MATERIALS AND METHODS: An ecological study was conducted from 2016 to 2021 using the dengue database and meteorological data. The forecasting model for dengue incidence was performed with R software using the seasonal autoregressive integrated moving average (SARIMA) model. The model was fitted based on the reported weekly incidence of dengue from 2016 to 2020 and validated using data collected between January and December 2021.
RESULTS: SARIMA (1,1,1) (1,1,0)52 with the external regressor maximal temperature, Aedes index, and vacant lot were the models with minimal measurement errors, as indicated by the Mean Absolute Error (MAE) values of 3.04, Root Mean Squared Error (RMSE) of 4.43, and Akaike Information Criterion (AIC) of 1354.82.
CONCLUSIONS: The predicted values in 2021 accurately forecasted the capability to serve as an early warning system for proactive dengue measures. This information is deemed valuable to healthcare administrators for enhancing the level of preparedness.