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Predicting attitudinal and behavioral responses to COVID-19 pandemic using machine learning

Pavlović T 1 , Azevedo F 2 , De K 3 , Riaño-Moreno JC 4 , Maglić M 1 , Gkinopoulos T 5 Show all authors , Donnelly-Kehoe PA 6 , Payán-Gómez C 7 , Huang G 8 , Kantorowicz J 9 , Birtel MD 10 , Schönegger P 11 , Capraro V 12 , Santamaría-García H 13 , Yucel M 14 , Ibanez A 15 , Rathje S 16 , Wetter E 17 , Stanojević D 18 , van Prooijen JW 19 , Hesse E 20 , Elbaek CT 21 , Franc R 1 , Pavlović Z 22 , Mitkidis P 21 , Cichocka A 23 , Gelfand M 24 , Alfano M 25 , Ross RM 25 , Sjåstad H 26 , Nezlek JB 27 , Cislak A 28 , Lockwood P 29 , Abts K 30 , Agadullina E 31 , Amodio DM 32 , Apps MAJ 29 , Aruta JJB 33 , Besharati S 34 , Bor A 35 , Choma B 36 , Cunningham W 37 , Ejaz W 38 , Farmer H 39 , Findor A 40 , Gjoneska B 41 , Gualda E 42 , Huynh TLD 43 , Imran MA 44 , Israelashvili J 45 , Kantorowicz-Reznichenko E 46 , Krouwel A 47 , Kutiyski Y 48 , Laakasuo M 49 , Lamm C 50 , Levy J 51 , Leygue C 52 , Lin MJ 53 , Mansoor MS 54 , Marie A 35 , Mayiwar L 55 , Mazepus H 56 , McHugh C 57 , Olsson A 58 , Otterbring T 59 , Packer D 60 , Palomäki J 49 , Perry A 45 , Petersen MB 35 , Puthillam A 61 , Rothmund T 62 , Schmid PC 63 , Stadelmann D 64 , Stoica A 65 , Stoyanov D 66 , Stoyanova K 67 , Tewari S 68 , Todosijević B 69 , Torgler B 70 , Tsakiris M 71 , Tung HH 72 , Umbreș RG 73 , Vanags E 74 , Vlasceanu M 75 , Vonasch AJ 76 , Zhang Y 77 , Abad M 78 , Adler E 45 , Mdarhri HA 78 , Antazo B 79 , Ay FC 80 , Ba MEH 81 , Barbosa S 82 , Bastian B 83 , Berg A 49 , Białek M 84 , Bilancini E 85 , Bogatyreva N 86 , Boncinelli L 87 , Booth JE 88 , Borau S 89 , Buchel O 90 , de Carvalho CF 91 , Celadin T 92 , Cerami C 93 , Chalise HN 94 , Cheng X 95 , Cian L 96 , Cockcroft K 34 , Conway J 97 , Córdoba-Delgado MA 98 , Crespi C 99 , Crouzevialle M 63 , Cutler J 100 , Cypryańska M 27 , Dabrowska J 101 , Davis VH 102 , Minda JP 103 , Dayley PN 104 , Delouvée S 105 , Denkovski O 106 , Dezecache G 107 , Dhaliwal NA 108 , Diato A 109 , Di Paolo R 85 , Dulleck U 110 , Ekmanis J 111 , Etienne TW 112 , Farhana HH 113 , Farkhari F 114 , Fidanovski K 115 , Flew T 116 , Fraser S 117 , Frempong RB 64 , Fugelsang J 118 , Gale J 76 , García-Navarro EB 119 , Garladinne P 68 , Gray K 120 , Griffin SM 57 , Gronfeldt B 23 , Gruber J 121 , Halperin E 45 , Herzon V 49 , Hruška M 40 , Hudecek MFC 122 , Isler O 110 , Jangard S 58 , Jørgensen F 35 , Keudel O 123 , Koppel L 124 , Koverola M 49 , Kunnari A 125 , Leota J 126 , Lermer E 127 , Li C 88 , Longoni C 128 , McCashin D 129 , Mikloušić I 1 , Molina-Paredes J 130 , Monroy-Fonseca C 131 , Morales-Marente E 132 , Moreau D 133 , Muda R 134 , Myer A 135 , Nash K 136 , Nitschke JP 50 , Nurse MS 137 , de Mello VO 37 , Palacios-Galvez MS 132 , Pan Y 138 , Papp Z 139 , Pärnamets P 58 , Paruzel-Czachura M 140 , Perander S 141 , Pitman M 34 , Raza A 142 , Rêgo GG 143 , Robertson C 144 , Rodríguez-Pascual I 132 , Saikkonen T 145 , Salvador-Ginez O 146 , Sampaio WM 143 , Santi GC 147 , Schultner D 148 , Schutte E 34 , Scott A 135 , Skali A 149 , Stefaniak A 150 , Sternisko A 144 , Strickland B 151 , Thomas JP 88 , Tinghög G 123 , Traast IJ 152 , Tucciarelli R 153 , Tyrala M 154 , Ungson ND 155 , Uysal MS 156 , Van Rooy D 157 , Västfjäll D 158 , Vieira JB 58 , von Sikorski C 159 , Walker AC 117 , Watermeyer J 160 , Willardt R 63 , Wohl MJA 150 , Wójcik AD 161 , Wu K 162 , Yamada Y 163 , Yilmaz O 164 , Yogeeswaran K 76 , Ziemer CT 165 , Zwaan RA 166 , Boggio PS 143 , Whillans A 167 , Van Lange PAM 19 , Prasad R 168 , Onderco M 169 , O'Madagain C 78 , Nesh-Nash T 170 , Laguna OM 48 , Kubin E 159 , Gümren M 171 , Fenwick A 172 , Ertan AS 173 , Bernstein MJ 174 , Amara H 171 , Van Bavel JJ 144

Affiliations 

  • 1 Institute of Social Sciences Ivo Pilar, Zagreb, Croatia
  • 2 Department of Psychology, Cambridge University, Cambridge, UK
  • 3 Department of Finance and Quantitative Methods, Gatton College of Business and Economics, University of Kentucky, Lexington, KY, USA
  • 4 Faculty of Medicine, Cooperative University of Colombia, Villavicencio, Meta, Colombia and Department of bioethics, El Bosque University, Bogotá D.C. Colombia
  • 5 Department of Philosophy and Social Studies, University of Crete, Rethymnon, Crete, Greece
  • 6 Department of Research and Development, Kozaca SA, Rosario, Santa Fe, Argentina
  • 7 Direccion Academica Sede la Paz,Universidad Nacional de Colombia - Sede de La Paz, Cesar, Colombia
  • 8 Department of Media and Communication, City University of Hong Kong, Kowloon Tong, Hong Kong
  • 9 Department of Economics, Institute of Security and Global Affairs, Leiden University, The Hague, Netherlands
  • 10 School of Human Sciences, University of Greenwich, London, UK
  • 11 Department of Philosophy, School of Economics and Finance, University of St Andrews, St Andrews, UK
  • 12 Department of Economics, Middlesex University London, London, UK
  • 13 Department of Psychiatry, Pontifical Xavierian University, Bogotá, Colombia
  • 14 Department of Psychology and Neuroscience, Duke University, Durham, NC, USA
  • 15 Latin American Brain Health Institute (BrainLat), Universidad Adolfo Ibañez, Santiago, Peñalolén, Chile
  • 16 Department of Psychology, University of Cambridge, Cambridge, UK
  • 17 Department of Business Administration, Stockholm School of Economics, Stockholm, Sweden
  • 18 Department of Sociology, Faculty of Philosophy, University of Belgrade, Belgrade, Serbia
  • 19 Department of Experimental and Applied Psychology, Vrije Universiteit Amsterdam, Amsterdam, Netherlands
  • 20 Departamento de Matemática y Ciencias, Universidad de San Andres, Victoria, Buenos Aires, Argentina
  • 21 Department of Management, Aarhus University, Aarhus, Denmark
  • 22 Department of Psychology, Faculty of Philosophy, University of Belgrade, Belgrade, Serbia
  • 23 School of Psychology, University of Kent, Canterbury, UK
  • 24 Stanford Graduate School of Business, Stanford University, Stanford, California, USA
  • 25 Department of Philosophy, Macquarie University, Macquarie Park, New South Wales, Australia
  • 26 Department of Strategy and Management, Norwegian School of Economics, Bergen, Norway
  • 27 Institute of Psychology, Center for Climate Action and Social Transformations, SWPS, University of Social Sciences and Humanities, Warsaw, Poland
  • 28 Institute of Psychology, SWPS University of Social Sciences and Humanities, Warsaw, Poland
  • 29 Centre for Human Brain Health,School of Psychology, University of Birmingham, Birmingham, UK
  • 30 Centre for Sociological Research, Katholieke Universiteit Leuven, Leuven, Belgium
  • 31 Faculty of Psychology, Higher School of Economics University, Moscow, Russia
  • 32 Department of Psychology, University of Amsterdam, Amsterdam, Netherlands
  • 33 Department of Psychology, Sunway University, Petaling Jaya, Selangor, Malaysia
  • 34 Department of Psychology, University of the Witwatersrand, Johannesburg, Republic of South Africa
  • 35 Department of Political Science, Aarhus University, Aarhus, Denmark
  • 36 Department of Psychology, Toronto Metropolitan University, Toronto, Ontario, Canada
  • 37 Department of Psychology, University of Toronto, Toronto, Ontario, Canada
  • 38 Department of Mass Communication, National University of Science and Technology (NUST), Islamabad, Islamabad Capital Territory, Pakistan
  • 39 Department of Psychology, University of Greenwich, London, UK
  • 40 Institute of European Studies and International Relations, Faculty of Social and Economic Sciences, Comenius University, Bratislava, Slovakia
  • 41 Macedonian Academy of Sciences and Arts, Skopje, Republic of North Macedonia
  • 42 Department of Sociology, Social Work and Public Health, University of Huelva, Huelva, Spain
  • 43 Department of Decision Analytics and Risk, University of Southampton, Southampton, UK
  • 44 Department of Educational and Counselling Psychology, BRAC Institute of Educational and Development, BRAC University, Dhaka, Bangladesh
  • 45 Department of Psychology, Hebrew University of Jerusalem, Jerusalem, Israel
  • 46 Rotterdam Institute of Law and Economics (RILE), Erasmus University Rotterdam, Rotterdam, Netherlands
  • 47 Department of Communication Science, Vrije Universiteit Amsterdam, Amsterdam, Netherlands
  • 48 Kieskompas (Election Compass), Amsterdam, Netherlands
  • 49 Department of Digital Humanities, University of Helsinki, Helsinki, Finland
  • 50 Department of Cognition, Emotion, and Methods in Psychology, University of Vienna, Wien, Austria
  • 51 Department of Neuroscience and Biomedical Engineering, Aalto University, Espoo, Finland
  • 52 School of Psychology, Universidad Nacional Autónoma de Mexico, Mexico City, Mexico
  • 53 Department of Economics, National Taiwan University, Taipei, Taiwan
  • 54 HEMS School, Kathmandu, Nepal
  • 55 Department of Leadership and Organizational Behaviour, BI Norwegian Business School, Oslo, Norway
  • 56 Institute of Security and Global Affairs, Leiden University, The Hague, Netherlands
  • 57 Department of Psychology, University of Limerick, Limerick, Ireland
  • 58 Department of Clinical Neuroscience, Karolinska Institutet, Stockholm, Sweden
  • 59 Department of Management, University of Agder, Kristiansand, Norway
  • 60 Department of Psychology, Lehigh University, Bethlehem, PA, USA
  • 61 Department of Psychology, Monk Prayogshala, Powai, Mumbai, Maharashtra, India
  • 62 Department of Social and Behavioral Science, Friedrich Schiller University Jena, Jena, Germany
  • 63 Department of Management, Technology, and Economics, Swiss Federal Institute of Technology in Zürich, Zürich, Switzerland
  • 64 Chair of Development Economics,University of Bayreuth, Bayreuth, Germany
  • 65 Department of Sociology, National School for Political and Administrative Studies (SNSPA), Bucharest, Romania
  • 66 Department of Psychiatry and Medical Psychology, Medical University, Plovdiv, Bulgaria
  • 67 Division of Translational Neuroscience, Medical University, Plovdiv, Bulgaria
  • 68 Humanities and Social Sciences, Indian Institute of Management, Indore, Madhya Pradesh, India
  • 69 Institute of Social Sciences, Belgrade, Serbia
  • 70 School of Economics and Finance and Centre for Behavioural Economics, Society and Technology (BEST), Queensland University of Technology, Brisbane City, Queensland, Australia
  • 71 Department of Psychology, Royal Holloway, University of London, Egham, UK
  • 72 Department of Political Science, National Taiwan University, Taipei, Taiwan
  • 73 Faculty of Political Science, National University of Political Studies and Public Administration, Bucharest, Romania
  • 74 Psychology Department, University of Latvia, Riga, Latvia
  • 75 Department of Psychology, New York University, New York, NY, USA
  • 76 School of Psychology, Speech, and Hearing, University of Canterbury, Christchurch, New Zealand
  • 77 School of Economics and Management, Hebei University of Technology, Tianjin, China
  • 78 School of Collective Intelligence, Mohammed VI Polytechnic University, Ben Guerir, Morocco
  • 79 Department of Psychology, Jose Rizal University, Mandaluyong, Metro Manila, Philippines
  • 80 Department of Economics, Telenor Research, Fornebu, Norway
  • 81 Cheikh Anta Diop University, Dakar, Senegal
  • 82 School of Medicine and Health Sciences, Universidad del Rosario, Bogotá, Colombia
  • 83 Melbourne School of Psychological Sciences, University of Melbourne, Melbourne, Victoria, Australia
  • 84 Faculty of Historical and Pedagogical Sciences, University of Wroclaw, Wroclaw, Poland
  • 85 IMT School for Advanced Studies, Lucca, Italy
  • 86 Laboratory for Psychology of Social Inequality, Higher School of Economics University, Moscow, Russia
  • 87 Department of Economics and Management, University of Florence, Florence, Italy
  • 88 Department of Management, London School of Economics and Political Science, London, UK
  • 89 Department of Marketing, TBS Education, Toulouse, France
  • 90 The Institute for Sociology, Slovak Academy of Sciences, Bratislava, Slovakia
  • 91 Department of Psychology, Federal University of Santa Catarina, Florianopolis, Brazil
  • 92 Department of Economics, University of Bologna, Bologna, Italy
  • 93 IUSS Cognitive Neuroscience Center, University School for Advanced Studies, Pavia, Italy
  • 94 Central Department of Population Studies, Tribhuvan University, Kathmandu, Nepal
  • 95 School of Psychology, Shenzhen University, Shenzhen, China
  • 96 Department of Marketing, Darden School of Business, University of Virginia, Charlottesville, VA, USA
  • 97 MRC Social, Genetic and Developmental Psychiatry Centre,Institute for Advanced Study in Toulouse, Université Toulouse 1 Capitole, Toulouse Cedex 6, France
  • 98 Faculty of Medicine, Pontifical Xavierian University, Bogotá, Colombia
  • 99 U.O. Rho, Fondazione Luigi Clerici, Rho, Italy
  • 100 School of Psychology, University of Birmingham, Birmingham, UK
  • 101 Department of Trade and Market Institutions, Cracow University of Economics, Kraków, Poland
  • 102 Institute of Health Policy, Management and Evaluation, Dalla Lana School of Public Health, University of Toronto, Toronto, Ontario, Canada
  • 103 Department of Psychology, Western University, London, Ontario, Canada
  • 104 Department of Psychology, University of California - Los Angeles, Los Angeles, CA, USA
  • 105 Department of Psychology, Université Rennes 2, Rennes, France
  • 106 Department of Communication Science, University of Amsterdam, Amsterdam, Netherlands
  • 107 Université Clermont Auvergne LAPSCO, CNRS, Clermont-Ferrand, France
  • 108 UBC Sauder School of Business, University of British Columbia, Vancouver, British Columbia, Canada
  • 109 Teacher Education Department, Cavite State University, General Trias, Cavite, Philippines
  • 110 School of Economics and Finance, Queensland University of Technology, Brisbane City, Queensland, Australia
  • 111 Faculty of Education, Psychology and Art, University of Latvia, Riga, Latvia
  • 112 Kieskompas (Election Compass), Amsterdam, Netherlands and Department of Political Science & Annenberg School for Communication, University of Pennsylvania, PA, USA
  • 113 National Institute for the Intellectually Disabled and Autistic (NIIDA), Society for the Welfare of the Intellectually Disabled (SWID Bangladesh), Dhaka, Bangladesh
  • 114 Department of Psychology, University of Münster, Münster, Germany
  • 115 Department of Social Policy and Intervention, University of Oxford, Oxford, UK
  • 116 Department of Media and Communications, University of Sydney, Sydney, New South Wales, Australia
  • 117 Medical School, Department of Psychiatry, University of the Witwatersrand, Johannesburg, Republic of South Africa
  • 118 Department of Psychology, University of Waterloo, Waterloo, Ontario, Canada
  • 119 Department of Nursing, University of Huelva, Huelva, Spain
  • 120 Department of Psychology, University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill, Chapel Hill, NC, USA
  • 121 Department of Psychology and Neuroscience, College of Arts and Sciences, University of Colorado Boulder, Boulder, CO, USA
  • 122 Department of Experimental Psychology, University of Regensburg, Regensburg, Germany
  • 123 Kyiv School of Economics, Kyiv, Ukraine
  • 124 Department of Management and Engineering, Linköping University, Linköping, Sweden
  • 125 University of Helsinki, Helsinki, Finland
  • 126 Turner Institute for Brain and Mental Health, Monash University, Clayton, Victoria, Australia
  • 127 Department of Business and Media Psychology, Ansbach University of Applied Sciences, Ansbach, Germany
  • 128 Department of Marketing, Boston University, Questrom School of Business, Boston, MA, USA
  • 129 School of Psychology, Dublin City University, Dublin, Ireland
  • 130 Pontifical Xavierian University, Bogotá, Colombia
  • 131 Seele Neuroscience, Mexico City, Mexico
  • 132 COIDESO-Research Center of Contemporary Thinking and Innovation for Social Development, University of Huelva, Huelva, Spain
  • 133 School of Psychology, University of Auckland, Auckland, New Zealand
  • 134 Faculty of Economics, Maria Curie Sklodowska University, Lublin, Poland
  • 135 Department of Psychology, City University of New York (CUNY) Graduate Center, New York, NY, USA
  • 136 Department of Psychology, University of Alberta, Edmonton, Alberta, Canada
  • 137 Australian National Centre for the Public Awareness of Science,Australian National University, Canberra ACT, Australia
  • 138 Department of Psychology and Behavioral Sciences, Zhejiang University, Hangzhou, China
  • 139 Department for Political Behavior, Centre for Social Sciences, Budapest, Hungary
  • 140 Institute of Psychology, University of Silesia in Katowice, Katowice, Poland
  • 141 Department of Computer Science, University of Helsinki, Helsinki, Finland
  • 142 Department of Computer Science, Institute of Cognitive Science, University of Colorado Boulder, Boulder, CO, USA
  • 143 Centro de Ciências Biológicas e da Saúde,Mackenzie Presbyterian University, São Paul, Brazil
  • 144 Department of Psychology & Neural Science, New York University, New York, NY, USA
  • 145 Department of Biology, Biodiversity Unit, University of Turku, Turku, Finland
  • 146 School of Psychology, Environmental Psychology Department, National Autonomous University of Mexico, Mexico City, Mexico
  • 147 Department of Humanities and Life Sciences, University School for Advanced Studies, Pavia, Italy
  • 148 Department of Social Psychology, University of Amsterdam, Amsterdam, Netherlands
  • 149 Department of Global Economics and Management, University of Groningen, Groningen, Netherlands
  • 150 Department of Psychology, Carleton University, Ottawa, Ontario, Canada
  • 151 PLS, ENS-Ulm, Department d'Etudes Cognitives, Paris, France
  • 152 Social Psychology Department, University of Amsterdam, Amsterdam, Netherlands
  • 153 Institute of Cognitive Neuroscience, University College London, London, UK
  • 154 Department of Asian and International Studies, City University of Hong Kong, Kowloon Tong, Hong Kong
  • 155 Department of Psychology, Susquehanna University, Selinsgrove, PA, USA
  • 156 Department of Social Psychology, Friedrich Schiller University Jena, Jena, Germany
  • 157 Department of Design, University of Antwerp, Antwerp, Belgium
  • 158 Department of Behavioral Sciences and Learning, Linköping University, Linköping, Sweden
  • 159 Department of Psychology, University of Koblenz-Landau, Landau, Germany
  • 160 Department of Speech Pathology and Audiology, University of the Witwatersrand, Johannesburg, Republic of South Africa
  • 161 Institute of Psychology, Nicolaus Copernicus University, Torun, Poland
  • 162 Rady School of Management, University of California, San Diego, CA, USA
  • 163 Faculty of Arts and Science, Kyushu University, Fukuoka, Japan
  • 164 Department of Psychology, Kadir Has University, Fatih, Istanbul, Turkey
  • 165 Department of Communication and Media Use, Friedrich Schiller University Jena, Jena, Germany
  • 166 Department of Psychology, Erasmus University Rotterdam, Rotterdam, Netherlands
  • 167 Faculty of Negotiations, Organizations and Markets, Harvard Business School, Boston, MA, USA
  • 168 Department of Economics, Vidyasagar College For Women, Kolkata, West Bengal, India
  • 169 Department of Public Administration and Sociology, Erasmus University Rotterdam, Rotterdam, Netherlands
  • 170 Impact For Development, Casablanca, Morocco
  • 171 Department of Economics, Koc University, Sarıyer, Istanbul, Turkey
  • 172 Hult International Business School, Dubai, United Arab Emirates
  • 173 Department of International Trade, Bogazici University, Besiktas, Istanbul, Turkey
  • 174 Department of Psychological and Social Sciences, Penn State University Abington College, Abington, PA, USA
PNAS Nexus, 2022 Jul;1(3):pgac093.
PMID: 35990802 DOI: 10.1093/pnasnexus/pgac093

Abstract

At the beginning of 2020, COVID-19 became a global problem. Despite all the efforts to emphasize the relevance of preventive measures, not everyone adhered to them. Thus, learning more about the characteristics determining attitudinal and behavioral responses to the pandemic is crucial to improving future interventions. In this study, we applied machine learning on the multinational data collected by the International Collaboration on the Social and Moral Psychology of COVID-19 (N = 51,404) to test the predictive efficacy of constructs from social, moral, cognitive, and personality psychology, as well as socio-demographic factors, in the attitudinal and behavioral responses to the pandemic. The results point to several valuable insights. Internalized moral identity provided the most consistent predictive contribution-individuals perceiving moral traits as central to their self-concept reported higher adherence to preventive measures. Similar results were found for morality as cooperation, symbolized moral identity, self-control, open-mindedness, and collective narcissism, while the inverse relationship was evident for the endorsement of conspiracy theories. However, we also found a non-neglible variability in the explained variance and predictive contributions with respect to macro-level factors such as the pandemic stage or cultural region. Overall, the results underscore the importance of morality-related and contextual factors in understanding adherence to public health recommendations during the pandemic.

* Title and MeSH Headings from MEDLINE®/PubMed®, a database of the U.S. National Library of Medicine.

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