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  1. Vard B, Adham A, Riahi R, Karimi G, Esmail Motlagh M, Heshmat R, et al.
    Health Promot Perspect, 2020;10(4):349-358.
    PMID: 33312930 DOI: 10.34172/hpp.2020.53
    Background: This study aimed to investigate the association between prenatal/infancy factors and lipid profile in children and adolescents. Methods: This multicentric national study was conducted in 30 provinces in Iran. It comprised 4200 participants, aged 7-18 years, from the fifth survey of a national surveillance program. History regarding birth weight, as well as the type of consumed milk and food during infancy was obtained from parents. In addition to physical examinations, fasting blood samples were obtained to assess the lipid profile of these students. Results: Data from 3844 participants were available (91.5% participation rate), 52.4 % of students were boys. Mean (SD) age of participants was 12.3(3.2) years. Consuming cow milk in the first two years significantly increased the risk of high triglycerides (TG) (odds ratio [OR]:2.77, 95% CI: 1.32-5.85, P: 0.01), elevated low-density lipoprotein (LDL) (P<0.05) and low high-density lipoprotein (HDL) (P <0.05). Students who had consumed commercially made food as complementary feeding were 93% more likely to have high LDL (OR: 1.93, 95% CI=1.19-3.13, P: 0.01) and 90% more likely to have high TG than students who had consumed homemade food (OR: 1.90, 95% CI: 1.15-3.12, P: 0.01). The aforementioned figures were not significantly associated with an elevated total cholesterol (TC) level. Conclusion: Our findings revealed that the history of using human milk and home-made food as complementary feeding was associated with better lipid profile in childhood and early adolescence. Increasing public knowledge in this regard might be useful for encouragement of healthier life prevention of chronic diseases.
  2. Hasani M, Djalalinia S, Khazdooz M, Asayesh H, Zarei M, Gorabi AM, et al.
    Hormones (Athens), 2020 Sep;19(3):451.
    PMID: 32613535 DOI: 10.1007/s42000-020-00224-8
    The original version of this article, published on 10 December 2019 contained a mistake.
  3. Zahedi H, Djalalinia S, Sadeghi O, Zare Garizi F, Asayesh H, Payab M, et al.
    Nutr Neurosci, 2020 Dec 14.
    PMID: 33314992 DOI: 10.1080/1028415X.2020.1853411
    OBJECTIVE: Several studies have been conducted on the relationship between breakfast consumption and mental health with conflicting results. Therefore, the present systematic review and meta-analysis was undertaken to summarize evidences on the association between skipping breakfast and mental health.

    METHODS: We searched online databases for all related papers through the comprehensive international data bases of Institute of PubMed/ MEDLINE, ISI/WOS and Scopus up to December 2019, using relevant keywords. Overall, 14 studies were included in this systematic review and meta-analysis.

    RESULTS: The total sample size of all selected studies was 399,550 individuals with age range of 6 to ≥65 years old. We found a significant positive association between skipping breakfast and Odds Ratio (OR) of depression (pooled OR: 1.39; 95% CI: 1.34-1.44), stress (pooled OR: 1.23; 95% CI: 1.04-1.43) and psychological distress (pooled OR: 1.55; 95% CI: 1.47-1.62). In contrast, there was no significant association between skipping breakfast and anxiety in all age cohort (pooled OR: 1.31; 95% CI: 0.97-1.65). However, subgroup analysis based on age stratification showed that there was a significant positive association between skipping breakfast and anxiety in adolescences (pooled OR: 1.51; 95% CI: 1.25-1.77).

    CONCLUSION: In conclusion, skipping breakfast was positively associated with odds of depression, stress and psychological distress in all age groups and anxiety in adolescence, underlining impact of breakfast on mental health.

  4. Zarei M, Qorbani M, Djalalinia S, Sulaiman N, Subashini T, Appanah G, et al.
    Int J Prev Med, 2021;12:8.
    PMID: 34084305 DOI: 10.4103/ijpvm.IJPVM_61_19
    Background: This review seeks to determine the relationship between food insecurity among elderly people over the past decades and nutrient deficiency, which is rather unclear. We aim to systematically review the relationship between food insecurity and dietary intake among elderly population.

    Methods: In this systematic review, we systematically searched the international databases including PubMed, Web of Sciences, and Scopus for scientifically related papers which have been published up until January 2018. For a more refined search, we used the Medical Subject Headings (MeSH) terms and Emtree. In terms of search protocol, no restrictions were placed on time and language. Two independent reviewers conducted the data refining processes. Validated form (PRISMA) was used to conduct quality assessment and data extraction.

    Results: Eight cross sectional studies have been included in this review. Two of the studies were conducted in Asia and the remaining six studies were largely based in the United States and Canada. Food insecurity was associated with low levels of vitamin and mineral intakes such as vitamins E, A, B, and D and also zinc, calcium, magnesium, and iron. Most studies also reported insufficient energy, and micro and macronutrients intake among elderly people.

    Conclusions: The findings of this review evidence a considerable amount of food insecurity and nutrient deficiency, including vitamins E, C, D, B 2, and B 12 and zinc, phosphorus, and calcium among elderly population. These findings could be used as reliable evidence by policy makers and future complementary analyses.

  5. Hasani M, Djalalinia S, Khazdooz M, Asayesh H, Zarei M, Gorabi AM, et al.
    Hormones (Athens), 2019 Dec 10.
    PMID: 31820398 DOI: 10.1007/s42000-019-00143-3
    AIM: The aim of this study is the systematic review and meta-analysis of controlled trial studies to assess the antioxidant effects of selenium (Se) supplementation.

    METHODS: The systematic review and meta-analysis were performed according to the previously published protocol. The PubMed, Web of Sciences, and Scopus databases were meticulously searched for relevant data, without time or language restriction, up to June 1, 2017. All clinical trials which assessed the effect of Se supplementation on antioxidant markers, including oxidative stress index (OSI), antioxidant potency composite (APC) index, plasma malonaldehyde (MDA), total antioxidant capacity (TAC), antioxidant enzymes (superoxide dismutase (SOD), glutathione peroxidase (GPX), catalase (CAT)), and total antioxidant plasma (TAP), were included. The effect of Se supplementation on antioxidant markers was assessed using standardized mean difference (SMD) and 95% confidence interval (CI). The random-effect meta-analysis method was used to estimate the pooled SMD.

    RESULTS: In total, 13 studies which assessed the effect of Se supplementation on antioxidant markers were included. The random-effect meta-analysis method showed that Se supplementation significantly increased GPX (SMD = 0.54; 95% CI = 0.21-0.87) and TAC (SMD = 0.39, 95% CI = 0.13, 0.66) levels and decreased MDA levels (SMD = - 0.54, 95% CI = - 0.78, - 0.30). The effect of Se supplementation on other antioxidant markers was not statistically significant (P > 0.05).

    CONCLUSION: The findings showed that Se supplementation might reduce oxidative stress by increasing TAC and GPX levels and decreasing serum MDA, both of which are crucial factors for reduction of oxidative stress.

  6. Khazdouz M, Djalalinia S, Sarrafi Zadeh S, Hasani M, Shidfar F, Ataie-Jafari A, et al.
    Biol Trace Elem Res, 2020 Jun;195(2):373-398.
    PMID: 31494808 DOI: 10.1007/s12011-019-01870-9
    The prevalence of cardiometabolic risk factors has been increasing worldwide. The results of reported studies on the effects of zinc supplementation on cardiometabolic risk factors are unequivocal. This systematic review and meta-analysis of randomized controlled trials was conducted to evaluate the effects of zinc supplementation on cardiometabolic risk factors. A systematic search was conducted through international databases (PubMed/Medline, Institute of Scientific Information, and Scopus) until December 2018 to include all randomized controlled trials (RCT), quasi-RCT, and controlled clinical trials which assessed the effect of zinc supplementation on cardiometabolic risk factors including lipid profile, glycemic indices, blood pressure, and anthropometric indices. Random- or fixed-effects meta-analysis method was used to estimate the standardized mean difference (SMD) and 95% confidence interval (CI). A total of 20 studies were included in the meta-analysis, which included a total of 1141 participants in the intervention group. Meta-analysis showed that zinc supplementation significantly decreased plasma levels of triglyceride (SMD - 0.66, 95% CI - 1.27, - 0.06), very-low-density lipoprotein (SMD - 1.59, 95% CI - 2.86, - 0.31), and total cholesterol (SMD - 0.65, 95% CI - 1.15, - 0.15). Similarly, zinc supplementation significantly decreased fasting blood glucose (SMD - 0.52, 95% CI - 0.96, - 0.07) and HbA1c (SMD - 0.64, 95% CI - 1.27, - 0.02). The effects of zinc supplementation on blood pressure and anthropometric indices were not statistically significant (P > 0.05). Zinc supplements had beneficial effects on glycemic indices and lipid profile. Thus, it appeared that zinc supplementation might be associated with a decrease in cardiometabolic risk factors contributing to a reduction in risk of atherosclerosis.
  7. Djalalinia S, Hasani M, Asayesh H, Ejtahed HS, Malmir H, Kasaeian A, et al.
    J Diabetes Metab Disord, 2021 Jun;20(1):1051-1062.
    PMID: 34222098 DOI: 10.1007/s40200-021-00821-3
    Purpose: Selenium (Se) is a trace element having significant effects on human metabolism. Recent studies suggest that Se supplementation have a pivotal effect on the inflammatory markers. Therefore, the aim of this study was to assess the effect of Se supplementation on plasma inflammatory markers including C-reactive protein (CRP) and high-sensitivity C-reactive protein (hs-CRP) and nitric oxide (NO) as a stress oxidative index, among patients with metabolic diseases.

    Methods: To assess the effects of Se on the inflammatory markers, following the PRISMA-P guidelines, we systematically searched ISI/WOS, PubMed/MEDLINE, and Scopus for studies that assessed the effect of Se supplementation on the inflammatory markers. Data extraction was performed by two independent investigators. Using the random effects or fixed-effects model depending on the results of heterogeneity tests was used to estimate the pooled standardized mean difference (SMD). Heterogeneity between studies was assessed using Cochran's Q test and I2 index.

    Results: The initial search revealed 3,320 papers. After screening process and considering inclusion criteria, 7 publications were eligible for inclusion in the meta-analysis. The meta-analysis results showed that Se supplementation did not significantly affect CRP and hs-CRP concentrations (mean difference (MD) = -0.15; 95% CI: -0.55- 0.23; P = 0.43). Subgroup analysis of CRP type showed that Se supplementation significantly decreased hs-CRP level (pooled SMD = -0.44; 95% CI: -0.67-0.21). Moreover, no significant change was observed in NO level by continuing to take Se supplementation, (pooled SMD: 0.003, 95%CI: -0.26, 0.26).

    Conclusions: This study revealed that Se supplementation would have desirable effects on cardio-metabolic indicators through affecting the levels of inflammatory markers. Given the importance of concerns, more attention should be given to more prospective studies with longer follow-up.

  8. Mahdavi Gorabi A, Hasani M, Djalalinia S, Zarei M, Ejtahed H, Abdar ME, et al.
    J Diabetes Metab Disord, 2019 Dec;18(2):349-362.
    PMID: 31890660 DOI: 10.1007/s40200-019-00419-w
    PURPOSE: The association between selenium supplementation and glycemic indices seems to be a controversial issue. This systematic review and meta-analysis was conducted to evaluate the effect of selenium supplementation on glycemic indices.

    METHODS: We systematically searched PubMed/MEDLINE, ISI/WOS, and Scopus (from their commencements up to Jan 2016) for relevant studies examining the association between intake of selenium and glycemic indices. The data were extracted from relevant qualified studies and estimated using the random-effect or pooled model and standardized mean difference (SMD) with 95% confidence interval (CI).

    RESULTS: Twelve articles published between 2004 and 2016 were included. In all the studies, the participants were randomly assigned to an intervention group (n = 757) or a control group(n = 684). All the studies were double blind, placebo controlled trials. Selenium supplementation resulted in a significant decrease in homeostasis model of assessment-estimated β-cell function (HOMA-B) (SMD: -0.63; 95%CI: -0.89 to -0.38) and a significant increase in quantitative insulin sensitivity check index (QUICKI) (SMD: by 0.74; 95%CI: 0.49 to 0.1) as compared with the controls. There were no statistically significant improvements in glycemic indices, such as fasting plasma glucose (FPG), insulin, homeostasis model of assessment-estimated insulin resistance (HOMA-IR), Hemoglobin A1c (HbA1c) and adiponectin.

    CONCLUSION: This meta-analysis indicated that selenium supplementation significantly decreased HOMA-B and increased QUICKI score. There was no statistically significant improvement in FPG, insulin, HOMA-IR, HbA1c and adiponectin indices following selenium supplementation.

  9. Ataie-Jafari A, Namazi N, Djalalinia S, Chaghamirzayi P, Abdar ME, Zadehe SS, et al.
    PMID: 30288175 DOI: 10.1186/s13098-018-0373-y
    Background: Recently, neck circumference (NC) has been used to predict the risk of cardiometabolic factors. This study aimed to perform a systematic review and meta-analysis to examine: (i) the sensitivity (SE) and specificity (SP) of NC to predict cardiometabolic risk factors and (ii) the association between NC and the risk of cardiometabolic parameters.

    Methods: A systematic search was conducted through PubMed/Medline, Institute of Scientific Information, and Scopus, until 2017 based on the search terms of metabolic syndrome (MetS) and cardio metabolic risk factors. Random-effect model was used to perform a meta-analysis and estimate the pooled SE, SP and correlation coefficient (CC).

    Results: A total of 41 full texts were selected for systematic review. The pooled SE of greater NC to predict MetS was 65% (95% CI 58, 72) and 77% (95% CI 55, 99) in adult and children, respectively. Additionally, the pooled SP was 66% (95% CI 60, 72) and 66% (95% CI 48, 84) in adult and children, respectively. According to the results of meta-analysis in adults, NC had a positive and significant correlation with fasting blood sugar (FBS) (CC: 0.16, 95% CI 0.13, 0.20), HOMA-IR (0.38, 95% CI 0.25, 0.50), total cholesterol (TC) (0.07 95% CI 0.02, 0.12), triglyceride (TG) concentrations (0.23, 95% CI 0.19, 0.28) and low density lipoprotein cholesterol (LDL-C) (0.14, 95% CI 0.07, 0.22). Among children, NC was positively associated with FBS (CC: 0.12, 95% CI 0.07, 0.16), TG (CC: 0.21, 95% CI 0.17, 0.25), and TC concentrations (CC: 0.07, 95% CI 0.02, 0.12). However, it was not significant for LDL-C.

    Conclusion: NC has a good predictive value to identify some cardiometabolic risk factors. There was a positive association between high NC and most cardiometabolic risk factors. However due to high heterogeneity, findings should be declared with caution.

  10. Xi B, Zong X, Kelishadi R, Hong YM, Khadilkar A, Steffen LM, et al.
    Circulation, 2016 Jan 26;133(4):398-408.
    PMID: 26671979 DOI: 10.1161/CIRCULATIONAHA.115.017936
    Several distributions of country-specific blood pressure (BP) percentiles by sex, age, and height for children and adolescents have been established worldwide. However, there are no globally unified BP references for defining elevated BP in children and adolescents, which limits international comparisons of the prevalence of pediatric elevated BP. We aimed to establish international BP references for children and adolescents by using 7 nationally representative data sets (China, India, Iran, Korea, Poland, Tunisia, and the United States).
  11. Xi B, Zong X, Kelishadi R, Litwin M, Hong YM, Poh BK, et al.
    J Clin Endocrinol Metab, 2020 04 01;105(4).
    PMID: 31723976 DOI: 10.1210/clinem/dgz195
    CONTEXT: No universal waist circumference (WC) percentile cutoffs used have been proposed for screening central obesity in children and adolescents.

    OBJECTIVE: To develop international WC percentile cutoffs for children and adolescents with normal weight based on data from 8 countries in different global regions and to examine the relation with cardiovascular risk.

    DESIGN AND SETTING: We used pooled data on WC in 113,453 children and adolescents (males 50.2%) aged 4 to 20 years from 8 countries in different regions (Bulgaria, China, Iran, Korea, Malaysia, Poland, Seychelles, and Switzerland). We calculated WC percentile cutoffs in samples including or excluding children with obesity, overweight, or underweight. WC percentiles were generated using the general additive model for location, scale, and shape (GAMLSS). We also estimated the predictive power of the WC 90th percentile cutoffs to predict cardiovascular risk using receiver operator characteristics curve analysis based on data from 3 countries that had available data (China, Iran, and Korea). We also examined which WC percentiles linked with WC cutoffs for central obesity in adults (at age of 18 years).

    MAIN OUTCOME MEASURE: WC measured based on recommendation by the World Health Organization.

    RESULTS: We validated the performance of the age- and sex-specific 90th percentile WC cutoffs calculated in children and adolescents (6-18 years of age) with normal weight (excluding youth with obesity, overweight, or underweight) by linking the percentile with cardiovascular risk (area under the curve [AUC]: 0.69 for boys; 0.63 for girls). In addition, WC percentile among normal weight children linked relatively well with established WC cutoffs for central obesity in adults (eg, AUC in US adolescents: 0.71 for boys; 0.68 for girls).

    CONCLUSION: The international WC cutoffs developed in this study could be useful to screen central obesity in children and adolescents aged 6 to 18 years and allow direct comparison of WC distributions between populations and over time.

  12. GBD 2017 Child and Adolescent Health Collaborators, Reiner RC, Olsen HE, Ikeda CT, Echko MM, Ballestreros KE, et al.
    JAMA Pediatr, 2019 06 01;173(6):e190337.
    PMID: 31034019 DOI: 10.1001/jamapediatrics.2019.0337
    Importance: Understanding causes and correlates of health loss among children and adolescents can identify areas of success, stagnation, and emerging threats and thereby facilitate effective improvement strategies.

    Objective: To estimate mortality and morbidity in children and adolescents from 1990 to 2017 by age and sex in 195 countries and territories.

    Design, Setting, and Participants: This study examined levels, trends, and spatiotemporal patterns of cause-specific mortality and nonfatal health outcomes using standardized approaches to data processing and statistical analysis. It also describes epidemiologic transitions by evaluating historical associations between disease indicators and the Socio-Demographic Index (SDI), a composite indicator of income, educational attainment, and fertility. Data collected from 1990 to 2017 on children and adolescents from birth through 19 years of age in 195 countries and territories were assessed. Data analysis occurred from January 2018 to August 2018.

    Exposures: Being under the age of 20 years between 1990 and 2017.

    Main Outcomes and Measures: Death and disability. All-cause and cause-specific deaths, disability-adjusted life years, years of life lost, and years of life lived with disability.

    Results: Child and adolescent deaths decreased 51.7% from 13.77 million (95% uncertainty interval [UI], 13.60-13.93 million) in 1990 to 6.64 million (95% UI, 6.44-6.87 million) in 2017, but in 2017, aggregate disability increased 4.7% to a total of 145 million (95% UI, 107-190 million) years lived with disability globally. Progress was uneven, and inequity increased, with low-SDI and low-middle-SDI locations experiencing 82.2% (95% UI, 81.6%-82.9%) of deaths, up from 70.9% (95% UI, 70.4%-71.4%) in 1990. The leading disaggregated causes of disability-adjusted life years in 2017 in the low-SDI quintile were neonatal disorders, lower respiratory infections, diarrhea, malaria, and congenital birth defects, whereas neonatal disorders, congenital birth defects, headache, dermatitis, and anxiety were highest-ranked in the high-SDI quintile.

    Conclusions and Relevance: Mortality reductions over this 27-year period mean that children are more likely than ever to reach their 20th birthdays. The concomitant expansion of nonfatal health loss and epidemiological transition in children and adolescents, especially in low-SDI and middle-SDI countries, has the potential to increase already overburdened health systems, will affect the human capital potential of societies, and may influence the trajectory of socioeconomic development. Continued monitoring of child and adolescent health loss is crucial to sustain the progress of the past 27 years.

  13. Roth GA, Johnson C, Abajobir A, Abd-Allah F, Abera SF, Abyu G, et al.
    J Am Coll Cardiol, 2017 Jul 04;70(1):1-25.
    PMID: 28527533 DOI: 10.1016/j.jacc.2017.04.052
    BACKGROUND: The burden of cardiovascular diseases (CVDs) remains unclear in many regions of the world.

    OBJECTIVES: The GBD (Global Burden of Disease) 2015 study integrated data on disease incidence, prevalence, and mortality to produce consistent, up-to-date estimates for cardiovascular burden.

    METHODS: CVD mortality was estimated from vital registration and verbal autopsy data. CVD prevalence was estimated using modeling software and data from health surveys, prospective cohorts, health system administrative data, and registries. Years lived with disability (YLD) were estimated by multiplying prevalence by disability weights. Years of life lost (YLL) were estimated by multiplying age-specific CVD deaths by a reference life expectancy. A sociodemographic index (SDI) was created for each location based on income per capita, educational attainment, and fertility.

    RESULTS: In 2015, there were an estimated 422.7 million cases of CVD (95% uncertainty interval: 415.53 to 427.87 million cases) and 17.92 million CVD deaths (95% uncertainty interval: 17.59 to 18.28 million CVD deaths). Declines in the age-standardized CVD death rate occurred between 1990 and 2015 in all high-income and some middle-income countries. Ischemic heart disease was the leading cause of CVD health lost globally, as well as in each world region, followed by stroke. As SDI increased beyond 0.25, the highest CVD mortality shifted from women to men. CVD mortality decreased sharply for both sexes in countries with an SDI >0.75.

    CONCLUSIONS: CVDs remain a major cause of health loss for all regions of the world. Sociodemographic change over the past 25 years has been associated with dramatic declines in CVD in regions with very high SDI, but only a gradual decrease or no change in most regions. Future updates of the GBD study can be used to guide policymakers who are focused on reducing the overall burden of noncommunicable disease and achieving specific global health targets for CVD.

  14. Khalil I, Colombara DV, Forouzanfar MH, Troeger C, Daoud F, Moradi-Lakeh M, et al.
    Am J Trop Med Hyg, 2016 Dec 07;95(6):1319-1329.
    PMID: 27928080 DOI: 10.4269/ajtmh.16-0339
    Diarrheal diseases (DD) are leading causes of disease burden, death, and disability, especially in children in low-income settings. DD can also impact a child's potential livelihood through stunted physical growth, cognitive impairment, and other sequelae. As part of the Global Burden of Disease Study, we estimated DD burden, and the burden attributable to specific risk factors and particular etiologies, in the Eastern Mediterranean Region (EMR) between 1990 and 2013. For both sexes and all ages, we calculated disability-adjusted life years (DALYs), which are the sum of years of life lost and years lived with disability. We estimate that over 125,000 deaths (3.6% of total deaths) were due to DD in the EMR in 2013, with a greater burden of DD in low- and middle-income countries. Diarrhea deaths per 100,000 children under 5 years of age ranged from one (95% uncertainty interval [UI] = 0-1) in Bahrain and Oman to 471 (95% UI = 245-763) in Somalia. The pattern for diarrhea DALYs among those under 5 years of age closely followed that for diarrheal deaths. DALYs per 100,000 ranged from 739 (95% UI = 520-989) in Syria to 40,869 (95% UI = 21,540-65,823) in Somalia. Our results highlighted a highly inequitable burden of DD in EMR, mainly driven by the lack of access to proper resources such as water and sanitation. Our findings will guide preventive and treatment interventions which are based on evidence and which follow the ultimate goal of reducing the DD burden.
  15. Global Burden of Disease 2016 Injury Collaborators, Naghavi M, Marczak LB, Kutz M, Shackelford KA, Arora M, et al.
    JAMA, 2018 Aug 28;320(8):792-814.
    PMID: 30167700 DOI: 10.1001/jama.2018.10060
    IMPORTANCE: Understanding global variation in firearm mortality rates could guide prevention policies and interventions.

    OBJECTIVE: To estimate mortality due to firearm injury deaths from 1990 to 2016 in 195 countries and territories.

    DESIGN, SETTING, AND PARTICIPANTS: This study used deidentified aggregated data including 13 812 location-years of vital registration data to generate estimates of levels and rates of death by age-sex-year-location. The proportion of suicides in which a firearm was the lethal means was combined with an estimate of per capita gun ownership in a revised proxy measure used to evaluate the relationship between availability or access to firearms and firearm injury deaths.

    EXPOSURES: Firearm ownership and access.

    MAIN OUTCOMES AND MEASURES: Cause-specific deaths by age, sex, location, and year.

    RESULTS: Worldwide, it was estimated that 251 000 (95% uncertainty interval [UI], 195 000-276 000) people died from firearm injuries in 2016, with 6 countries (Brazil, United States, Mexico, Colombia, Venezuela, and Guatemala) accounting for 50.5% (95% UI, 42.2%-54.8%) of those deaths. In 1990, there were an estimated 209 000 (95% UI, 172 000 to 235 000) deaths from firearm injuries. Globally, the majority of firearm injury deaths in 2016 were homicides (64.0% [95% UI, 54.2%-68.0%]; absolute value, 161 000 deaths [95% UI, 107 000-182 000]); additionally, 27% were firearm suicide deaths (67 500 [95% UI, 55 400-84 100]) and 9% were unintentional firearm deaths (23 000 [95% UI, 18 200-24 800]). From 1990 to 2016, there was no significant decrease in the estimated global age-standardized firearm homicide rate (-0.2% [95% UI, -0.8% to 0.2%]). Firearm suicide rates decreased globally at an annualized rate of 1.6% (95% UI, 1.1-2.0), but in 124 of 195 countries and territories included in this study, these levels were either constant or significant increases were estimated. There was an annualized decrease of 0.9% (95% UI, 0.5%-1.3%) in the global rate of age-standardized firearm deaths from 1990 to 2016. Aggregate firearm injury deaths in 2016 were highest among persons aged 20 to 24 years (for men, an estimated 34 700 deaths [95% UI, 24 900-39 700] and for women, an estimated 3580 deaths [95% UI, 2810-4210]). Estimates of the number of firearms by country were associated with higher rates of firearm suicide (P 

  16. Global Burden of Disease Child and Adolescent Health Collaboration, Kassebaum N, Kyu HH, Zoeckler L, Olsen HE, Thomas K, et al.
    JAMA Pediatr, 2017 Jun 01;171(6):573-592.
    PMID: 28384795 DOI: 10.1001/jamapediatrics.2017.0250
    IMPORTANCE: Comprehensive and timely monitoring of disease burden in all age groups, including children and adolescents, is essential for improving population health.

    OBJECTIVE: To quantify and describe levels and trends of mortality and nonfatal health outcomes among children and adolescents from 1990 to 2015 to provide a framework for policy discussion.

    EVIDENCE REVIEW: Cause-specific mortality and nonfatal health outcomes were analyzed for 195 countries and territories by age group, sex, and year from 1990 to 2015 using standardized approaches for data processing and statistical modeling, with subsequent analysis of the findings to describe levels and trends across geography and time among children and adolescents 19 years or younger. A composite indicator of income, education, and fertility was developed (Socio-demographic Index [SDI]) for each geographic unit and year, which evaluates the historical association between SDI and health loss.

    FINDINGS: Global child and adolescent mortality decreased from 14.18 million (95% uncertainty interval [UI], 14.09 million to 14.28 million) deaths in 1990 to 7.26 million (95% UI, 7.14 million to 7.39 million) deaths in 2015, but progress has been unevenly distributed. Countries with a lower SDI had a larger proportion of mortality burden (75%) in 2015 than was the case in 1990 (61%). Most deaths in 2015 occurred in South Asia and sub-Saharan Africa. Global trends were driven by reductions in mortality owing to infectious, nutritional, and neonatal disorders, which in the aggregate led to a relative increase in the importance of noncommunicable diseases and injuries in explaining global disease burden. The absolute burden of disability in children and adolescents increased 4.3% (95% UI, 3.1%-5.6%) from 1990 to 2015, with much of the increase owing to population growth and improved survival for children and adolescents to older ages. Other than infectious conditions, many top causes of disability are associated with long-term sequelae of conditions present at birth (eg, neonatal disorders, congenital birth defects, and hemoglobinopathies) and complications of a variety of infections and nutritional deficiencies. Anemia, developmental intellectual disability, hearing loss, epilepsy, and vision loss are important contributors to childhood disability that can arise from multiple causes. Maternal and reproductive health remains a key cause of disease burden in adolescent females, especially in lower-SDI countries. In low-SDI countries, mortality is the primary driver of health loss for children and adolescents, whereas disability predominates in higher-SDI locations; the specific pattern of epidemiological transition varies across diseases and injuries.

    CONCLUSIONS AND RELEVANCE: Consistent international attention and investment have led to sustained improvements in causes of health loss among children and adolescents in many countries, although progress has been uneven. The persistence of infectious diseases in some countries, coupled with ongoing epidemiologic transition to injuries and noncommunicable diseases, require all countries to carefully evaluate and implement appropriate strategies to maximize the health of their children and adolescents and for the international community to carefully consider which elements of child and adolescent health should be monitored.

  17. Burstein R, Henry NJ, Collison ML, Marczak LB, Sligar A, Watson S, et al.
    Nature, 2019 Oct;574(7778):353-358.
    PMID: 31619795 DOI: 10.1038/s41586-019-1545-0
    Since 2000, many countries have achieved considerable success in improving child survival, but localized progress remains unclear. To inform efforts towards United Nations Sustainable Development Goal 3.2-to end preventable child deaths by 2030-we need consistently estimated data at the subnational level regarding child mortality rates and trends. Here we quantified, for the period 2000-2017, the subnational variation in mortality rates and number of deaths of neonates, infants and children under 5 years of age within 99 low- and middle-income countries using a geostatistical survival model. We estimated that 32% of children under 5 in these countries lived in districts that had attained rates of 25 or fewer child deaths per 1,000 live births by 2017, and that 58% of child deaths between 2000 and 2017 in these countries could have been averted in the absence of geographical inequality. This study enables the identification of high-mortality clusters, patterns of progress and geographical inequalities to inform appropriate investments and implementations that will help to improve the health of all populations.
  18. Global Burden of Disease Cancer Collaboration, Fitzmaurice C, Abate D, Abbasi N, Abbastabar H, Abd-Allah F, et al.
    JAMA Oncol, 2019 Dec 01;5(12):1749-1768.
    PMID: 31560378 DOI: 10.1001/jamaoncol.2019.2996
    IMPORTANCE: Cancer and other noncommunicable diseases (NCDs) are now widely recognized as a threat to global development. The latest United Nations high-level meeting on NCDs reaffirmed this observation and also highlighted the slow progress in meeting the 2011 Political Declaration on the Prevention and Control of Noncommunicable Diseases and the third Sustainable Development Goal. Lack of situational analyses, priority setting, and budgeting have been identified as major obstacles in achieving these goals. All of these have in common that they require information on the local cancer epidemiology. The Global Burden of Disease (GBD) study is uniquely poised to provide these crucial data.

    OBJECTIVE: To describe cancer burden for 29 cancer groups in 195 countries from 1990 through 2017 to provide data needed for cancer control planning.

    EVIDENCE REVIEW: We used the GBD study estimation methods to describe cancer incidence, mortality, years lived with disability, years of life lost, and disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs). Results are presented at the national level as well as by Socio-demographic Index (SDI), a composite indicator of income, educational attainment, and total fertility rate. We also analyzed the influence of the epidemiological vs the demographic transition on cancer incidence.

    FINDINGS: In 2017, there were 24.5 million incident cancer cases worldwide (16.8 million without nonmelanoma skin cancer [NMSC]) and 9.6 million cancer deaths. The majority of cancer DALYs came from years of life lost (97%), and only 3% came from years lived with disability. The odds of developing cancer were the lowest in the low SDI quintile (1 in 7) and the highest in the high SDI quintile (1 in 2) for both sexes. In 2017, the most common incident cancers in men were NMSC (4.3 million incident cases); tracheal, bronchus, and lung (TBL) cancer (1.5 million incident cases); and prostate cancer (1.3 million incident cases). The most common causes of cancer deaths and DALYs for men were TBL cancer (1.3 million deaths and 28.4 million DALYs), liver cancer (572 000 deaths and 15.2 million DALYs), and stomach cancer (542 000 deaths and 12.2 million DALYs). For women in 2017, the most common incident cancers were NMSC (3.3 million incident cases), breast cancer (1.9 million incident cases), and colorectal cancer (819 000 incident cases). The leading causes of cancer deaths and DALYs for women were breast cancer (601 000 deaths and 17.4 million DALYs), TBL cancer (596 000 deaths and 12.6 million DALYs), and colorectal cancer (414 000 deaths and 8.3 million DALYs).

    CONCLUSIONS AND RELEVANCE: The national epidemiological profiles of cancer burden in the GBD study show large heterogeneities, which are a reflection of different exposures to risk factors, economic settings, lifestyles, and access to care and screening. The GBD study can be used by policy makers and other stakeholders to develop and improve national and local cancer control in order to achieve the global targets and improve equity in cancer care.

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