Displaying publications 41 - 60 of 275 in total

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  1. Norzaida Abas, Zalina Mohd Daud, Norazizi Mohamed, Syafrina Abdul Halim
    MyJurnal
    Climate change is undeniably the greatest issue facing our society. Around the globe,
    increasingly unpredictable weather patterns and extreme weather events are
    observed, causing considerable risks to human lives, properties and health safety and
    also on the natural ecosystem. The magnitude and impacts of climate change are
    growing, and particularly in Malaysia, studies show increases in temperature and
    changes in rainfall regimes. Such changes have profound implications, especially for
    coastal communities. Since knowledge and perceptions of the public on climate change
    could affect the success of implemented adaptation and mitigation options, it is
    essential to conduct assessments to gather such information. A public awareness and
    perception study was conducted at Sabak and Tanjung Karang, two coastal
    communities which were affected by changes in sea level and flooding incidences. The
    knowledge level and perceptions of climate change among respondents were assessed
    covering areas such as level of awareness of the respondents, their perceptions of
    climate change issues, their sentiments on climate change and adaptation measures,
    their socio-economic activity and the effect on their lives. Results show that majority
    of respondents were aware of climate change issues and challenges. High levels of
    concern about climate change were expressed with the majority were worried and
    uncertain about the climate change impact and hoped for government measures.
    Almost half of respondents cited significant damage to their properties and reduction
    in income generation. Overall, the results of the present study gave insights of the
    affected parties on perceptions and awareness pertaining to climate change, which
    could potentially be used to promote greater awareness of climate change matters and
    to gauge the public response to related policies and strategies.
    Matched MeSH terms: Climate Change
  2. Banu M, Krishnamurthy KS, Srinivasan V, Kandiannan K, Surendran U
    J Sci Food Agric, 2024 May;104(7):4176-4188.
    PMID: 38385763 DOI: 10.1002/jsfa.13299
    BACKGROUND: Turmeric cultivation primarily thrives in India, followed by Bangladesh, Cambodia, Thailand, China, Malaysia, Indonesia and the Philippines. India leads globally in both area and production of turmeric. Despite this, there is a recognized gap in research regarding the impact of climate change on site suitability of turmeric. The primary objective of the present study was to evaluate both the present and future suitability of turmeric cultivation within the humid tropical region of Kerala, India, by employing advanced geospatial techniques. The research utilized meteorological data from the Indian Meteorological Department for the period of 1986-2020 as historical data and projected future data from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6). Four climatic scenarios of shared socioeconomic pathway (SSP) from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change AR6 model of MIROC6 for the year 2050 (SSP 1-2.6, SSP 2-4.5, SSP 3-7.0 and SSP 5-8.5) were used.

    RESULTS: The results showed that suitable area for turmeric cultivation is declining in future scenario and this decline can be primarily attributed to fluctuations in temperature and an anticipated increase in rainfall in the year 2050. Notable changes in the spatial distribution of suitable areas over time were observed through the application of geographic information system (GIS) techniques. Importantly, as per the suitability criteria provided by ICAR-National Bureau of Soil Survey and Land Use Planning (ICAR-NBSS & LUP), all the districts in Kerala exhibited moderately suitable conditions for turmeric cultivation. With the GIS tools, the study identified highly suitable, moderately suitable, marginally suitable and not suitable areas of turmeric cultivation in Kerala. Presently 28% of area falls under highly suitable, 41% of area falls under moderately suitable and 11% falls under not suitable for turmeric cultivation. However, considering the projected scenarios for 2050 under the SSP framework, there will be a significant decrease in highly suitable area by 19% under SSP 5-8.5. This reduction in area will have an impact on the productivity of the crop as a result of changes in temperature and rainfall patterns.

    CONCLUSION: The outcome of the present research suggests that the state of Kerala needs to implement suitable climate change adaptation and management strategies for sustaining the turmeric cultivation. Additionally, the present study includes a discussion on potential management strategies to address the challenges posed by changing climatic conditions for optimizing turmeric production in the region. © 2024 Society of Chemical Industry.

    Matched MeSH terms: Climate Change
  3. Brooks CM, Ainley DG, Jacquet J, Chown SL, Pertierra LR, Francis E, et al.
    Science, 2022 Nov 04;378(6619):477-479.
    PMID: 36264826 DOI: 10.1126/science.add9480
    Climate change and fishing present dual threats.
    Matched MeSH terms: Climate Change*
  4. Dadhich JP, Smith JP, Iellamo A, Suleiman A
    J Hum Lact, 2021 May;37(2):314-322.
    PMID: 33586512 DOI: 10.1177/0890334421994769
    BACKGROUND: There is growing recognition that current food systems and policies are environmentally unsustainable. There is an identified need to integrate sustainability objectives into national food policy and dietary recommendations.

    RESEARCH AIMS: To (1) describe exploratory estimates of greenhouse gas emission factors for all infant and young child milk formula products and (2) estimate national greenhouse gas emission association with commercial milk formulas sold in selected countries in the Asia Pacific region.

    METHOD: We used a secondary data analysis descriptive design incorporating a Life Cycle Assessment (LCA) concepts and methodology to estimate kg CO2 eq. emissions per kg of milk formula, using greenhouse gas emission factors for milk powder, vegetable oils, and sugars identified from a literature review. Proportions of ingredients were calculated using FAO Codex Alimentarius guidance on milk formula products. Estimates were calculated for production and processing of individual ingredients from cradle to factory gate. Annual retail sales data for 2012-2017 was sourced from Euromonitor International for six purposively selected countries; Australia, South Korea, China, Malaysia, India, Philippines.

    RESULTS: Annual emissions for milk formula products ranged from 3.95-4.04 kg CO2 eq. Milk formula sold in the six countries in 2012 contributed 2,893,030 tons CO2 eq. to global greenhouse gas emissions. Aggregate emissions were highest for products (e.g., toddler formula), which dominated sales growth. Projected 2017 emissions for milk formula retailed in China alone were 4,219,052 tons CO2 eq.

    CONCLUSIONS: Policies, programs and investments to shift infant and young child diets towards less manufactured milk formula and more breastfeeding are "Triple Duty Actions" that help improve dietary quality and population health and improve the sustainability of the global food system.

    Matched MeSH terms: Climate Change
  5. Lokmic-Tomkins Z, Bhandari D, Watterson J, Pollock WE, Cochrane L, Robinson E, et al.
    BMJ Open, 2023 Jul 27;13(7):e073960.
    PMID: 37500279 DOI: 10.1136/bmjopen-2023-073960
    INTRODUCTION: Growing evidence suggests that climate change-related extreme weather events adversely impact maternal and child health (MCH) outcomes, which requires effective, sustainable and culturally appropriate interventions at individual, community and policy levels to minimise these impacts. This scoping review proposes to map the evidence available on the type, characteristics and outcomes of multilevel interventions implemented as adaptational strategies to protect MCH from the possible adverse effects of climate change.

    METHODS: The following databases will be searched: Embase, MEDLINE, Emcare, EPPI-Centre database of health promotion research (BiblioMap) EPPI-Centre Database for promoting Health Effectiveness Reviews (DoPHER), Global Health, CINAHL, Joanna Briggs Institute EBP Database, Maternity and Infant Care Database, Education Resource Information Center, PsycINFO, Scopus, Web of Science and Global Index Medicus, which indexes Latin America and the Caribbean, Index Medicus for the South-East Asia Region, African Index Medicus, Western Pacific Region Index Medicus. Cochrane Central Register of Controlled Trials, WHO International Clinical Trials Registry Platform, ClinicalTrials.gov, conference proceedings, thesis and dissertations, policy and guidelines and their reference lists will also be searched. Two reviewers will independently screen titles and abstracts and full text based on predefined eligibility criteria. The Preferred Reporting Items for Systematic Reviews and Meta-analyses Extension for Scoping Reviews using the Population, Concept and Context framework and the Template for Intervention Description and Replication checklist will be used to structure and report the findings.

    ETHICS AND DISSEMINATION: Ethics permission to conduct the scoping review is not required as the information collected is publicly available through databases. Findings will be disseminated through a peer-reviewed publication and conference presentations.

    Matched MeSH terms: Climate Change*
  6. Barteit S, Colmar D, Nellis S, Thu M, Watterson J, Gouwanda D, et al.
    Front Public Health, 2023;11:1153149.
    PMID: 38125843 DOI: 10.3389/fpubh.2023.1153149
    BACKGROUND: Malaysia is projected to experience an increase in heat, rainfall, rainfall variability, dry spells, thunderstorms, and high winds due to climate change. This may lead to a rise in heat-related mortality, reduced nutritional security, and potential migration due to uninhabitable land. Currently, there is limited data regarding the health implications of climate change on the Malaysian populace, which hinders informed decision-making and interventions.

    OBJECTIVE: This study aims to assess the feasibility and reliability of using sensor-based devices to enhance climate change and health research within the SEACO health and demographic surveillance site (HDSS) in Malaysia. We will particularly focus on the effects of climate-sensitive diseases, emphasizing lung conditions like chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) and asthma.

    METHODS: In our mixed-methods approach, 120 participants (>18 years) from the SEACO HDSS in Segamat, Malaysia, will be engaged over three cycles, each lasting 3 weeks. Participants will use wearables to monitor heart rate, activity, and sleep. Indoor sensors will measure temperature in indoor living spaces, while 3D-printed weather stations will track indoor temperature and humidity. In each cycle, a minimum of 10 participants at high risk for COPD or asthma will be identified. Through interviews and questionnaires, we will evaluate the devices' reliability, the prevalence of climate-sensitive lung diseases, and their correlation with environmental factors, like heat and humidity.

    RESULTS: We anticipate that the sensor-based measurements will offer a comprehensive understanding of the interplay between climate-sensitive diseases and weather variables. The data is expected to reveal correlations between health impacts and weather exposures like heat. Participant feedback will offer perspectives on the usability and feasibility of these digital tools.

    CONCLUSION: Our study within the SEACO HDSS in Malaysia will evaluate the potential of sensor-based digital technologies in monitoring the interplay between climate change and health, particularly for climate-sensitive diseases like COPD and asthma. The data generated will likely provide details on health profiles in relation to weather exposures. Feedback will indicate the acceptability of these tools for broader health surveillance. As climate change continues to impact global health, evaluating the potential of such digital technologies is crucial to understand its potential to inform policy and intervention strategies in vulnerable regions.

    Matched MeSH terms: Climate Change
  7. Guest JR, Tun K, Low J, Vergés A, Marzinelli EM, Campbell AH, et al.
    Sci Rep, 2016 11 08;6:36260.
    PMID: 27824083 DOI: 10.1038/srep36260
    Coral cover on reefs is declining globally due to coastal development, overfishing and climate change. Reefs isolated from direct human influence can recover from natural acute disturbances, but little is known about long term recovery of reefs experiencing chronic human disturbances. Here we investigate responses to acute bleaching disturbances on turbid reefs off Singapore, at two depths over a period of 27 years. Coral cover declined and there were marked changes in coral and benthic community structure during the first decade of monitoring at both depths. At shallower reef crest sites (3-4 m), benthic community structure recovered towards pre-disturbance states within a decade. In contrast, there was a net decline in coral cover and continuing shifts in community structure at deeper reef slope sites (6-7 m). There was no evidence of phase shifts to macroalgal dominance but coral habitats at deeper sites were replaced by unstable substrata such as fine sediments and rubble. The persistence of coral dominance at chronically disturbed shallow sites is likely due to an abundance of coral taxa which are tolerant to environmental stress. In addition, high turbidity may interact antagonistically with other disturbances to reduce the impact of thermal stress and limit macroalgal growth rates.
    Matched MeSH terms: Climate Change
  8. Soper FM, MacKenzie RA, Sharma S, Cole TG, Litton CM, Sparks JP
    Glob Chang Biol, 2019 Aug 29.
    PMID: 31465581 DOI: 10.1111/gcb.14813
    Mangrove forests play an important role in climate change adaptation and mitigation by maintaining coastline elevations relative to sea level rise, protecting coastal infrastructure from storm damage and storing substantial quantities of carbon (C) in live and detrital pools. Determining the efficacy of mangroves in achieving climate goals can be complicated by difficulty in quantifying C inputs (i.e., differentiating newer inputs from younger trees from older residual C pools), and mitigation assessments rarely consider potential offsets to CO2 storage by methane (CH4 ) production in mangrove sediments. The establishment of non-native Rhizophora mangle along Hawaiian coastlines over the last century offers an opportunity to examine the role mangroves play in climate mitigation and adaptation both globally and locally as novel ecosystems. We quantified total ecosystem C storage, sedimentation, accretion, sediment organic C burial and CH4 emissions from ~70 year old R. mangle stands and adjacent uninvaded mudflats. Ecosystem C stocks of mangrove stands exceeded mudflats by 434 ± 33 Mg C ha-1 , and mangrove establishment increased average coastal accretion by 460%. Sediment organic C burial increased 10-fold (to 4.5 Mg C ha-1 yr-1 ), double the global mean for old growth mangrove forests, suggesting that C accumulation from younger trees may occur faster than previously thought, with implications for mangrove restoration. Simulations indicate that increased CH4 emissions from sediments offset ecosystem CO2 storage by only 2-4%, equivalent to 30-60 Mg CO2 -eq ha-1 over mangrove lifetime (100-year sustained global warming potential). Results highlight the importance of mangroves as novel systems that can rapidly accumulate C, have a net positive atmospheric greenhouse gas removal effect, and support shoreline accretion rates that outpace current sea level rise. Sequestration potential of novel mangrove forests should be taken into account when considering their removal or management, especially in the context of climate mitigation goals.
    Matched MeSH terms: Climate Change
  9. Supari, Tangang F, Juneng L, Cruz F, Chung JX, Ngai ST, et al.
    Environ Res, 2020 05;184:109350.
    PMID: 32179268 DOI: 10.1016/j.envres.2020.109350
    This study examines the projected precipitation extremes for the end of 21st century (2081-2100) over Southeast Asia (SEA) using the output of the Southeast Asia Regional Climate Downscaling/Coordinated Regional Climate Downscaling Experiment - Southeast Asia (SEACLID/CORDEX-SEA). Eight ensemble members, representing a subset of archived CORDEX-SEA simulations at 25 km spatial resolution, were examined for emission scenarios of RCP4.5 and RCP8.5. The study utilised four different indicators of rainfall extreme, i.e. the annual/seasonal rainfall total (PRCPTOT), consecutive dry days (CDD), frequency of extremely heavy rainfall (R50mm) and annual/seasonal maximum of daily rainfall (RX1day). In general, changes in extreme indices are more pronounced and covering wider area under RCP8.5 than RCP4.5. The decrease in annual PRCPTOT is projected over most of SEA region, except for Myanmar and Northern Thailand, with magnitude as much as 20% (30%) under RCP4.5 (RCP8.5) scenario. The most significant and robust changes were noted in CDD, which is projected to increase by as much as 30% under RCP4.5 and 60% under RCP8.5, particularly over Maritime Continent (MC). The projected decrease in PRCPTOT over MC is significant and robust during June to August (JJA) and September to November (SON). During March to May (MAM) under RCP8.5, significant and robust PRCPTOT decreases are also projected over Indochina. The CDD changes during JJA and SON over MC are even higher, more robust and significant compared to the annual changes. At the same time, a wetting tendency is also projected over Indochina. The R50mm and RX1day are projected to increase, during all seasons with significant and robust signal of RX1day during JJA and SON.
    Matched MeSH terms: Climate Change*
  10. Paynter S, Ware RS, Weinstein P, Williams G, Sly PD
    Lancet, 2010 Nov 27;376(9755):1804-5.
    PMID: 21111894 DOI: 10.1016/S0140-6736(10)62141-1
    Matched MeSH terms: Climate Change*
  11. Mohamad Syamim Hilm, Sofianita Mutalib, Sarifah Radiah Shari, Siti Nur Kamaliah Kamarudin
    ESTEEM Academic Journal, 2020;16(2):31-40.
    MyJurnal
    Electricity is one of the most important resources and fundamental infrastructure for every nation. Its milestone shows a significant contribution to world development that brought forth new technological breakthroughs throughout the centuries. Electricity demand constantly fluctuates, which affects the supply. Suppliers need to generate more electrical energy when demand is high, and less when demand is low. It is a common practice in power markets to have a reserve margin for unexpected fluctuation of demand. This research paper investigates regression techniques: multiple linear regression (MLR) and vector autoregression (VAR) to forecast demand with predictors of economic growth, population growth, and climate change as well as the demand itself. Auto-Regressive Integrated Moving Average (Auto-ARIMA) was used in benchmarking the forecasting. The results from MLR and VAR (lag-values=20) and Auto-ARIMA are monitored for five months from June to October of 2019. Using the root mean square error (RMSE) as an indicator for accuracy, Auto-ARIMA has the lowest RMSE for four months except in June 2019. VAR (lag-values=20) shows good forecasting capabilities for all five months, considering it uses the same lag values (20) for each month. Three different techniques have been successfully examined in order to find the best model for the prediction of the demand.
    Matched MeSH terms: Climate Change
  12. Virdis SGP, Kongwarakom S, Juneng L, Padedda BM, Shrestha S
    Environ Res, 2024 Apr 15;247:118412.
    PMID: 38316380 DOI: 10.1016/j.envres.2024.118412
    The temperature of surface and epilimnetic waters, closely related to regional air temperatures, responds quickly and directly to climatic changes. As a result, lake surface temperature (LSWT) can be considered an effective indicator of climate change. In this study, we reconstructed and investigated historical and future LSWT across different scenarios for over 80 major lakes in mainland Southeast Asia (SEA), an ecologically diverse region vulnerable to climate impacts. Five different predicting models, incorporating statistical, machine and deep learning approaches, were trained and validated using ERA5 and CHIRPS climatic feature datasets as predictors and 8-day MODIS-derived LSWT from 2000 to 2020 as reference dataset. Best performing model was then applied to predict both historical (1986-2020) and future (2020-2100) LSWT for SEA lakes, utilizing downscaled climatic CORDEX-SEA feature data and multiple Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP). The analysis uncovered historical and future thermal dynamics and long-term trends for both daytime and nighttime LSWT. Among 5 models, XGboost results the most performant (NSE 0.85, RMSE 1.14 °C, MAE 0.69 °C, MBE -0.08 °C) and it has been used for historical reconstruction and future LSWT prediction. The historical analysis revealed a warming trend in SEA lakes, with daytime LSWT increasing at a rate of +0.18 °C/decade and nighttime LSWT at +0.13 °C/decade over the past three decades. These trends appeared of smaller magnitude compared to global estimates of LSWT change rates and less pronounced than concurrent air temperature and LSWT increases in neighbouring regions. Projections under various RCP scenarios indicated continued LSWT warming. Daytime LSWT is projected to increase at varying rates per decade: +0.03 °C under RCP2.6, +0.14 °C under RCP4.5, and +0.29 °C under RCP8.5. Similarly, nighttime LSWT projections under these scenarios are: +0.03 °C, +0.10 °C, and +0.16 °C per decade, respectively. The most optimistic scenario predicted marginal increases of +0.38 °C on average, while the most pessimistic scenario indicated an average LSWT increase of +2.29 °C by end of the century. This study highlights the relevance of LSWT as a climate change indicator in major SEA's freshwater ecosystems. The integration of satellite-derived LSWT, historical and projected climate data into data-driven modelling has enabled new and a more nuanced understanding of LSWT dynamics in relation to climate throughout the entire SEA region.
    Matched MeSH terms: Climate Change
  13. Cheah WY, Ling TC, Juan JC, Lee DJ, Chang JS, Show PL
    Bioresour Technol, 2016 Sep;215:346-56.
    PMID: 27090405 DOI: 10.1016/j.biortech.2016.04.019
    Greenhouse gas emissions have several adverse environmental effects, like pollution and climate change. Currently applied carbon capture and storage (CCS) methods are not cost effective and have not been proven safe for long term sequestration. Another attractive approach is CO2 valorization, whereby CO2 can be captured in the form of biomass via photosynthesis and is subsequently converted into various form of bioenergy. This article summarizes the current carbon sequestration and utilization technologies, while emphasizing the value of bioconversion of CO2. In particular, CO2 sequestration by terrestrial plants, microalgae and other microorganisms are discussed. Prospects and challenges for CO2 conversion are addressed. The aim of this review is to provide comprehensive knowledge and updated information on the current advances in biological CO2 sequestration and valorization, which are essential if this approach is to achieve environmental sustainability and economic feasibility.
    Matched MeSH terms: Climate Change*
  14. Musa SM, Ripley DM, Moritz T, Shiels HA
    J Fish Biol, 2020 Jul;97(1):257-264.
    PMID: 32383486 DOI: 10.1111/jfb.14370
    Elasmobranchs are key to a healthy marine ecosystem but are under threat from human activities, such as destructive fisheries and shark finning. Embryos of oviparous elasmobranchs may be further challenged during development by rising temperatures and falling dissolved oxygen concentrations in their intertidal environment. However, the impact of climate change on survival and growth of oviparous elasmobranchs is still poorly understood. Here, we investigate the effects of temperature and hypoxia on the growth and survival of small-spotted catshark (Scyliorhinus canicula) embryos by incubating eggs in normoxia 15°C, normoxia 20°C, hypoxia 15°C, or hypoxia 20°C. Incubation under the elevated temperature increased the embryonic growth rate, yolk consumption rate and Fulton's condition factor at hatching, whilst decreasing the total length and body mass of newly hatched sharks. Under low oxygen conditions (50% air saturation) the survival rate of S. canicula embryos dropped significantly and the temperature-induced increase in Fulton's condition factor was reversed. Together, these data demonstrate both the individual and compound effects of elevated temperature and hypoxia on the survival and growth during early ontogeny of a ubiquitous, coastal elasmobranch, S. canicula.
    Matched MeSH terms: Climate Change*
  15. Zhang M, Zhang F, Guo L, Dong P, Cheng C, Kumar P, et al.
    J Environ Manage, 2023 Dec 15;348:119465.
    PMID: 37924697 DOI: 10.1016/j.jenvman.2023.119465
    Grassland degradation poses a serious threat to biodiversity, ecosystem services, and human well-being. In this study, we investigated grassland degradation in Zhaosu County, China, between 2001 and 2020, and analyzed the impacts of climate change and human activities using the Miami model. The actual net primary productivity (ANPP) obtained with CASA (Carnegie-Ames-Stanford Approach) modeling, showed a decreasing trend, reflecting the significant degradation that the grasslands in Zhaosu County have experienced in the past 20 years. Grassland degradation was found to be highest in 2018, while the degraded area continuously decreased in the last 3 years (2018-2020). Climatic factors for found to be the dominant factor affecting grassland degradation, particularly the decrease in precipitation. On the other hand, human activities were found to be the main factor affecting improvement of grasslands, especially in recent years. This finding profoundly elucidates the underlying causes of grassland degradation and improvement and helps implement ecological conservation and restoration measures. From a practical perspective, the research results provide an important reference for the formulation of policies and management strategies for sustainable land use.
    Matched MeSH terms: Climate Change
  16. Vilcins D, Christofferson RC, Yoon JH, Nazli SN, Sly PD, Cormier SA, et al.
    Ann Glob Health, 2024;90(1):9.
    PMID: 38312715 DOI: 10.5334/aogh.4363
    BACKGROUND: The United Nations has declared that humans have a right to clean air. Despite this, many deaths and disability-adjusted life years are attributed to air pollution exposure each year. We face both challenges to air quality and opportunities to improve, but several areas need to be addressed with urgency.

    OBJECTIVE: This paper summarises the recent research presented at the Pacific Basin Consortium for Environment and Health Symposium and focuses on three key areas of air pollution that are important to human health and require more research.

    FINDINGS AND CONCLUSION: Indoor spaces are commonly places of exposure to poor air quality and are difficult to monitor and regulate. Global climate change risks worsening air quality in a bi-directional fashion. The rising use of electric vehicles may offer opportunities to improve air quality, but it also presents new challenges. Government policies and initiatives could lead to improved air and environmental justice. Several populations, such as older people and children, face increased harm from air pollution and should become priority groups for action.

    Matched MeSH terms: Climate Change
  17. Zin, Thant, Myint, Than, Htay, Kyaw, Shamsul, B. S.
    MyJurnal
    Island health differs from other health care systems, particularly in that there are limited resources and referral faculties available. With globalisation and climate change, island populations have become increasingly vulnerable to natural disasters and global pandemics. This study will identify, explore, compare and report on island health issues facing in the western Pacific, before making appropriate recommendations. A review of selected health indicators in Pacific islands was collected from the World Health Organization (WHO) and other publicly available resources. In the Pacific region, 15 islands saw lower health expenditure (
    Matched MeSH terms: Climate Change
  18. Yaseen ZM, Ali M, Sharafati A, Al-Ansari N, Shahid S
    Sci Rep, 2021 Feb 09;11(1):3435.
    PMID: 33564055 DOI: 10.1038/s41598-021-82977-9
    A noticeable increase in drought frequency and severity has been observed across the globe due to climate change, which attracted scientists in development of drought prediction models for mitigation of impacts. Droughts are usually monitored using drought indices (DIs), most of which are probabilistic and therefore, highly stochastic and non-linear. The current research investigated the capability of different versions of relatively well-explored machine learning (ML) models including random forest (RF), minimum probability machine regression (MPMR), M5 Tree (M5tree), extreme learning machine (ELM) and online sequential-ELM (OSELM) in predicting the most widely used DI known as standardized precipitation index (SPI) at multiple month horizons (i.e., 1, 3, 6 and 12). Models were developed using monthly rainfall data for the period of 1949-2013 at four meteorological stations namely, Barisal, Bogra, Faridpur and Mymensingh, each representing a geographical region of Bangladesh which frequently experiences droughts. The model inputs were decided based on correlation statistics and the prediction capability was evaluated using several statistical metrics including mean square error (MSE), root mean square error (RMSE), mean absolute error (MAE), correlation coefficient (R), Willmott's Index of agreement (WI), Nash Sutcliffe efficiency (NSE), and Legates and McCabe Index (LM). The results revealed that the proposed models are reliable and robust in predicting droughts in the region. Comparison of the models revealed ELM as the best model in forecasting droughts with minimal RMSE in the range of 0.07-0.85, 0.08-0.76, 0.062-0.80 and 0.042-0.605 for Barisal, Bogra, Faridpur and Mymensingh, respectively for all the SPI scales except one-month SPI for which the RF showed the best performance with minimal RMSE of 0.57, 0.45, 0.59 and 0.42, respectively.
    Matched MeSH terms: Climate Change
  19. Hamed MM, Salehie O, Nashwan MS, Shahid S
    Environ Sci Pollut Res Int, 2023 Mar;30(13):38063-38075.
    PMID: 36576621 DOI: 10.1007/s11356-022-24985-4
    Global warming has amplified the frequency of temperature extremes, especially in hot dry countries, which could have serious consequences for the natural and built environments. Egypt is one of the hot desert climate regions that are more susceptible to climate change and associated hazards. This study attempted to project the changes in temperature extremes for three Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs), namely, SSP1-2.6, SSP2-4.5, and SSP5-8.5 and two future periods (early future: 2020-2059 and late future: 2060-2099) by using daily maximum (Tmax) and minimum temperature (Tmin) of general circulation model (GCMs) of Coupled Model Inter-comparison Project phase 6 (CMIP6). The findings showed that most temperature extreme indices would increase especially by the end of the century. In the late future, the change in the mean Tmin (4.3 °C) was projected to be higher than the mean Tmax (3.7 °C). Annual maximum Tmax, temperature above 95th percentile of Tmax, and the number of hot days above 40 °C and 45 °C were projected to increase in the range 3.0‒5.4 °C, 1.5‒4.8 °C, 20‒95 days, and 10‒52 days, respectively. In contrast, the annual minimum of Tmin, temperature below the 5th percentile, and the annual percentage of cold nights were projected to change in the range of 2.95‒5.0 °C, 1.4‒3.6 °C, and - 0.1‒0.1%, respectively. In all the cases, the lowest changes would be for SSP1-2.6 in the early period and the greatest changes for SSP5-8.5 in the late period. The study indicates that the country is likely to experience a rise in hot extremes and a decline in cold extremes. Therefore, Egypt should take long-term adaptation plans to build social resiliency to rising hot extremes.
    Matched MeSH terms: Climate Change*
  20. Abasi F, Raja NI, Mashwani ZU, Ehsan M, Ali H, Shahbaz M
    Int J Biol Macromol, 2024 Jan;256(Pt 1):128379.
    PMID: 38000583 DOI: 10.1016/j.ijbiomac.2023.128379
    Extreme changes in weather including heat-wave and high-temperature fluctuations are predicted to increase in intensity and duration due to climate change. Wheat being a major staple crop is under severe threat of heat stress especially during the grain-filling stage. Widespread food insecurity underscores the critical need to comprehend crop responses to forthcoming climatic shifts, pivotal for devising adaptive strategies ensuring sustainable crop productivity. This review addresses insights concerning antioxidant, physiological, molecular impacts, tolerance mechanisms, and nanotechnology-based strategies and how wheat copes with heat stress at the reproductive stage. In this study stress resilience strategies were documented for sustainable grain production under heat stress at reproductive stage. Additionally, the mechanisms of heat resilience including gene expression, nanomaterials that trigger transcription factors, (HSPs) during stress, and physiological and antioxidant traits were explored. The most reliable method to improve plant resilience to heat stress must include nano-biotechnology-based strategies, such as the adoption of nano-fertilizers in climate-smart practices and the use of advanced molecular approaches. Notably, the novel resistance genes through advanced molecular approach and nanomaterials exhibit promise for incorporation into wheat cultivars, conferring resilience against imminent adverse environmental conditions. This review will help scientific communities in thermo-tolerance wheat cultivars and new emerging strategies to mitigate the deleterious impact of heat stress.
    Matched MeSH terms: Climate Change
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