METHODS: An agent-based model (ABM) is a relatively new approach that provides a framework for analyzing the heterogeneity of the interactions, along with biological and environmental factors in such complex systems. The objective of this research is to design and develop an ABM that uses Geospatial Information System (GIS) capabilities, biological behaviors of vectors and reservoir hosts, and an improved Susceptible-Exposed-Infected-Recovered (SEIR) epidemic model to explore the spread of ZCL. Various scenarios were implemented to analyze the future ZCL spreads in different parts of Maraveh Tappeh County, in the northeast region of Golestan Province in northeastern Iran, with alternative socio-ecological conditions.
RESULTS: The results confirmed that the spread of the disease arises principally in the desert, low altitude areas, and riverside population centers. The outcomes also showed that the restricting movement of humans reduces the severity of the transmission. Moreover, the spread of ZCL has a particular temporal pattern, since the most prevalent cases occurred in the fall. The evaluation test also showed the similarity between the results and the reported spatiotemporal trends.
CONCLUSIONS: This study demonstrates the capability and efficiency of ABM to model and predict the spread of ZCL. The results of the presented approach can be considered as a guide for public health management and controlling the vector population .
METHODOLOGY/PRINCIPAL FINDINGS: This study was conducted to determine the molecular characterization of Leishmania species isolated from human cutaneous lesions in Yemen. Dermal scrapes were collected and examined for Leishmania amastigotes using the Giemsa staining technique. Amplification of the ribosomal internal transcribed spacer 1(ITS-1) gene was carried out using nested PCR and subsequent sequencing. The sequences from Leishmania isolates were subjected to phylogenetic analysis using the neighbor-joining and maximum parsimony methods. The trees identified Leishmania tropica from 16 isolates which were represented by two sequence types.
CONCLUSIONS/SIGNIFICANCE: The predominance of the anthroponotic species (i.e. L. tropica) indicates the probability of anthroponotic transmission of cutaneous leishmaniasis in Yemen. These findings will help public health authorities to build an effective control strategy taking into consideration person-to-person transmission as the main dynamic of transmission of CL.