METHODS: This is a prospective cross-sectional study of all injured motorcyclists and pillion riders that were admitted to Hospital Sultanah Aminah and treated by the trauma surgery team from May 2011 to February 2015. Only injured motorcyclists and pillion riders were included in this study. Patient demography and predictors leading to mortality were identified. Significant predictors on univariate analysis were further analysed with multivariate analysis.
RESULTS: We included 1653 patients with a mean age of (35 ± 16.17) years that were treated for traumatic injuries due to motorcycle accidents. The mortality rate was 8.6% (142) with equal amount of motorcycle riders (788) and pillion riders (865) that were injured. Amongst the injured were male predominant (1 537) and majority of ethnic groups were the Malays (897) and Chinese (350). Severity of injury was reflected with a mean Revised Trauma Score (RTS) of 7.31 ± 1.29, New Injury Severity Score (NISS) of 19.84 ± 13.84 and Trauma and Injury Severity Score (TRISS) of 0.91 ± 0.15. Univariate and multivariate analysis revealed that age≥35, lower GCS, head injuries, chest injuries, liver injuries, and small bowel injuries were significant predictors of motorcycle trauma related deaths with p
METHODOLOGY: This study was conducted using daily confirmed cases of COVID-19 collected from the official Ministry of Health, Malaysia (MOH) and John Hopkins University websites. An Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) model was fitted to the training data of observed cases from 22 January to 31 March 2020, and subsequently validated using data on cases from 1 April to 17 April 2020. The ARIMA model satisfactorily forecasted the daily confirmed COVID-19 cases from 18 April 2020 to 1 May 2020 (the testing phase).
RESULTS: The ARIMA (0,1,0) model produced the best fit to the observed data with a Mean Absolute Percentage Error (MAPE) value of 16.01 and a Bayes Information Criteria (BIC) value of 4.170. The forecasted values showed a downward trend of COVID-19 cases until 1 May 2020. Observed cases during the forecast period were accurately predicted and were placed within the prediction intervals generated by the fitted model.
CONCLUSIONS: This study finds that ARIMA models with optimally selected covariates are useful tools for monitoring and predicting trends of COVID-19 cases in Malaysia.
METHODS: Literature and government documents were reviewed and analyzed by authors with experiences in HTA and drug policy in the country.
RESULTS: The structure of HTA and its process in the drug selection of the NLEM were described, followed by the outcomes of the use of HTA. Examples of lowering drug prices, as a result of price negotiation using HTA, were presented. A few examples were also provided to demonstrate how decisions were made from considering factors beyond cost-effectiveness findings. Finally, challenges on various issues including improvement of HTA structure and process were discussed for the future direction of HTA in Thailand.
CONCLUSIONS: HTA has been adopted as a tool for the drug selection of the NLEM to help Thailand achieve universal health coverage. Nevertheless, various challenges exist and need to be addressed.
METHODS: This is a retrospective study of confirmed leptospirosis cases in Larut, Matang and Selama (LMS) district in Perak reported in 2016. The demographic, clinical presentation, laboratory result and clinical outcomes data were analysed and presented.
RESULTS: Forty-two patients with confirmed diagnosis of leptospirosis were included into the study. Majority of patients were males and Malays. The case fatality rate was 14.3%. Patients with leptospirosis present with variable clinical presentations and are commonly seen with coinfection. Patients 70-year-old and older, have clinical presentations suggestive of organ dysfunction and require intensive care are associated with higher mortality.
CONCLUSION: Leptospirosis is endemic in LMS district of Perak with high incidence and case fatality rate. The clinical presentation of leptospirosis is variable. Co-infection of leptospirosis with other acute febrile illness is common. Patients presenting with symptoms and signs of organ dysfunctions or require intensive care are associated with an increased odds of death.
OBJECTIVE: To assist with achieving these goals and to inform the development of a national strategic plan for Malaysia, we estimated the long-term burden incurred by the care and management of patients with chronic hepatitis C virus (HCV) infection. We compared cumulative healthcare costs and disease burden under different treatment cascade scenarios.
METHODS: We attached direct costs for the management/care of chronically HCV-infected patients to a previously developed clinical disease progression model. Under assumptions regarding disease stage-specific proportions of model-predicted HCV patients within care, annual numbers of patients initiated on antiviral treatment and distribution of treatments over stage, we projected the healthcare costs and disease burden [in disability-adjusted life-years (DALY)] in 2018-2040 under four treatment scenarios: (A) no treatment/baseline; (B) pre-2018 standard of care (pegylated interferon/ribavirin); (C) gradual scale-up in direct-acting antiviral (DAA) treatment uptake that does not meet the WHO 2030 treatment uptake target; (D) scale-up in DAA treatment uptake that meets the WHO 2030 target.
RESULTS: Scenario D, while achieving the WHO 2030 target and averting 253,500 DALYs compared with the pre-2018 standard of care B, incurred the highest direct patient costs over the period 2018-2030: US$890 million (95% uncertainty interval 653-1271). When including screening programme costs, the total cost was estimated at US$952 million, which was 12% higher than the estimated total cost of scenario C.
CONCLUSIONS: The scale-up to meet the WHO 2030 target may be achievable with appropriately high governmental commitment to the expansion of HCV screening to bring sufficient undiagnosed chronically infected patients into the treatment pathway.