Displaying publications 1 - 20 of 63 in total

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  1. Rendana M, Idris WMR
    J Infect Public Health, 2021 Oct;14(10):1320-1327.
    PMID: 34175236 DOI: 10.1016/j.jiph.2021.05.019
    BACKGROUND: World Health Organization has reported fifty countries have now detected the new coronavirus (B.1.1.7 variant) since a couple of months ago. In Indonesia, the B.1.1.7 cases have been found in several provinces since January 2021, although they are still in a lower number than the old variant of COVID-19. Therefore, this study aims to create a forecast analysis regarding the occasions of COVID-19 and B.1.1.7 cases based on data from the 1st January to 18th March 2021, and also analyze the association between meteorological factors with B.1.1.7 incidences in three different provinces of Indonesia such as the West Java, South Sumatra and East Kalimantan.

    METHODS: We used the Autoregressive Moving Average Models (ARIMA) to forecast the number of cases in the upcoming 14 days and the Spearman correlation analysis to analyze the relationship between B.1.1.7 cases and meteorological variables such as temperature, humidity, rainfall, sunshine, and wind speed.

    RESULTS: The results of the study showed the fitted ARIMA models forecasted there was an increase in the daily cases in three provinces. The total cases in three provinces would increase by 36% (West Java), 13.5% (South Sumatra), and 30% (East Kalimantan) as compared with actual cases until the end of 14 days later. The temperature, rainfall and sunshine factors were the main contributors for B.1.1.7 cases with each correlation coefficients; r = -0.230; p < 0.05, r = 0.211; p < 0.05 and r = -0.418; p < 0.01, respectively.

    CONCLUSIONS: We recapitulated that this investigation was the first preliminary study to analyze a short-term forecast regarding COVID-19 and B.1.1.7 cases as well as to determine the associated meteorological factors that become primary contributors to the virus spread.

    Matched MeSH terms: Indonesia/epidemiology
  2. Harapan H, Wagner AL, Yufika A, Winardi W, Anwar S, Gan AK, et al.
    Front Public Health, 2020;8:381.
    PMID: 32760691 DOI: 10.3389/fpubh.2020.00381
    Introduction: Several vaccine candidates are being clinically tested in response to the 2019 coronavirus disease (COVID-19) pandemic. This study was conducted to assess the acceptance of a 50 or 95% effective COVID-19 vaccine, when it becomes available in southeast Asia, among the general population in Indonesia. Methods: A cross-sectional online survey was conducted between March 25 and April 6, 2020. Participants were asked if they would accept a free vaccine which was 95 or 50% effective. Using a logistic regression model, we assessed the associations between sociodemographic characteristics, exposure to COVID-19 information, or perceived risk of infection with acceptance of a hypothetical COVID-19 vaccine. Results: Among 1,359 respondents, 93.3% of respondents (1,268/1,359) would like to be vaccinated for a 95% effective vaccine, but this acceptance decreased to 67.0% (911/1,359) for a vaccine with 50% effectiveness. For a 95% effective vaccine, being a healthcare worker and having a higher perceived risk of COVID-19 infection were associated with higher acceptance, adjusted odds ratio (aOR): 2.01; 95%CI: 1.01, 4.00 and aOR: 2.21; 95%CI: 1.07, 4.59, respectively; compared to civil servants, being retired was associated with less acceptance (aOR: 0.15; 95%CI: 0.04, 0.63). For a 50% effective vaccine, being a healthcare worker was also associated with greater acceptance, aOR: 1.57; 95%CI: 1.12, 2.20. Conclusion: Acceptance of a COVID-19 vaccine was highly influenced by the baseline effectiveness of the vaccine. Preparing the general population to accept a vaccine with relatively low effectiveness may be difficult.
    Matched MeSH terms: Indonesia/epidemiology
  3. Suryani G, Jehosua SY, Herlyani K, Zhi-Jien C, Kheng-Seang L
    Epilepsy Behav, 2021 10;123:108244.
    PMID: 34461382 DOI: 10.1016/j.yebeh.2021.108244
    BACKGROUND: Indonesia is the largest island country in the world with diverse ethnicity and cultural backgrounds. This study aimed to understand the variation in attitudes toward epilepsy among the Javanese, Sundanese, and the Minahasa ethnic groups in Indonesia.

    METHOD: This study recruited Sundanese from Tasikmalaya and Minahasan from Manado using the Indonesian Public Attitudes Toward Epilepsy (PATE) scale. The results were compared to the Javanese and Malaysian data in previous studies.

    RESULT: A total of 200 respondents, 100 from each ethnic group were recruited, with a mean age of 38.51 years. They were predominantly females (54%) and had secondary education level or lower (56.67%). The Javanese had a higher total mean score, indicating poorer attitudes toward epilepsy, as compared to the Minahasan and Sundanese groups. These differences were noted in the personal domain, but not the general domain. There were no significant differences in the mean scores in both personal and general domains between the Minahasan, Sundanese, and Malaysian populations. Subanalysis on the aspects of life showed that the Javanese had a significantly higher score in the aspects of education, marital relationship, and employment.

    CONCLUSION: The attitudes toward epilepsy were similar between the Indonesian (Sundanese and the Minahasan) and Malaysian, except the Javanese with poorer attitude. These differences could be socioeconomically or culturally related.

    Matched MeSH terms: Indonesia/epidemiology
  4. Li ZZ, Liu G, Tao R, Lobont OR
    Front Public Health, 2021;9:699821.
    PMID: 34568255 DOI: 10.3389/fpubh.2021.699821
    This paper aims to determine the existence of convergence in health expenditures among Association for South East Asian Nations (ASEAN) countries. Based on the SPSM procedure and panel KSS unit root test results, the public health expenditures (PUHE) in Indonesia, Lao PDR, Cambodia, the Philippines, and Myanmar are converging, while that of Brunei Darussalam, Malaysia, Vietnam, Singapore, and Thailand are diverging. In addition, the sequences of private health expenditures (PRHE) in ASEAN member states are stationary, which implies convergence. This finding is in accordance with Wagner's law, that is, as nations develop, they are forced to expand public expenditure. Specifically, countries with low levels of PUHE tend to catch up with the high health spending countries. This research has policy implications with regard to the convergence of health expenditure across countries. The government in low- and lower-middle income countries should raise PUHE to provide access to health services for those who are unaffordable individuals.
    Matched MeSH terms: Indonesia/epidemiology
  5. Ling HN
    Lepr Rev, 2014 Dec;85(4):332-5.
    PMID: 25675658
    Matched MeSH terms: Indonesia/epidemiology
  6. Setiati S, Marsigit J
    Acta Med Indones, 2021 Jan;53(1):1-4.
    PMID: 33818400
    It has been a year since the Indonesian government announced its first COVID-19 identified in Jakarta. Since then, there have been more than 900,000 cases in Indonesia with case fatality rate (CFR) of 2.9%. The number of new cases per day is now ranging from 9,000 cases to almost 13,000 cases. Not only in Indonesia, but the number of new cases along with the mortality rate in other countries, such as Malaysia, Japan, United States, and Europe region also increased dramatically. COVID-19 vaccines are being investigated and the world hopes that vaccines will be the answer to tackle this pandemic. Is it really so? Immunization is an effort to induce immunity in individuals to prevent a disease or the complication related to the diseases that may be catastrophic. Immunization can be divided into passive, which is by giving certain type of antibody and active, which means that either we get the disease, or we get the antigen injected into our body.Having prior vaccination or past COVID-19 does not mean that someone is totally immune to COVID-19 as a recent study suggested that the antibody related to COVID-19 past infection is significantly decreasing after 3 months post-infection. Compliance to implementation of health protocol remained the most crucial strategy during this pandemic.
    Matched MeSH terms: Indonesia/epidemiology
  7. Ismail M, Alsalahi A, Khaza'ai H, Imam MU, Ooi J, Samsudin MN, et al.
    PMID: 32731336 DOI: 10.3390/ijerph17155410
    BACKGROUND: Cerebrovascular diseases (CBVDs) and diabetes mellitus (DM) are interrelated and cumbersome global health burdens. However, the relationship between edible oils consumption and mortality burdens of CBVDs and DM has not yet been evaluated. This review aims to explore correlations between per capita mortality burdens of CBVDs and DM, as well as food consumption of palm or soya oils in 11 randomly selected countries in 2005, 2010, and 2016.

    METHODS: After obtaining data on food consumption of palm and soya oils and mortality burdens of CBVDs and DM, correlations between the consumption of oils and mortality burdens of diseases were explored.

    RESULTS: There was a positive correlation between the consumption of soya oil with the mortality burden of CBVDs in Australia, Switzerland, and Indonesia, as well as the mortality burden of DM in the USA. The consumption of palm oil had a positive correlation with the mortality burden of DM in Jordan only.

    CONCLUSIONS: Food consumption of soya oil in several countries possibly contributes to the mortality burden of CBVDs or DM more than food consumption of palm oil, which could be a possible risk factor in the mortality burdens of CBVDs and DM.

    Matched MeSH terms: Indonesia/epidemiology
  8. Efendie B, Abdullah I, Yusuf E
    Sr Care Pharm, 2020 Nov 01;35(11):484-486.
    PMID: 33121570 DOI: 10.4140/TCP.n.2020.484
    The pandemic has affected all walks of life and businesses, including education at all levels. Movement controls have forced the schools and universities to migrate the teaching and learning to be fully online. Some universities in large cities in Malyasia had already implemented blended learning and thus, were better prepared to adjust to the current situation. However, the universities, which practiced mainly traditional didactic courses, were struggling to suddenly change the mode of delivery. Many relied on the creativity of the lecturers and students.
    Matched MeSH terms: Indonesia/epidemiology
  9. Pasangna J, George E, Nagaratnam M
    Malays J Pathol, 2005 Jun;27(1):33-7.
    PMID: 16676691
    A 2-year-old Malay boy was brought to the University Malaya Medical Centre for thalassaemia screening. Physical examination revealed thalassaemia facies, pallor, mild jaundice, hepatomegaly and splenomegaly. Laboratory investigations on the patient including studies on the parents lead to a presumptive diagnosis of homozygous Haemoglobin Lepore (Hb Lepore). The aim of this paper is to increase awareness of this rare disorder, this being the first case documented in Malaysia in a Malay. The case also demonstrates the need for this disorder to be included in the differential diagnosis of patients presenting clinically like thalassemia intermedia or thalassemia major. Accurate diagnosis would provide information necessary for prenatal diagnosis, proper clinical management and genetic counseling. The clinical, haematological and laboratory features of this disorder are discussed in this paper.
    Matched MeSH terms: Indonesia/epidemiology
  10. Bakker MJ, van Dijk JG, Pramono A, Sutarni S, Tijssen MA
    Mov Disord, 2013 Mar;28(3):370-9.
    PMID: 23283702 DOI: 10.1002/mds.25280
    The nature of culture-specific startles syndromes such as "Latah" in Indonesia and Malaysia is ill understood. Hypotheses concerning their origin include sociocultural behavior, psychiatric disorders, and neurological syndromes. The various disorders show striking similarities despite occurring in diverse cultural settings and genetically distant populations. They are characterized clinically by exaggerated startle responses and involuntary vocalizations, echolalia, and echopraxia. Quantifying startle reflexes may help define Latah within the 3 groups of startle syndromes: (1) hyperekplexia, (2) startle-induced disorders, and (3) neuropsychiatric startle syndromes. Twelve female Latah patients (mean age, 44.6 years; SD, 7.7 years) and 12 age-, sex- and socioeconomically matched controls (mean age, 42.3 year; SD, 8.0) were studied using structured history taking and neurological examination including provocation of vocalizations, echolalia, and echopraxia. We quantified auditory startle reflexes with electromyographic activity of 6 left-sided muscles following 104-dB tones. We defined 2 phases for the startle response: a short latency motor startle reflex initiated in the lower brain stem <100/120 ms) and a later, second phase more influenced by psychological factors (the "orienting reflex," 100/120-1000 ms after the stimulus). Early as well as late motor startle responses were significantly increased in patients compared with controls (P ≤ .05). Following their startle response, Latah patients showed stereotyped responses including vocalizations and echo phenomena. Startle responses were increased, but clinically these proved insignificant compared with the stereotyped behavioral responses following the startle response. This study supports the classification of Latah as a "neuropsychiatric startle syndrome."
    Matched MeSH terms: Indonesia/epidemiology
  11. Kotaki T, Yamanaka A, Mulyatno KC, Churrotin S, Sucipto TH, Labiqah A, et al.
    Infect Genet Evol, 2016 Jan;37:88-93.
    PMID: 26553170 DOI: 10.1016/j.meegid.2015.11.002
    Indonesia is one of the biggest dengue endemic countries, and, thus, is an important place to investigate the evolution of dengue virus (DENV). We have continuously isolated DENV in Surabaya, the second biggest city in Indonesia, since 2008. We previously reported sequential changes in the predominant serotype from DENV type 2 (DENV-2) to DENV type 1 (DENV-1) in November 2008 and from DENV-1 to DENV-2 in July 2013. The predominance of DENV-2 continued in 2014, but not in 2015. We herein phylogenetically investigated DENV-2 transitions in Surabaya between 2008 and 2014 to analyze the divergence and evolution of DENV-2 concomitant with serotype shifts. All DENV-2 isolated in Surabaya were classified into the Cosmopolitan genotype, and further divided into 6 clusters. Clusters 1-3, dominated by Surabaya strains, were defined as the "Surabaya lineage". Clusters 4-6, dominated by strains from Singapore, Malaysia, and many parts of Indonesia, were the "South East Asian lineage". The most recent common ancestor of these strains existed in 1988, coinciding with the time that an Indonesian dengue outbreak took place. Cluster 1 appeared to be unique because no other DENV-2 isolate was included in this cluster. The predominance of DENV-2 in 2008 and 2013-14 were caused by cluster 1, whereas clusters 2 and 3 sporadically emerged in 2011 and 2012. The characteristic amino acids of cluster 1, E-170V and E-282Y, may be responsible for its prevalence in Surabaya. No amino acid difference was observed in the envelope region between strains in 2008 and 2013-14, suggesting that the re-emergence of DENV-2 in Surabaya was due to the loss or decrease of herd immunity in the 5-year period when DENV-2 subsided. The South East Asian lineage primarily emerged in Surabaya in 2014, probably imported from other parts of Indonesia or foreign countries.
    Matched MeSH terms: Indonesia/epidemiology
  12. Jamal F
    Vaccine, 1999 Jul 30;17 Suppl 1:S75-8.
    PMID: 10471186
    Matched MeSH terms: Indonesia/epidemiology
  13. Lubis IND, Wijaya H, Lubis M, Lubis CP, Divis PCS, Beshir KB, et al.
    J Infect Dis, 2017 Apr 01;215(7):1148-1155.
    PMID: 28201638 DOI: 10.1093/infdis/jix091
    Background: As Indonesia works toward the goal of malaria elimination, information is lacking on malaria epidemiology from some western provinces. As a basis for studies of antimalarial efficacy, we set out to survey parasite carriage in 3 communities in North Sumatera Province.

    Methods: A combination of active and passive detection of infection was carried out among communities in Batubara, Langkat, and South Nias regencies. Finger-prick blood samples from consenting individuals of all ages provided blood films for microscopic examination and blood spots on filter paper. Plasmodium species were identified using nested polymerase chain reaction (PCR) of ribosomal RNA genes and a novel assay that amplifies a conserved sequence specific for the sicavar gene family of Plasmodium knowlesi.

    Results: Of 3731 participants, 614 (16.5%) were positive for malaria parasites by microscopy. PCR detected parasite DNA in samples from 1169 individuals (31.3%). In total, 377 participants (11.8%) harbored P. knowlesi. Also present were Plasmodium vivax (14.3%), Plasmodium falciparum (10.5%) and Plasmodium malariae (3.4%).

    Conclusions: Amplification of sicavar is a specific and sensitive test for the presence of P. knowlesi DNA in humans. Subpatent and asymptomatic multispecies parasitemia is relatively common in North Sumatera, so PCR-based surveillance is required to support control and elimination activities.

    Matched MeSH terms: Indonesia/epidemiology
  14. Sahimin N, Lim YAL, Douadi B, Mohd Khalid MKN, Wilson JJ, Behnke JM, et al.
    Acta Trop, 2017 Sep;173:109-115.
    PMID: 28610937 DOI: 10.1016/j.actatropica.2017.06.011
    Ongoing urbanisation of the working population as well as cross-border migration of workers particularly into large cities has contributed to the development and growth of urban slums. These deprived areas are conducive for the transmission of intestinal pathogens including hookworm. The aim of this study was to determine both the prevalence and species identity of hookworm infections among the migrant worker community in Malaysia. A total of 388 faecal samples were collected from migrant workers between September 2014 and August 2015, representing workers from five employment sectors: construction, manufacturing, agriculture and plantations, food services and domestic services. Faecal samples were examined by microscopy and positive samples were subjected to molecular analysis. A total of 51 samples (13.1%) were positive by microscopy for hookworm infections. A two-step PCR based method amplifying a fragment of the 28S rRNA-ITS2 region was used to identify infections by Necator americanus and Ancylostoma spp. PCR products positive for Ancylostoma spp. were sequenced bidirectionally, and sequences analysed through BLAST and phylogenetic analysis. Samples containing Ancylostoma duodenale were further characterized by amplification and sequencing a fragment of cytochrome c oxidase subunit 1 (cox1) gene. PCR amplicons were successfully obtained from 42 (82.4%) of 51 samples, with 81.0% (34 of 42) identified as Necator americanus, 16.7% (7 of 42) as Ancylostoma spp. and 2.4% (1 of 42) as mixed infections of both species. All eight Ancylostoma spp. were confirmed to be Ancylostoma duodenale and this is the first time A. duodenale was reported in Malaysia. Samples containing A. duodenale from Nepalese and Indonesian workers shared high-similarity and were distinct compared to sequences from other countries. This study highlights the prevalence of hookworm infections among migrant workers living in Malaysia. Our findings underscore the necessity of screening migrant workers for hookworm infections, particularly those working in food-related services and industries.
    Matched MeSH terms: Indonesia/epidemiology
  15. Fornace KM, Surendra H, Abidin TR, Reyes R, Macalinao MLM, Stresman G, et al.
    Int J Health Geogr, 2018 06 18;17(1):21.
    PMID: 29914506 DOI: 10.1186/s12942-018-0141-0
    BACKGROUND: Identifying fine-scale spatial patterns of disease is essential for effective disease control and elimination programmes. In low resource areas without formal addresses, novel strategies are needed to locate residences of individuals attending health facilities in order to efficiently map disease patterns. We aimed to assess the use of Android tablet-based applications containing high resolution maps to geolocate individual residences, whilst comparing the functionality, usability and cost of three software packages designed to collect spatial information.

    RESULTS: Using Open Data Kit GeoODK, we designed and piloted an electronic questionnaire for rolling cross sectional surveys of health facility attendees as part of a malaria elimination campaign in two predominantly rural sites in the Rizal, Palawan, the Philippines and Kulon Progo Regency, Yogyakarta, Indonesia. The majority of health workers were able to use the tablets effectively, including locating participant households on electronic maps. For all households sampled (n = 603), health facility workers were able to retrospectively find the participant household using the Global Positioning System (GPS) coordinates and data collected by tablet computers. Median distance between actual house locations and points collected on the tablet was 116 m (IQR 42-368) in Rizal and 493 m (IQR 258-886) in Kulon Progo Regency. Accuracy varied between health facilities and decreased in less populated areas with fewer prominent landmarks.

    CONCLUSIONS: Results demonstrate the utility of this approach to develop real-time high-resolution maps of disease in resource-poor environments. This method provides an attractive approach for quickly obtaining spatial information on individuals presenting at health facilities in resource poor areas where formal addresses are unavailable and internet connectivity is limited. Further research is needed on how to integrate these with other health data management systems and implement in a wider operational context.

    Matched MeSH terms: Indonesia/epidemiology
  16. Harahap H, Sandjaja S, Soekatri M, Khouw I, Deurenberg P
    Asia Pac J Clin Nutr, 2017 12 10;27(1):211-216.
    PMID: 29222901 DOI: 10.6133/apjcn.032017.05
    BACKGROUND AND OBJECTIVES: Indonesia is currently facing double burden malnutrition in children. As overweight and obesity are due to a disturbed energy balance, this study aimed to assess the association of total energy intake and physical activity with the prevalence of overweight among Indonesian children.

    METHODS AND STUDY DESIGN: The data used for this analysis were from 1143 children, 6-12 years old, that participated in the South East Asian Nutrition Survey (SEANUTS). Physical activity (PA) was measured using pedometers for 2 consecutive days and was categorized low, moderate and high. Child nutritional status was categorized based on body mass index for age z-scores (BAZ) into normal weight (-2 SD ≤BAZ≤1 SD) or overweight (BAZ >1 SD). Energy intake was calculated from a one day 24 hour recall and compared to the Indonesian recommended dietary allowance (RDA) for energy.

    RESULTS: Children with low PA had higher risk (ODDs 3.4, 95% CI: 2.0, 6.0) of being overweight compared to children who had high PA. Children with moderate PA and energy take >100% RDA had higher risk (ODDs 4.2, 95% CI 1.9, 9.3) of being overweight than children with high PA and energy intakes ≤100% RDA.

    CONCLUSIONS: Low physical activity independently or moderate physical activity and high energy intake are risk factors for Indonesian children to get overweight. Program intervention such as increasing physical activity at school and home is needed to reduce overweight among children.

    Matched MeSH terms: Indonesia/epidemiology
  17. Harapan H, Rajamoorthy Y, Anwar S, Bustamam A, Radiansyah A, Angraini P, et al.
    BMC Infect Dis, 2018 02 27;18(1):96.
    PMID: 29486714 DOI: 10.1186/s12879-018-3006-z
    BACKGROUND: The Indonesian region of Aceh was the area most severely affected by the earthquake and tsunami of 26 December 2004. Department of Health data reveal an upward trend of dengue cases in Aceh since the events of the tsunami. Despite the increasing incidence of dengue in the region, there is limited understanding of dengue among the general population of Aceh. The aim of this study was to assess the knowledge, attitude, and practice (KAP) regarding dengue among the people of Aceh, Indonesia in order to design intervention strategies for an effective dengue prevention program.

    METHODS: A community-based cross-sectional study was conducted in Aceh between November 2014 and March 2015 with a total of 609 participants living in seven regencies and two municipalities. Information on the socio-demographic characteristics of participants and their KAP regarding dengue was collected using a pre-tested structured questionnaire. The KAP status (good vs. poor) of participants with different socio-demographic characteristics was compared using Chi Square-test, ANOVA or Fisher's exact test as appropriate. Logistic regression analysis was used to determine the predictors of each KAP domain.

    RESULTS: We found that 45% of participants had good knowledge regarding dengue and only 32% had good attitudes and good dengue preventive practices. There was a significant positive correlation between knowledge and attitudes, knowledge and practice, and attitudes and practice. In addition, people who had good knowledge were 2.7 times more likely to have good attitudes, and people who had good attitudes were 2.2 times more likely to have good practices regarding dengue. The level of education, occupation, marital status, monthly income, socioeconomic status (SES) and living in the city were associated with the knowledge level. Occupation, SES, and having experienced dengue fever were associated with attitudes. Education, occupation, SES and type of residence were associated with preventive practices.

    CONCLUSION: Our study suggests that dengue prevention programs are required to increase KAP levels regarding dengue in the communities of Aceh.

    Matched MeSH terms: Indonesia/epidemiology
  18. van der Eng P, Sohn K
    Econ Hum Biol, 2019 08;34:216-224.
    PMID: 30551996 DOI: 10.1016/j.ehb.2018.11.004
    This article analyses long-term changes in the mean age at menarche (MAM) as a biological indicator of changes in the standard of living in Indonesia. It finds that MAM was about 15.5 for birth cohorts in the late-19th century, decreasing to 14.5 by the 1930s, at which level it stagnated until the gradual decrease resumed since the early 1960s to around 12.5 in the mid-2000s. The article considers that long-term improvements in nutrition, educational attainment and health care explain these trends. An international comparison of long-term changes finds that MAM in Indonesia was much lower than in Korea and China until respectively 1970 and 1990, but comparable to Japan until 1950 and to Malaysia until 1930. The article presents reasons why these differences are unlikely to be related to dissimilarities in climate and ethnicity, and concludes that they are indicative of relative standards of living.
    Matched MeSH terms: Indonesia/epidemiology
  19. Post LA, Lin JS, Moss CB, Murphy RL, Ison MG, Achenbach CJ, et al.
    J Med Internet Res, 2021 02 01;23(2):e25454.
    PMID: 33464207 DOI: 10.2196/25454
    BACKGROUND: The COVID-19 pandemic has had a profound global impact on governments, health care systems, economies, and populations around the world. Within the East Asia and Pacific region, some countries have mitigated the spread of the novel coronavirus effectively and largely avoided severe negative consequences, while others still struggle with containment. As the second wave reaches East Asia and the Pacific, it becomes more evident that additional SARS-CoV-2 surveillance is needed to track recent shifts, rates of increase, and persistence associated with the pandemic.

    OBJECTIVE: The goal of this study is to provide advanced surveillance metrics for COVID-19 transmission that account for speed, acceleration, jerk, persistence, and weekly shifts, to better understand country risk for explosive growth and those countries who are managing the pandemic successfully. Existing surveillance coupled with our dynamic metrics of transmission will inform health policy to control the COVID-19 pandemic until an effective vaccine is developed. We provide novel indicators to measure disease transmission.

    METHODS: Using a longitudinal trend analysis study design, we extracted 330 days of COVID-19 data from public health registries. We used an empirical difference equation to measure the daily number of cases in East Asia and the Pacific as a function of the prior number of cases, the level of testing, and weekly shift variables based on a dynamic panel model that was estimated using the generalized method of moments approach by implementing the Arellano-Bond estimator in R.

    RESULTS: The standard surveillance metrics for Indonesia, the Philippines, and Myanmar were concerning as they had the largest new caseloads at 4301, 2588, and 1387, respectively. When looking at the acceleration of new COVID-19 infections, we found that French Polynesia, Malaysia, and the Philippines had rates at 3.17, 0.22, and 0.06 per 100,000. These three countries also ranked highest in terms of jerk at 15.45, 0.10, and 0.04, respectively.

    CONCLUSIONS: Two of the most populous countries in East Asia and the Pacific, Indonesia and the Philippines, have alarming surveillance metrics. These two countries rank highest in new infections in the region. The highest rates of speed, acceleration, and positive upwards jerk belong to French Polynesia, Malaysia, and the Philippines, and may result in explosive growth. While all countries in East Asia and the Pacific need to be cautious about reopening their countries since outbreaks are likely to occur in the second wave of COVID-19, the country of greatest concern is the Philippines. Based on standard and enhanced surveillance, the Philippines has not gained control of the COVID-19 epidemic, which is particularly troubling because the country ranks 4th in population in the region. Without extreme and rigid social distancing, quarantines, hygiene, and masking to reverse trends, the Philippines will remain on the global top 5 list of worst COVID-19 outbreaks resulting in high morbidity and mortality. The second wave will only exacerbate existing conditions and increase COVID-19 transmissions.

    Matched MeSH terms: Indonesia/epidemiology
  20. Cassol S, Weniger BG, Babu PG, Salminen MO, Zheng X, Htoon MT, et al.
    AIDS Res Hum Retroviruses, 1996 Oct 10;12(15):1435-41.
    PMID: 8893051
    Global surveillance of HIV-1 subtypes for genetic characterization is hampered by the biohazard of processing and the difficulties of shipping whole blood or cells from many developing country regions. We developed a technique for the direct automated sequencing of viral DNA from dried blood spot (DBS) specimens collected on absorbent paper, which can be mailed unrefrigerated in sturdy paper envelopes with low biohazard risk. DBS were collected nonrandomly from HIV-1-infected, mostly asymptomatic, patients in five Asian countries in 1991, and shipped via airmail or hand carried without refrigeration to Bangkok, and then transshipped to North America for processing. After more than 2 years of storage, including 6 months at ambient temperatures, proviral DNA in the DBS was amplified by nested PCR, and a 389-nucleotide segment of the C2-V3 env gene region was sequenced, from which 287 base pairs were aligned and subtyped by phylogenetic analysis with neighbor-joining and other methods. From southern India, there were 25 infections with subtype C and 2 with subtype A. From Myanmar (Burma), we identified the first subtype E infection, as well as six subtype BB, a distinct cluster within subtype B that was first discovered in Thailand and that has now appeared in China, Malaysia, and Japan. From southwest China, one BB was identified, while a "classical" B typical of North American and European strains was found in Indonesia. From Thailand, five DBS of ambiguous serotype were identified as three B, one BB, and one E. A blinded control serotype E specimen was correctly identified, but a serotype BB control was not tested. Most HIV-1 in southern India appears to be env subtype C, with rare A, as others have reported in western and northern India. The subtypes BB and E in Myanmar, and the BB in China, suggest epidemiological linkage with these subtypes in neighboring Thailand. DBS are a practical, economical technique for conducting large-scale molecular epidemiological surveillance to track the global distribution and spread of HIV-1 variants.
    Matched MeSH terms: Indonesia/epidemiology
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