METHODS & RESULTS: We extend and apply an environmental niche modelling framework as implemented by a previous mapping study of P. knowlesi transmission risk which included data up to 2015. We reviewed the literature from October 2015 through to March 2020 and identified 264 new records of P. knowlesi, with a total of 524 occurrences included in the current study following consolidation with the 2015 study. The modelling framework used in the 2015 study was extended, with changes including the addition of new covariates to capture the effect of deforestation and urbanisation on P. knowlesi transmission.
DISCUSSION: Our map of P. knowlesi relative transmission suitability estimates that the risk posed by the pathogen is highest in Malaysia and Indonesia, with localised areas of high risk also predicted in the Greater Mekong Subregion, The Philippines and Northeast India. These results highlight areas of priority for P. knowlesi surveillance and prospective sampling to address the challenge the disease poses to malaria elimination planning.
METHODS: A total of 93 blood samples from Macaca fascicularis, Macaca leonina and Macaca arctoides were collected from four locations in Thailand: 32 were captive M. fascicularis from Chachoengsao Province (CHA), 4 were wild M. fascicularis from Ranong Province (RAN), 32 were wild M. arctoides from Prachuap Kiri Khan Province (PRA), and 25 were wild M. leonina from Nakornratchasima Province (NAK). DNA was extracted from these samples and analysed by nested PCR assays to detect Plasmodium, and subsequently to detect P. knowlesi, P. coatneyi, P. cynomolgi, P. inui and P. fieldi.
RESULTS: Twenty-seven of the 93 (29%) samples were Plasmodium-positive by nested PCR assays. Among wild macaques, all 4 M. fascicularis at RAN were infected with malaria parasites followed by 50% of 32 M. arctoides at PRA and 20% of 25 M. leonina at NAK. Only 2 (6.3%) of the 32 captive M. fascicularis at CHA were malaria-positive. All 5 species of Plasmodium were detected and 16 (59.3%) of the 27 macaques had single infections, 9 had double and 2 had triple infections. The composition of Plasmodium species in macaques at each sampling site was different. Macaca arctoides from PRA were infected with P. knowlesi, P. coatneyi, P. cynomolgi, P. inui and P. fieldi.
CONCLUSIONS: The prevalence and species of Plasmodium varied among the wild and captive macaques, and between macaques at 4 sampling sites in Thailand. Macaca arctoides is a new natural host for P. knowlesi, P. inui, P. coatneyi and P. fieldi.
METHODS: A multi-host, multi-site transmission model was developed, taking into account the three areas (forest, farm, and village) where transmission is thought to occur. Latin hypercube sampling of model parameters was used to identify parameter sets consistent with possible prevalence in macaques and humans inferred from observed data. We then explore the consequences of increasing human-macaque contact in the farm, the likely impact of rapid treatment, and the use of long-lasting insecticide-treated nets (LLINs) in preventing wider spread of this emerging infection.
RESULTS: Identified model parameters were consistent with transmission being sustained by the macaques with spill over infections into the human population and with high overall basic reproduction numbers (up to 2267). The extent to which macaques forage in the farms had a non-linear relationship with human infection prevalence, the highest prevalence occurring when macaques forage in the farms but return frequently to the forest where they experience higher contact with vectors and hence sustain transmission. Only one of 1,046 parameter sets was consistent with sustained human-to-human transmission in the absence of macaques, although with a low human reproduction number (R(0H) = 1.04). Simulations showed LLINs and rapid treatment provide personal protection to humans with maximal estimated reductions in human prevalence of 42% and 95%, respectively.
CONCLUSION: This model simulates conditions where P. knowlesi transmission may occur and the potential impact of control measures. Predictions suggest that conventional control measures are sufficient at reducing the risk of infection in humans, but they must be actively implemented if P. knowlesi is to be controlled.