DESIGN: In this study, a descriptive analysis was undertaken to describe seasonality trends and/or overlap between COVID-19 and influenza in 12 low-income and middle-income countries using Our World in Data and FluMart data sources. Plots of COVID-19 and influenza cases were analysed.
SETTING: Singapore, Thailand, Malaysia, the Philippines, Argentina, Brazil, Mexico, South Africa, Morocco, Bahrain, Qatar and Saudi Arabia.
OUTCOME MEASURES: COVID-19 cases and influenza cases.
RESULTS: No seasonal patterns of SARS-CoV-2 or SARS-CoV-2/influenza cocirculation were observed in most countries, even when considering the avian influenza pandemic period.
CONCLUSIONS: These results can inform public health strategies. The lack of observed seasonal behaviour highlights the importance of maintaining year-round vaccination rather than implementing seasonal campaigns. Further research investigating the influence of climate conditions, social behaviour and year-round preventive measures could be fundamental for shaping appropriate policies related to COVID-19 and respiratory viral disease control in low-income and middle-income countries as COVID-19 variant data and epidemiologic patterns accrue over time.
METHODS: In this prospective, observational study (IDAMS), we included patients aged 5 years and older with undifferentiated fever at presentation from 26 outpatient facilities in eight countries (Bangladesh, Brazil, Cambodia, El Salvador, Indonesia, Malaysia, Venezuela, and Viet Nam). We used multivariable logistic regression to investigate the association between clinical symptoms and laboratory tests with dengue versus other febrile illnesses between day 2 and day 5 after onset of fever (ie, illness days). We built a set of candidate regression models including clinical and laboratory variables to reflect the need of a comprehensive versus parsimonious approach. We assessed performance of these models via standard measures of diagnostic values.
FINDINGS: Between Oct 18, 2011, and Aug 4, 2016, we recruited 7428 patients, of whom 2694 (36%) were diagnosed with laboratory-confirmed dengue and 2495 (34%) with (non-dengue) other febrile illnesses and met inclusion criteria, and were included in the analysis. 2703 (52%) of 5189 included patients were younger than 15 years, 2486 (48%) were aged 15 years or older, 2179 (42%) were female and 3010 (58%) were male. Platelet count, white blood cell count, and the change in these variables from the previous day of illness had a strong association with dengue. Cough and rhinitis had strong associations with other febrile illnesses, whereas bleeding, anorexia, and skin flush were generally associated with dengue. Model performance increased between day 2 and 5 of illness. The comprehensive model (18 clinical and laboratory predictors) had sensitivities of 0·80 to 0·87 and specificities of 0·80 to 0·91, whereas the parsimonious model (eight clinical and laboratory predictors) had sensitivities of 0·80 to 0·88 and specificities of 0·81 to 0·89. A model that includes laboratory markers that are easy to measure (eg, platelet count or white blood cell count) outperformed the models based on clinical variables only.
INTERPRETATION: Our results confirm the important role of platelet and white blood cell counts in diagnosing dengue, and the importance of serial measurements over subsequent days. We successfully quantified the performance of clinical and laboratory markers covering the early period of dengue. Resulting algorithms performed better than published schemes for distinction of dengue from other febrile illnesses, and take into account the dynamic changes over time. Our results provide crucial information needed for the update of guidelines, including the Integrated Management of Childhood Illness handbook.
FUNDING: EU's Seventh Framework Programme.
TRANSLATIONS: For the Bangla, Bahasa Indonesia, Portuguese, Khmer, Spanish and Vietnamese translations of the abstract see Supplementary Materials section.
METHODS: Randomised patients (N = 900) received monthly subcutaneous injections of placebo, erenumab 70 mg, or 140 mg (3:3:2) for 3 months. Primary endpoint was change from baseline in monthly migraine days at Month 3. Other endpoints included achievement of ≥50%, ≥75%, and 100% reduction in monthly migraine days, change in monthly acute migraine-specific medication treatment days, patient-reported outcomes, and safety assessment.
RESULTS: At baseline, mean (standard deviation) age was 37.5 (9.9) years, 81.9% were women, and monthly migraine days was 8.2 (2.8). At Month 3, change from baseline in monthly migraine days (primary endpoint) was -3.1, -4.2, and -4.8 days for placebo, erenumab 70 mg, and erenumab 140 mg, respectively, with a statistically significant difference for erenumab versus placebo (P = 0.002 [70 mg], P Latin America met all primary and secondary endpoints. A consistent numerical benefit was observed with erenumab 140 mg versus erenumab 70 mg across all efficacy endpoints. These findings extend evidence of erenumab's efficacy and safety to patients under-represented in previous trials.ClinicalTrials.gov identifier: NCT03333109.
METHODS: We implemented a multidimensional approach and an 8-component bundle in 374 ICUs across 35 low and middle-income countries (LMICs) from Latin-America, Asia, Eastern-Europe, and the Middle-East, to reduce VAP rates in ICUs. The VAP rate per 1000 mechanical ventilator (MV)-days was measured at baseline and during intervention at the 2nd month, 3rd month, 4-15 month, 16-27 month, and 28-39 month periods.
RESULTS: 174,987 patients, during 1,201,592 patient-days, used 463,592 MV-days. VAP per 1000 MV-days rates decreased from 28.46 at baseline to 17.58 at the 2nd month (RR = 0.61; 95% CI = 0.58-0.65; P
RESULTS: We use whole-genome sequencing to examine the origin and adaptation of 524 global weedy rice samples representing all major regions of rice cultivation. Weed populations have evolved multiple times from cultivated rice, and a strikingly high proportion of contemporary Asian weed strains can be traced to a few Green Revolution cultivars that were widely grown in the late twentieth century. Latin American weedy rice stands out in having originated through extensive hybridization. Selection scans indicate that most genomic regions underlying weedy adaptations do not overlap with domestication targets of selection, suggesting that feralization occurs largely through changes at loci unrelated to domestication.
CONCLUSIONS: This is the first investigation to provide detailed genomic characterizations of weedy rice on a global scale, and the results reveal diverse genetic mechanisms underlying worldwide convergent rice feralization.
METHODS: The study was undertaken in five Latin American (Brazil, Colombia, Dominican Republic, Mexico, Peru) and five in Asian countries (Indonesia, Malaysia, Maldives, Sri Lanka, Vietnam). A mixed-methods approach was used which included document analysis, key informant interviews, focus-group discussions, secondary data analysis and consensus building by an international dengue expert meeting organised by the World Health Organization, Special Program for Research and Training in Tropical Diseases (WHO-TDR).
RESULTS: Country information on dengue is based on compulsory notification and reporting ("passive surveillance"), with laboratory confirmation (in all participating Latin American countries and some Asian countries) or by using a clinical syndromic definition. Seven countries additionally had sentinel sites with active dengue reporting, some also had virological surveillance. Six had agreed a formal definition of a dengue outbreak separate to seasonal variation in case numbers. Countries collected data on a range of warning signs that may identify outbreaks early, but none had developed a systematic approach to identifying and responding to the early stages of an outbreak. Outbreak response plans varied in quality, particularly regarding the early response. The surge capacity of hospitals with recent dengue outbreaks varied; those that could mobilise additional staff, beds, laboratory support and resources coped best in comparison to those improvising a coping strategy during the outbreak. Hospital outbreak management plans were present in 9/22 participating hospitals in Latin-America and 8/20 participating hospitals in Asia.
CONCLUSIONS: Considerable variation between countries was observed with regard to surveillance, outbreak detection, and response. Through discussion at the expert meeting, suggestions were made for the development of a more standardised approach in the form of a model contingency plan, with agreed outbreak definitions and country-specific risk assessment schemes to initiate early response activities according to the outbreak phase. This would also allow greater cross-country sharing of ideas.
METHOD: We estimated the two conditions for a Zika outbreak emergence in Southeast Asia: (i) the risk of Zika introduction from Latin America and the Caribbean and, (ii) the risk of autochthonous transmission under varying assumptions on population immunity. We also validated the model used to estimate the risk of introduction by comparing the estimated number of Zika seeds introduced into the United States with case counts reported by the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC).
RESULTS: There was good agreement between our estimates and case counts reported by the CDC. We thus applied the model to Southeast Asia and estimated that, on average, 1-10 seeds were introduced into Indonesia, Malaysia, the Philippines, Singapore, Thailand and Vietnam. We also found increasing population immunity levels from 0 to 90% reduced probability of autochthonous transmission by 40% and increasing individual variation in transmission further reduced the outbreak probability.
CONCLUSIONS: Population immunity, combined with heterogeneity in transmission, can explain why no large-scale outbreak was observed in Southeast Asia during the 2015-16 epidemic.
METHODS: Multinational, multicenter, prospective cohort study at 786 ICUs of 312 hospitals in 147 cities in 37 Latin American, Asian, African, Middle Eastern, and European countries.
RESULTS: Between 07/01/1998 and 02/12/2022, 300,827 patients, followed during 2,167,397 patient-days, acquired 21,371 HAIs. Following mortality risk factors were identified in multiple logistic regression: Central line-associated bloodstream infection (aOR:1.84; P