METHODS: We studied 522 patients who underwent mastectomy between 1998 and 2002 and followed them up until 2008. We defined PMLRR as recurrence to the axilla, supraclavicular nodes and or chest wall. ILR was defined as PMLRR occurring as an isolated event. Prognostic factors for locoregional recurrence were determined using the Cox proportional hazards regression model.
RESULTS: The overall PMLRR rate was 16.4%. ILR developed in 42 of 522 patients (8.0%). Within this subgroup, 25 (59.5%) remained disease free after treatment while 17 (40.5%) suffered disease progression. Univariate analyses identified race, age, size, stage, margin involvement, lymph node involvement, grade, lymphovascular invasion and ER status as probable prognostic factors for ILR. Cox regression resulted in only stage III disease and margin involvement as independent prognostic factors. The hazard of ILR was 2.5 times higher when the margins were involved compared to when they were clear (aHRR 2.5; 95% CI 1.3 to 5.0). Similarly, compared with stage I those with Stage II (aHRR 2.1; 95%CI 0.6 to 6.8) and stage III (aHRR 4.6; 95%CI 1.4 to 15.9) had worse prognosis for ILR.
CONCLUSION: Margin involvement and stage III disease were identified to be independent prognostic factors for ILR. Close follow-up of high risk patients and prompt treatment of locoregional recurrence were recommended.
METHODS: An age-structured multi-state Markov model was developed to simulate the natural history of HCV infection. We tested three historical incidence scenarios that would give rise to the estimated prevalence in 2009, and calculated the incidence of cirrhosis, end-stage liver disease, and death, and disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) under each scenario, to the year 2039. In the baseline scenario, current antiviral treatment levels were extended from 2014 to the end of the simulation period. To estimate the disease burden averted under current sustained virological response rates and treatment levels, the baseline scenario was compared to a counterfactual scenario in which no past or future treatment is assumed.
RESULTS: In the baseline scenario, the projected disease burden for the year 2039 is 94,900 DALYs/year (95% credible interval (CrI): 77,100 to 124,500), with 2,002 (95% CrI: 1340 to 3040) and 540 (95% CrI: 251 to 1,030) individuals predicted to develop decompensated cirrhosis and hepatocellular carcinoma, respectively, in that year. Although current treatment practice is estimated to avert a cumulative total of 2,200 deaths from DC or HCC, a cumulative total of 63,900 HCV-related deaths is projected by 2039.
CONCLUSIONS: The HCV-related disease burden is already high and is forecast to rise steeply over the coming decades under current levels of antiviral treatment. Increased governmental resources to improve HCV screening and treatment rates and to reduce transmission are essential to address the high projected HCV disease burden in Malaysia.