitable interventions. We compared this CHNRI-based outcome with the 14 research priorities generated and ranked by ChatGPT, encountering both striking similarities and clear differences.
CONCLUSIONS: Priority setting processes based on human crowdsourcing - such as the CHNRI method - and the output provided by ChatGPT are both valuable, as they complement and strengthen each other. The priorities identified by ChatGPT were more grounded in theory, while those identified by CHNRI were guided by recent practical experiences. Addressing these priorities, along with improvements in health planning, equitable community-based interventions, and the capacity of primary health care, is vital for better pandemic preparedness and response in many settings.
Objective: To examine associations between maternal gestational CVH and offspring CVH.
Design, Setting, and Participants: This cohort study used data from the Hyperglycemia and Adverse Pregnancy Outcome (HAPO) Study (examinations: July 2000-April 2006) and HAPO Follow-Up Study (examinations: February 2013-December 2016). The analyses included 2302 mother-child dyads, comprising 48% of HAPO Follow-Up Study participants, in an ancillary CVH study. Participants were from 9 field centers across the United States, Barbados, United Kingdom, China, Thailand, and Canada.
Exposures: Maternal gestational CVH at a target of 28 weeks' gestation, based on 5 metrics: body mass index, blood pressure, total cholesterol level, glucose level, and smoking. Each metric was categorized as ideal, intermediate, or poor using pregnancy guidelines. Total CVH was categorized as follows: all ideal metrics, 1 or more intermediate (but 0 poor) metrics, 1 poor metric, or 2 or more poor metrics.
Main Outcomes and Measures: Offspring CVH at ages 10 to 14 years, based on 4 metrics: body mass index, blood pressure, total cholesterol level, and glucose level. Total CVH was categorized as for mothers.
Results: Among 2302 dyads, the mean (SD) ages were 29.6 (2.7) years for pregnant mothers and 11.3 (1.1) years for children. During pregnancy, the mean (SD) maternal CVH score was 8.6 (1.4) out of 10. Among pregnant mothers, the prevalence of all ideal metrics was 32.8% (95% CI, 30.6%-35.1%), 31.7% (95% CI, 29.4%-34.0%) for 1 or more intermediate metrics, 29.5% (95% CI, 27.2%-31.7%) for 1 poor metric, and 6.0% (95% CI, 3.8%-8.3%) for 2 or more poor metrics. Among children of mothers with all ideal metrics, the prevalence of all ideal metrics was 42.2% (95% CI, 38.4%-46.2%), 36.7% (95% CI, 32.9%-40.7%) for 1 or more intermediate metrics, 18.4% (95% CI, 14.6%-22.4%) for 1 poor metric, and 2.6% (95% CI, 0%-6.6%) for 2 or more poor metrics. Among children of mothers with 2 or more poor metrics, the prevalence of all ideal metrics was 30.7% (95% CI, 22.0%-40.4%), 28.3% (95% CI, 19.7%-38.1%) for 1 or more intermediate metrics, 30.7% (95% CI, 22.0%-40.4%) for 1 poor metric, and 10.2% (95% CI, 1.6%-20.0%) for 2 or more poor metrics. The adjusted relative risks associated with 1 or more intermediate, 1 poor, and 2 or more poor (vs all ideal) metrics, respectively, in mothers during pregnancy were 1.17 (95% CI, 0.96-1.42), 1.66 (95% CI, 1.39-1.99), and 2.02 (95% CI, 1.55-2.64) for offspring to have 1 poor (vs all ideal) metrics, and the relative risks were 2.15 (95% CI, 1.23-3.75), 3.32 (95% CI,1.96-5.62), and 7.82 (95% CI, 4.12-14.85) for offspring to have 2 or more poor (vs all ideal) metrics. Additional adjustment for categorical birth factors (eg, preeclampsia) did not fully explain these significant associations (eg, relative risk for association between 2 or more poor metrics among mothers during pregnancy and 2 or more poor metrics among offspring after adjustment for an extended set of birth factors, 6.23 [95% CI, 3.03-12.82]).
Conclusions and Relevance: In this multinational cohort, better maternal CVH at 28 weeks' gestation was significantly associated with better offspring CVH at ages 10 to 14 years.
METHODS: We did a sequential annual cross-sectional study of 2164 children aged 8-9 years attending primary schools between 2009-10 and 2013-14 in central London, UK, following the introduction of London's LEZ in February, 2008. We examined the association between modelled pollutant exposures of nitrogen oxides (including nitrogen dioxide [NO2]) and particulate matter with a diameter of less than 2·5 μm (PM2·5) and less than 10 μm (PM10) and lung function: postbronchodilator forced expiratory volume in 1 s (FEV1, primary outcome), forced vital capacity (FVC), and respiratory or allergic symptoms. We assigned annual exposures by each child's home and school address, as well as spatially resolved estimates for the 3 h (0600-0900 h), 24 h, and 7 days before each child's assessment, to isolate long-term from short-term effects.
FINDINGS: The percentage of children living at addresses exceeding the EU limit value for annual NO2 (40 μg/m3) fell from 99% (444/450) in 2009 to 34% (150/441) in 2013. Over this period, we identified a reduction in NO2 at both roadside (median -1·35 μg/m3 per year; 95% CI -2·09 to -0·61; p=0·0004) and background locations (-0·97; -1·56 to -0·38; p=0·0013), but not for PM10. The effect on PM2·5 was equivocal. We found no association between postbronchodilator FEV1 and annual residential pollutant attributions. By contrast, FVC was inversely correlated with annual NO2 (-0·0023 L/μg per m3; -0·0044 to -0·0002; p=0·033) and PM10 (-0·0090 L/μg per m3; -0·0175 to -0·0005; p=0·038).
INTERPRETATION: Within London's LEZ, a smaller lung volume in children was associated with higher annual air pollutant exposures. We found no evidence of a reduction in the proportion of children with small lungs over this period, despite small improvements in air quality in highly polluted urban areas during the implementation of London's LEZ. Interventions that deliver larger reductions in emissions might yield improvements in children's health.
FUNDING: National Institute for Health Research Biomedical Research Centre at Guy's and St Thomas' National Health Service (NHS) Foundation Trust and King's College London, NHS Hackney, Lee Him donation, and Felicity Wilde Charitable Trust.