METHODS: Eligible studies were included if they used any models to assess the impact of COVID-19 disruptions on any health services. Articles published from January 2020 to December 2022 were identified from PubMed, Embase and CINAHL, using detailed searches with key concepts including COVID-19, modelling and healthcare disruptions. Two reviewers independently extracted the data in four domains. A descriptive analysis of the included studies was performed under the format of a narrative report.
RESULTS: This scoping review has identified a total of 52 modelling studies that employed several models (n=116) to assess the potential impact of disruptions to essential health services. The majority of the models were simulation models (n=86; 74.1%). Studies covered a wide range of health conditions from infectious diseases to non-communicable diseases. COVID-19 has been reported to disrupt supply of health services, demand for health services and social change affecting factors that influence health. The most common outcomes reported in the studies were clinical outcomes such as mortality and morbidity. Twenty-five studies modelled various mitigation strategies; maintaining critical services by ensuring resources and access to services are found to be a priority for reducing the overall impact.
CONCLUSION: A number of models were used to assess the potential impact of disruptions to essential health services on various outcomes. There is a need for collaboration among stakeholders to enhance the usefulness of any modelling. Future studies should consider disparity issues for more comprehensive findings that could ultimately facilitate policy decision-making to maximise benefits to all.
METHODS: We conducted a systematic review by searching PubMed, EMBASE, and Scopus to identify articles reporting epidemiological models in snakebite envenoming from database inception to 31st December 2023. A narrative synthesis was performed to summarise types of models, methodologies, input parameters, model outputs, and associating factors.
RESULTS: Thirty-nine modelling studies were included from 2426 retrieved articles, comprising statistical models (76.9%) and mathematical models (23.1%). Most of the studies were conducted in South Asia, (35.9%) and Latin America (35.9%), and only a few (5.1%) were a global burden estimation. The eligible studies constructed 42 epidemiological models, of which 33 were statistical models that included regression, (60.6%) geostatistical (21.2%), and time series, (18.2%) while 9 mathematical models comprised compartmental, (44.4%) agent-based, (22.2%) transmission dynamics, (11.1%) network, (11.1%) and a simple mathematical model (11.1%). The outputs of the models varied across the study objectives. Statistical models analysed the relationship between incidence, (83.3%) mortality, (33.3%) morbidity (16.7%) and prevalence (10.0%) and their associating factors (environmental, [80%] socio-demographic [33.3%] and therapeutic [10.0%]). Mathematical models estimated incidence, (100%) mortality (33.3%), and morbidity (22.2%). Five mathematical modelling studies considered associating factors, including environmental (60%) and socio-demographic factors (40%).
CONCLUSION: Mathematical and statistical models are crucial for estimating the burden of snakebite envenoming, offering insights into risk prediction and resource allocation. Current challenges include low-quality data and methodological heterogeneity. Modelling studies are needed, and their continued improvement is vital for meeting WHO goals. Future research should emphasise standardised methodologies, high-quality community data, and stakeholder engagement to create accurate, applicable models for prevention and resource optimization in high-burden regions, including Africa and Asia.