METHODOLOGY: A retrospective review was performed of LRTI patients aged less than 24 months who were admitted to the University Malaya Medical Centre between 1982 and 1997. Respiratory viruses in their nasopharyngeal secretion were identified by indirect immunofluorescence, viral culture, or both.
RESULTS: A total of 5691 children were included in the study. The mean age was 8.6 +/- 6.6 months and the M:F ratio was 1.6:1. The most common diagnosis was pneumonia (52%) followed by bronchiolitis (45%) and croup (2%). Positive viral isolation rate was 22.0%. Respiratory syncytial virus (RSV) was the commonest virus isolated (84%), followed by parainfluenza virus (8%), influenza virus (6%) and adenovirus (2%). Patients with positive virus isolation were younger (7.8 +/- 6.2 vs 8.7 +/- 6.7 months, P = 0.0001) and were more likely to have bronchiolitis.
CONCLUSION: Young Malaysian children admitted with LRTI had a 22% viral isolation rate and RSV was the commonest virus isolated.
OUTBREAK SITUATION: A stringent screening process at all airports in Malaysia was enforced after the first case outside China was reported in Thailand. Up to April 14, 2020, Malaysia had reported two waves of COVID-19 cases, with the first wave ending successfully within less than 2 months. In early March 2020, the second wave occurred, with worrying situations.
ACTIONS TAKEN: The Government of Malaysia enforced a Movement Control Order starting on March 18, 2020 to break the chain of COVID-19. The media actively spread the hashtag #stayhome. Non-governmental organizations, as well as prison inmates, started to produce personal protective equipment for frontliners. Various organizations hosted fundraising events to provide essentials mainly to hospitals. A provisional hospital was set up and collaborations with healthcare service providers were granted, while additional laboratories were assigned to enhance the capabilities of the Ministry of Health.
ECONOMIC DOWNTURN: An initial financial stimulus amounting to RM 20.0 billion was released in February 2020, before the highlighted PRIHATIN Package, amounting to RM 250 billion, was announced. The PRIHATIN Package has provided governmental support to society, covering people of various backgrounds from students and families to business owners.
METHODOLOGY: This study was conducted using daily confirmed cases of COVID-19 collected from the official Ministry of Health, Malaysia (MOH) and John Hopkins University websites. An Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) model was fitted to the training data of observed cases from 22 January to 31 March 2020, and subsequently validated using data on cases from 1 April to 17 April 2020. The ARIMA model satisfactorily forecasted the daily confirmed COVID-19 cases from 18 April 2020 to 1 May 2020 (the testing phase).
RESULTS: The ARIMA (0,1,0) model produced the best fit to the observed data with a Mean Absolute Percentage Error (MAPE) value of 16.01 and a Bayes Information Criteria (BIC) value of 4.170. The forecasted values showed a downward trend of COVID-19 cases until 1 May 2020. Observed cases during the forecast period were accurately predicted and were placed within the prediction intervals generated by the fitted model.
CONCLUSIONS: This study finds that ARIMA models with optimally selected covariates are useful tools for monitoring and predicting trends of COVID-19 cases in Malaysia.