OBJECTIVES: To determine the cost-effectiveness of universal HLA-B*15:02 screening in preventing carbamazepine-induced Stevens-Johnson syndrome/toxic epidermal necrolysis in an ethnically diverse Malaysian population.
METHODS: A hybrid model of a decision tree and Markov model was developed to evaluate three strategies for treating newly diagnosed epilepsy among adults: (i) carbamazepine initiation without HLA-B*15:02 screening (current practice); (ii) universal HLA-B*15:02 screening prior to carbamazepine initiation; and (iii) alternative treatment [sodium valproate (VPA)] prescribing without HLA-B*15:02 screening. Base-case analysis and sensitivity analyses were performed over a lifetime time horizon. Incremental cost-effectiveness ratios were calculated.
RESULTS: Both universal HLA-B*15:02 screening and VPA prescribing were dominated by current practice. Compared with current practice, universal HLA-B*15:02 screening resulted in a loss of 0·0255 quality-adjusted life years (QALYs) at an additional cost of 707 U.S. dollars (USD); VPA prescribing resulted in a loss of 0·2622 QALYs at an additional cost of USD 4127, owing to estimated differences in antiepileptic treatment efficacy.
CONCLUSIONS: Universal HLA-B*15:02 screening is unlikely to be a cost-effective intervention in Malaysia. However, with the emergence of an ethnically diverse population in many other countries, this may render HLA-B*15:02 screening a viable intervention when an increasing proportion of the population is at risk and an equally effective yet safer antiepileptic drug is available.
METHODS: Using Singapore Malaysia Hospital-Based Breast Cancer Registry, clinical information was retrieved from 7064 stage I to III breast cancer patients who were diagnosed between 1990 and 2011 and underwent surgery. Predicted and observed probabilities of positive nodes and survival were compared for each subgroup. Calibration was assessed by plotting observed value against predicted value for each decile of the predicted value. Discrimination was evaluated by area under a receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC) with 95 % confidence interval (CI).
RESULTS: The median predicted probability of positive lymph nodes is 40.6 % which was lower than the observed 43.6 % (95 % CI, 42.5 %-44.8 %). The calibration plot showed underestimation for most of the groups. The AUC was 0.71 (95 % CI, 0.70-0.72). Cancermath predicted and observed overall survival probabilities were 87.3 % vs 83.4 % at 5 years after diagnosis and 75.3 % vs 70.4 % at 10 years after diagnosis. The difference was smaller for patients from Singapore, patients diagnosed more recently and patients with favorable tumor characteristics. Calibration plot also illustrated overprediction of survival for patients with poor prognosis. The AUC for 5-year and 10-year overall survival was 0.77 (95 % CI: 0.75-0.79) and 0.74 (95 % CI: 0.71-0.76).
CONCLUSIONS: The discrimination and calibration of CancerMath were modest. The results suggest that clinical application of CancerMath should be limited to patients with better prognostic profile.
MAIN METHODS: A curcumin derivative (Z)-3-hydroxy-1-(2-hydroxyphenyl)-3-phenylprop-2-en-1-one (DK1) was synthesized and its cytotoxicity was tested on breast cancer cell MCF-7 and normal cell MCF-10A using MTT assay. Meanwhile, cell cycle regulation and apoptosis on MCF-7 cell were evaluated using flow cytometry. Regulation of cell cycle and apoptosis related genes expression was investigated by quantitative real time polymerase chain reaction (qRT-PCR), western blot and caspases activity analyses. Activation of oxidative stress on MCF-7 were evaluated by measuring ROS and GSH levels.
KEY FINDINGS: DK1 was found to possess selective cytotoxicity on breast cancer MCF-7 cell than normal MCF-10A cell. Flow cytometry cell cycle and AnnexinV/PI analyses reported that DK1 effectively arrested MCF-7 at G2/M phase and induced apoptosis after 72 h of incubation than curcumin. Upregulation of p53, p21 and downregulation of PLK-1 subsequently promote phosphorylation of CDC2 which were found contributed to the arrest of G2/M phase. Moreover, increased of reactive oxygen species and reduced of antioxidant glutathione level correlate with apoptosis observed with raised of cytochrome c and active caspase 9.
SIGNIFICANCE: DK1 was found to be more effective in inducing cell cycle arrest and apoptosis against MCF-7 cell with much higher selectivity index of MCF-10A/MCF-7 than curcumin, which might be contributed by the overexpression of p53 protein.