All species must partition resources among the processes that underly growth, survival, and reproduction. The resulting demographic trade-offs constrain the range of viable life-history strategies and are hypothesized to promote local coexistence. Tropical forests pose ideal systems to study demographic trade-offs as they have a high diversity of coexisting tree species whose life-history strategies tend to align along two orthogonal axes of variation: a growth-survival trade-off that separates species with fast growth from species with high survival and a stature-recruitment trade-off that separates species that achieve large stature from species with high recruitment. As these trade-offs have typically been explored for trees ≥1 cm dbh, it is unclear how species' growth and survival during earliest seedling stages are related to the trade-offs for trees ≥1 cm dbh. Here, we used principal components and correlation analyses to (1) determine the main demographic trade-offs among seed-to-seedling transition rates and growth and survival rates from the seedling to overstory size classes of 1188 tree species from large-scale forest dynamics plots in Panama, Puerto Rico, Ecuador, Taiwan, and Malaysia and (2) quantify the predictive power of maximum dbh, wood density, seed mass, and specific leaf area for species' position along these demographic trade-off gradients. In four out of five forests, the growth-survival trade-off was the most important demographic trade-off and encompassed growth and survival of both seedlings and trees ≥1 cm dbh. The second most important trade-off separated species with relatively fast growth and high survival at the seedling stage from species with relatively fast growth and high survival ≥1 cm dbh. The relationship between seed-to-seedling transition rates and these two trade-off aces differed between sites. All four traits were significant predictors for species' position along the two trade-off gradients, albeit with varying importance. We concluded that, after accounting for the species' position along the growth-survival trade-off, tree species tend to trade off growth and survival at the seedling with later life stages. This ontogenetic trade-off offers a mechanistic explanation for the stature-recruitment trade-off that constitutes an additional ontogenetic dimension of life-history variation in species-rich ecosystems.
Science is integral to society because it can inform individual, government, corporate, and civil society decision-making on issues such as public health, new technologies or climate change. Yet, public distrust and populist sentiment challenge the relationship between science and society. To help researchers analyse the science-society nexus across different geographical and cultural contexts, we undertook a cross-sectional population survey resulting in a dataset of 71,922 participants in 68 countries. The data were collected between November 2022 and August 2023 as part of the global Many Labs study "Trust in Science and Science-Related Populism" (TISP). The questionnaire contained comprehensive measures for individuals' trust in scientists, science-related populist attitudes, perceptions of the role of science in society, science media use and communication behaviour, attitudes to climate change and support for environmental policies, personality traits, political and religious views and demographic characteristics. Here, we describe the dataset, survey materials and psychometric properties of key variables. We encourage researchers to use this unique dataset for global comparative analyses on public perceptions of science and its role in society and policy-making.
The Asia Pacific region is regarded as the most disaster-prone area of the world. Since 2000, 1.2 billion people have been exposed to hydrometeorological hazards alone through 1215 disaster events. The impacts of climate change on meteorological phenomena and environmental consequences are well documented. However, the impacts on health are more elusive. Nevertheless, climate change is believed to alter weather patterns on the regional scale, giving rise to extreme weather events. The impacts from extreme weather events are definitely more acute and traumatic in nature, leading to deaths and injuries, as well as debilitating and fatal communicable diseases. Extreme weather events include heat waves, cold waves, floods, droughts, hurricanes, tropical cyclones, heavy rain, and snowfalls. Globally, within the 20-year period from 1993 to 2012, more than 530 000 people died as a direct result of almost 15 000 extreme weather events, with losses of more than US$2.5 trillion in purchasing power parity.
In recent time climate change and its impact on human health and awareness constitute a set of complex and serious consequences to be tackled by an individual country. Climate change is not merely an environmental issue, but also it is a threat that goes beyond national borders. The purpose of this study is to identify the awareness and the impact of climate change, perceived by the young citizens in Malaysia by focusing on gender differences. Based on a survey of 200 respondents from different public and private University's students in Malaysia, this research used descriptive statistics and T-test to look into the research objective. The results revealed media can play an important role in the awareness of climate change. Meanwhile the male respondents have shown considerable attention on the physical impact of climate change like heat related stress. On the other hand female respondents have shown considerable attention to the psychological impact by the climate change. From a pragmatic perspective, the findings from this research will assists the policy makers to understand more about the perceived awareness on the climate change issues of the young citizens which ultimately assist them to inaugurate new initiatives to confront the challenges of climate changes. This research is among the pioneer study on the issue of the perceived awareness in regards to climate change in Malaysia by focusing on gender differences.
The United Nations recently agreed to major expansions of global protected areas (PAs) to slow biodiversity declines1. However, although reserves often reduce habitat loss, their efficacy at preserving animal diversity and their influence on biodiversity in surrounding unprotected areas remain unclear2-5. Unregulated hunting can empty PAs of large animals6, illegal tree felling can degrade habitat quality7, and parks can simply displace disturbances such as logging and hunting to unprotected areas of the landscape8 (a phenomenon called leakage). Alternatively, well-functioning PAs could enhance animal diversity within reserves as well as in nearby unprotected sites9 (an effect called spillover). Here we test whether PAs across mega-diverse Southeast Asia contribute to vertebrate conservation inside and outside their boundaries. Reserves increased all facets of bird diversity. Large reserves were also associated with substantially enhanced mammal diversity in the adjacent unprotected landscape. Rather than PAs generating leakage that deteriorated ecological conditions elsewhere, our results are consistent with PAs inducing spillover that benefits biodiversity in surrounding areas. These findings support the United Nations goal of achieving 30% PA coverage by 2030 by demonstrating that PAs are associated with higher vertebrate diversity both inside their boundaries and in the broader landscape.
The role of aerial dispersal in shaping patterns of biodiversity remains poorly understood, mainly due to a lack of coordinated efforts in gathering data at appropriate temporal and spatial scales. It has been long known that the rate of dispersal to an ecosystem can significantly influence ecosystem dynamics, and that aerial transport has been identified as an important source of biological input to remote locations. With the considerable effort devoted in recent decades to understanding atmospheric circulation in the south-polar region, a unique opportunity has emerged to investigate the atmospheric ecology of Antarctica, from regional to continental scales. This concept note identifies key questions in Antarctic microbial biogeography and the need for standardized sampling and analysis protocols to address such questions. A consortium of polar aerobiologists is established to bring together researchers with a common interest in the airborne dispersion of microbes and other propagules in the Antarctic, with opportunities for comparative studies in the Arctic.
Changes in species composition in two 4-ha plots of lowland dipterocarp rainforest at Danum, Sabah, were measured over ten years (1986-1996) for trees > or = 10 cm girth at breast height (gbh). Each included a lower-slope to ridge gradient. The period lay between two drought events of moderate intensity but the forest showed no large lasting responses, suggesting that its species were well adapted to this regime. Mortality and recruitment rates were not unusual in global or regional comparisons. The forest continued to aggrade from its relatively (for Sabah) low basal area in 1986 and, together with the very open upper canopy structure and an abundance of lianas, this suggests a forest in a late stage of recovery from a major disturbance, yet one continually affected by smaller recent setbacks. Mortality and recruitment rates were not related to population size in 1986, but across subplots recruitment was positively correlated with the density and basal area of small trees (10-< 50cm gbh) forming the dense understorey. Neither rate was related to topography. While species with larger mean gbh had greater relative growth rates (rgr) than smaller ones, subplot mean recruitment rates were correlated with rgr among small trees. Separating understorey species (typically the Euphorbiaceae) from the overstorey (Dipterocarpaceae) showed marked differences in change in mortality with increasing gbh: in the former it increased, in the latter it decreased. Forest processes are centred on this understorey quasi-stratum. The two replicate plots showed a high correspondence in the mortality, recruitment, population changes and growth rates of small trees for the 49 most abundant species in common to both. Overstorey species had higher rgrs than understorey ones, but both showed considerable ranges in mortality and recruitment rates. The supposed trade-off in traits, viz slower rgr, shade tolerance and lower population turnover in the understorey group versus faster potential growth rate, high light responsiveness and high turnover in the overstorey group, was only partly met, as some understorey species were also very dynamic. The forest at Danum, under such a disturbance-recovery regime, can be viewed as having a dynamic equilibrium in functional and structural terms. A second trade-off in shade-tolerance versus drought-tolerance is suggested for among the understorey species. A two-storey (or vertical component) model is proposed where the understorcy-overstorey species' ratio of small stems (currently 2:1) is maintained by a major feedback process. The understorey appears to be an important part of this forest, giving resilience against drought and protecting the overstorey saplings in the long term. This view could be valuable for understanding forest responses to climate change where drought frequency in Borneo is predicted to intensify in the coming decades.
Community resistance to, and resilience from, perturbation will determine the trajectory of recovery from disturbance. Although selective timber extraction is considered a severe disturbance, fish communities from headwater streams around Danum Valley Field Centre, Sabah, Malaysia, showed few long-term changes in species composition or abundance. However, some species showed short-term (< 18 months) absence or decrease in abundance. These observations suggested that both resistance and resilience were important in maintaining long-term fish community structure. Resistance to perturbation was tested by monitoring fish communities before and after the creation of log-debris dams, while resilience was investigated by following the time-course of recolonization following complete removal of all fish. High community resistance was generally shown although the response was site-specific, dependent on the composition of the starting community, the size of the stream and physical habitat changes. High resilience was demonstrated in all recolonization experiments with strong correlations between pre- and post-defaunation communities, although there was a significant difference between pool and riffle habitats in the time-course of recovery. These differences can be explained by the movement characteristics of the species found in the different habitats. Resilience appeared to be a more predictable characteristic of the community than resistance and the implications of this for ensuring the long-term persistence of fish in the area are discussed.
Climatic records for Danum for 1985-1998, elsewhere in Sabah since 1879, and long monthly rainfall series from other rainforest locations are used to place the climate, and particularly the dry period climatology, of Danum into a world rainforest context. The magnitude frequency and seasonality of dry periods are shown to vary greatly within the world's rainforest zone. The climate of Danum, which is aseasonal but subject, as in 1997-1998, to occasional drought, is intermediate between less drought-prone north-western Borneo and the more drought-prone east coast. Changes through time in drought magnitude frequency in Sabah and rainforest locations elsewhere in South-East Asia and in the Neotropics are compared. The 1997-1998 ENSO-related drought event in Sabah is placed into a historical context. The effects of drought on tree growth and mortality in the tropics are assessed and a model relating intensity and frequency of drought disturbance to forest structure and composition is discussed.
Aedes albopictus (Skuse) is an Asian mosquito that recently has colonized North America via used tire transport. Temperate Ae. albopictus populations overwinter as diapausing eggs, but tropical populations cannot diapause. Eggs of tropical (SABAH) and temperate (INDY) Ae. albopictus were obtained in diapause-inducing conditions and placed inside a scrap tire to monitor overwintering survival in northern Indiana during the winters of 1989-1990 and 1990-1991. Diapause eggs of Ae. triseriatus (Say), a native North American mosquito, were included for comparison. Tropical Ae. albopictus from Malaysia did not survive either winter. Temperate Ae. albopictus from Indianapolis, IN, did not survive the winter of 1989-1990, but 78% survived the winter of 1990-1991. In contrast, 92 and 96% of Ae. triseriatus survived the winters of 1989-1990 and 1990-1991, respectively. Neither mean temperature nor absolute minimum temperature (a winter's lowest temperature) accurately predicted Ae. albopictus overwintering survivorship in the field. The possible effect of snow and other insulating materials on the overwintering survivorship of Ae. albopictus eggs is discussed.
Many lowland rainforests in Southeast Asia are severely altered by selective logging and there is a need for rapid assessment methods to identify characteristic communities of old growth forests and to monitor restoration success in regenerating forests. We have studied the effect of logging on the diversity and composition of lichen communities on trunks of trees in lowland rainforests of northeast Borneo dominated by Dipterocarpaceae. Using data from field observations and vouchers collected from plots in disturbed and undisturbed forests, we compared a taxonomy-based and a taxon-free method. Vouchers were identified to genus or genus group and assigned to functional groups based on sets of functional traits. Both datasets allowed the detection of significant differences in lichen communities between disturbed and undisturbed forest plots. Bark type diversity and the proportion of large trees, particularly those belonging to the family Dipterocarpaceae, were the main drivers of lichen community structure. Our results confirm the usefulness of a functional groups approach for the rapid assessment of tropical lowland rainforests in Southeast Asia. A high proportion of Dipterocarpaceae trees is revealed as an essential element for the restoration of near natural lichen communities in lowland rainforests of Southeast Asia.
Existing mitigation strategies to reduce greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions are inadequate to reach the target emission reductions set in the Paris Agreement. Hence, the deployment of negative emission technologies (NETs) is imperative. Given that there are multiple available NETs that need to be evaluated based on multiple criteria, there is a need for a systematic method for ranking and prioritizing them. Furthermore, the uncertainty in estimating the techno-economic performance levels of NETs is a major challenge. In this work, an integrated model of fuzzy analytical hierarchy process (AHP) and interval-extended Technique for Order Preference by Similarity to Ideal Solution (TOPSIS) is proposed to address the multiple criteria, together with data uncertainties. The potential of NETs is assessed through the application of this hybrid decision model. Sensitivity analysis is also conducted to evaluate the robustness of the ranking generated. The result shows Bioenergy with Carbon Capture and Storage (BECCS) as the most optimal alternative for achieving negative emission goals since it performed robustly in the different criteria considered. Meanwhile, energy requirement emerged as the most preferred or critical criterion in the deployment of NETs based on the decision-maker. This paper renders a new research perspective for evaluating the viability of NETs and extends the domains of the fuzzy AHP and interval-extended TOPSIS hybrid model.
Borneo has gone through dramatic changes in geology and topography from the early Eocene until the early Pliocene and experienced climatic cycling during the Pleistocene. However, how these changes have shaped the present-day patterns of high diversity and complex distribution are still poorly understood. In this study, we use integrative approaches by estimating phylogenetic relationships, divergence time, and current and past niche suitability for the Bornean endemic land snail genus Everettia to provide additional insight into the evolutionary history of this genus in northern Borneo in the light of the geological vicariance events and climatic fluctuations in the Pleistocene. Our results show that northern Borneo Everettia species belong to two deeply divergent lineages: one contains the species that inhabit high elevation at the central mountain range, while the other contains lowland species. Species diversification in these lineages has taken place before the Pliocene. Climate changes during the Pleistocene did not play a significant role in species diversification but could have shaped contemporary species distribution patterns. Our results also show that the species-rich highland habitats have acted as interglacial refugia for highland species. This study of a relatively sedentary invertebrate supports and enhances the growing understanding of the evolutionary history of Borneo. Species diversification in Everettia is caused by geological vicariance events between the early Miocene and the Pliocene, and the distribution patterns were subsequently determined by climatic fluctuations in the Pleistocene.
The prediction is that food supply must double by 2050 to cope with the impact of climate change and population pressure on global food systems. The diversification of staple crops and the systems in which they grow is essential to make future agriculture sustainable, resilient, and suitable for local environments and soils.
A noticeable increase in drought frequency and severity has been observed across the globe due to climate change, which attracted scientists in development of drought prediction models for mitigation of impacts. Droughts are usually monitored using drought indices (DIs), most of which are probabilistic and therefore, highly stochastic and non-linear. The current research investigated the capability of different versions of relatively well-explored machine learning (ML) models including random forest (RF), minimum probability machine regression (MPMR), M5 Tree (M5tree), extreme learning machine (ELM) and online sequential-ELM (OSELM) in predicting the most widely used DI known as standardized precipitation index (SPI) at multiple month horizons (i.e., 1, 3, 6 and 12). Models were developed using monthly rainfall data for the period of 1949-2013 at four meteorological stations namely, Barisal, Bogra, Faridpur and Mymensingh, each representing a geographical region of Bangladesh which frequently experiences droughts. The model inputs were decided based on correlation statistics and the prediction capability was evaluated using several statistical metrics including mean square error (MSE), root mean square error (RMSE), mean absolute error (MAE), correlation coefficient (R), Willmott's Index of agreement (WI), Nash Sutcliffe efficiency (NSE), and Legates and McCabe Index (LM). The results revealed that the proposed models are reliable and robust in predicting droughts in the region. Comparison of the models revealed ELM as the best model in forecasting droughts with minimal RMSE in the range of 0.07-0.85, 0.08-0.76, 0.062-0.80 and 0.042-0.605 for Barisal, Bogra, Faridpur and Mymensingh, respectively for all the SPI scales except one-month SPI for which the RF showed the best performance with minimal RMSE of 0.57, 0.45, 0.59 and 0.42, respectively.
The South Asian region is predicted to be among the most severely affected by the health impacts of climate change and warrants regional health policy leadership to tackle the same. Model World Health Organization (WHO) simulations offer the academic opportunity to build this leadership. This study describes the conceptualization and conduct of the 'Manipal Model World Health Organization' 2018 debate simulation, where a multi-professional group of students at an Indian university deliberated approaches to address the regional health impacts of climate change in South Asia. We contextualized the Model WHO debate model for a multi-professional classroom. Multi-sectoral stakeholders were engaged to draw participants from health and non-health disciplines. Participants were trained in health research literacy, policy politics, bloc politics, writing and public speaking for Model WHO. Mock sessions provided training in navigating parliamentary procedures. The debate event consisted of 22 participants and a four-member panel from diverse academic disciplines who independently assessed the deliberations. All delegations demonstrated competent written and verbal contributions. Content analysis of resolutions reaffirmed international agreements and addressed the Climate Change Health Risk Framework, and objectives of the WHO Secretariat Action Plan. Besides presenting a stratified typology of academic health policy debate simulations in global, regional, and subnational contexts, we also propose a 'theory of change', illustrating how academic policy discourse platforms can nurture critical thinking, research/policy literacy and leadership skills. Such initiatives help build the health policy leadership required for addressing global health challenges such as climate change.
The threat posed by invasive non-native species worldwide requires a global approach to identify which introduced species are likely to pose an elevated risk of impact to native species and ecosystems. To inform policy, stakeholders and management decisions on global threats to aquatic ecosystems, 195 assessors representing 120 risk assessment areas across all six inhabited continents screened 819 non-native species from 15 groups of aquatic organisms (freshwater, brackish, marine plants and animals) using the Aquatic Species Invasiveness Screening Kit. This multi-lingual decision-support tool for the risk screening of aquatic organisms provides assessors with risk scores for a species under current and future climate change conditions that, following a statistically based calibration, permits the accurate classification of species into high-, medium- and low-risk categories under current and predicted climate conditions. The 1730 screenings undertaken encompassed wide geographical areas (regions, political entities, parts thereof, water bodies, river basins, lake drainage basins, and marine regions), which permitted thresholds to be identified for almost all aquatic organismal groups screened as well as for tropical, temperate and continental climate classes, and for tropical and temperate marine ecoregions. In total, 33 species were identified as posing a 'very high risk' of being or becoming invasive, and the scores of several of these species under current climate increased under future climate conditions, primarily due to their wide thermal tolerances. The risk thresholds determined for taxonomic groups and climate zones provide a basis against which area-specific or climate-based calibrated thresholds may be interpreted. In turn, the risk rankings help decision-makers identify which species require an immediate 'rapid' management action (e.g. eradication, control) to avoid or mitigate adverse impacts, which require a full risk assessment, and which are to be restricted or banned with regard to importation and/or sale as ornamental or aquarium/fishery enhancement.
Dengue is hyper-endemic in Singapore and Malaysia, and daily movement rates between the two countries are consistently high, allowing inference on the role of local transmission and imported dengue cases. This paper describes a custom built sparse space-time autoregressive (SSTAR) model to infer and forecast contemporaneous and future dengue transmission patterns in Singapore and 16 administrative regions within Malaysia, taking into account connectivity and geographical adjacency between regions as well as climatic factors. A modification to forecast impulse responses is developed for the case of the SSTAR and is used to simulate changes in dengue transmission in neighbouring regions following a disturbance. The results indicate that there are long-term responses of the neighbouring regions to shocks in a region. By computation of variable inclusion probabilities, we found that each region's own past counts were important to describe contemporaneous case counts. In 15 out of 16 regions, other regions case counts were important to describe contemporaneous case counts even after controlling for past local dengue transmissions and exogenous factors. Leave-one-region-out analysis using SSTAR showed that dengue transmission counts could be reconstructed for 13 of 16 regions' counts using external dengue transmissions compared to a climate only approach. Lastly, one to four week ahead forecasts from the SSTAR were more accurate than baseline univariate autoregressions.
To investigate the distribution of Anacardiaceae in Teluk Bahang Permanent Forest Reserve (TBPFR) in Pulau Pinang, all trees with a diameter at breast high (DBH) ≥ 5 cm were enumerated in a study site constituting 0.4 ha of the reserve. Seventy five individuals of Anacardiaceae (14% of all trees) are recorded. These individuals represent 4 genera and 5 species, namely, Mangifera pentandra, Mangifera macrocarpa, Gluta elegans, Campnosperma auriculatum and Swintonia floribunda. The mean density of Anacardiaceae within the study plots is 7.50±8.14 (mean±S.D.) per ha whereas the basal area (BA) calculated is 0.97 m(2)/0.40 ha. The importance value (IVi) for Anacardiaceae is 81%. The estimated total aboveground biomass (TAGB) for Anacardiaceae is 24.24 ton/0.40 ha. A total of 333 Anacardiaceae saplings with a DBH < 5 cm are recorded. These saplings have been identified as juveniles of the genera Gluta (9.99%), Swintonia (84.90%) and Mangifera (5.11%).
While droughts and floods have intensified in recent years, only a handful of studies have assessed their impacts on croplands and production in Southeast Asia. Here, we used the Google Earth Engine to assess the droughts and floods and their impacts on croplands and crop production over 40 years from 1980 to 2019. Using the Palmer Drought Severity Index (PDSI) as the basis for determining the drought and flood levels, and crop damage levels, crop production loss in both the Monsoon Climate Region (MCR) and the Equatorial Climate Region (ECR) of Southeast Asia was assessed over 47,192 grid points with 10 × 10-kilometer resolution. We found that rainfed crops were severely affected by droughts in the MCR and floods in the ECR. About 9.42 million ha and 3.72 million ha of cropland was damaged by droughts and floods, respectively. We estimated a total loss of 20.64 million tons of crop production between 2015 and 2019. Rainfed crops in Thailand, Cambodia, and Myanmar were strongly affected by droughts, whereas Indonesia, the Philippines, and Malaysia were more affected by floods over the same period. Accordingly, four levels of policy interventions were prioritized by considering the geolocated crop damage levels.