METHODS: This cross-sectional study collected publicly available data on COVID-19 clusters occurring in Malaysia from 1 March 2020 to 31 May 2021. The characteristics of cases were described by category, and their associations with several outcomes were analysed. Descriptive analyses were performed to explore the method used to detect the index case and the mode of early transmission, according to cluster category.

RESULTS: A total of 2188 clusters were identified. The workplace cluster category had the largest proportion of clusters (51.5%, 1126/2188 clusters), while the custodial settings category had the largest median cluster size (178 cases per cluster) and longest median duration of cluster (51 days). The high-risk groups category had the highest mortality. There were significant differences in cluster size, duration and rate of detection across the categories. Targeted screening was most commonly used to detect index cases, especially in custodial settings, and in imported and workplace clusters. Household-social and social-workplace contacts were the most common modes of early transmission across most categories.

METHODS: This study proposed a deterministic, compartmental model with contact tracing and vaccination components. We defined contact tracing effectiveness as the proportion of contacts of a positive case that was successfully traced and the vaccination rate as the proportion of daily doses administered per population in Malaysia. Sensitivity analyses on the untraced and infectious populations were conducted.

RESULTS: At a vaccination rate of 1.4%, contact tracing with an effectiveness of 70% could delay the peak of untraced asymptomatic cases by 17 d and reduce it by 70% compared with 30% contact tracing effectiveness. A similar trend was observed for symptomatic cases when a similar experiment setting was used. We also performed sensitivity analyses by using different combinations of contact tracing effectiveness and vaccination rates. In all scenarios, the effect of contact tracing on COVID-19 incidence persisted for both asymptomatic and symptomatic cases.

METHOD: A research-to-policy forum was convened by TDR, the Special Programme for Research and Training in Tropical Diseases, with researchers and representatives from ministries of health, in order to review research findings and discuss their implications for policy and research.

RESULTS: The participants reviewed findings of research supported by TDR and others. Surveillance and early outbreak warning. Systematic reviews and country studies identify the critical characteristics that an alert system should have to document trends reliably and trigger timely responses (i.e., early enough to prevent the epidemic spread of the virus) to dengue outbreaks. A range of variables that, according to the literature, either indicate risk of forthcoming dengue transmission or predict dengue outbreaks were tested and some of them could be successfully applied in an Early Warning and Response System (EWARS). Entomological surveillance and vector management. A summary of the published literature shows that controlling Aedes vectors requires complex interventions and points to the need for more rigorous, standardised study designs, with disease reduction as the primary outcome to be measured. House screening and targeted vector interventions are promising vector management approaches. Sampling vector populations, both for surveillance purposes and evaluation of control activities, is usually conducted in an unsystematic way, limiting the potentials of entomological surveillance for outbreak prediction. Combining outbreak alert and improved approaches of vector management will help to overcome the present uncertainties about major risk groups or areas where outbreak response should be initiated and where resources for vector management should be allocated during the interepidemic period.

METHODS: We assembled 1155 geographical records of yellow fever virus infection in people from 1970 to 2016. We used a Poisson point process boosted regression tree model that explicitly incorporated environmental and biological explanatory covariates, vaccination coverage, and spatial variability in disease reporting rates to predict the relative risk of apparent yellow fever virus infection at a 5 × 5 km resolution across all risk zones (47 countries across the Americas and Africa). We also used the fitted model to predict the receptivity of areas outside at-risk zones to the introduction or reintroduction of yellow fever transmission. By use of previously published estimates of annual national case numbers, we used the model to map subnational variation in incidence of yellow fever across at-risk countries and to estimate the number of cases averted by vaccination worldwide.

FINDINGS: Substantial international and subnational spatial variation exists in relative risk and incidence of yellow fever as well as varied success of vaccination in reducing incidence in several high-risk regions, including Brazil, Cameroon, and Togo. Areas with the highest predicted average annual case numbers include large parts of Nigeria, the Democratic Republic of the Congo, and South Sudan, where vaccination coverage in 2016 was estimated to be substantially less than the recommended threshold to prevent outbreaks. Overall, we estimated that vaccination coverage levels achieved by 2016 avert between 94 336 and 118 500 cases of yellow fever annually within risk zones, on the basis of conservative and optimistic vaccination scenarios. The areas outside at-risk regions with predicted high receptivity to yellow fever transmission (eg, parts of Malaysia, Indonesia, and Thailand) were less extensive than the distribution of the main urban vector, A aegypti, with low receptivity to yellow fever transmission in southern China, where A aegypti is known to occur.

INTERPRETATION: Our results provide the evidence base for targeting vaccination campaigns within risk zones, as well as emphasising their high effectiveness. Our study highlights areas where public health authorities should be most vigilant for potential spread or importation events.

OUTBREAK SITUATION: A stringent screening process at all airports in Malaysia was enforced after the first case outside China was reported in Thailand. Up to April 14, 2020, Malaysia had reported two waves of COVID-19 cases, with the first wave ending successfully within less than 2 months. In early March 2020, the second wave occurred, with worrying situations.

ACTIONS TAKEN: The Government of Malaysia enforced a Movement Control Order starting on March 18, 2020 to break the chain of COVID-19. The media actively spread the hashtag #stayhome. Non-governmental organizations, as well as prison inmates, started to produce personal protective equipment for frontliners. Various organizations hosted fundraising events to provide essentials mainly to hospitals. A provisional hospital was set up and collaborations with healthcare service providers were granted, while additional laboratories were assigned to enhance the capabilities of the Ministry of Health.