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Predicting the environmental suitability for onchocerciasis in Africa as an aid to elimination planning

Cromwell EA 1 , Osborne JCP 1 , Unnasch TR 2 , Basáñez MG 3 , Gass KM 4 , Barbre KA 4 Show all authors , Hill E 1 , Johnson KB 1 , Donkers KM 1 , Shirude S 1 , Schmidt CA 1 , Adekanmbi V 5 , Adetokunboh OO 6 , Afarideh M 7 , Ahmadpour E 8 , Ahmed MB 9 , Akalu TY 10 , Al-Aly Z 11 , Alanezi FM 12 , Alanzi TM 13 , Alipour V 14 , Andrei CL 15 , Ansari F 16 , Ansha MG 17 , Anvari D 18 , Appiah SCY 19 , Arabloo J 14 , Arnold BF 20 , Ausloos M 21 , Ayanore MA 22 , Baig AA 23 , Banach M 24 , Barac A 25 , Bärnighausen TW 26 , Bayati M 27 , Bhattacharyya K 28 , Bhutta ZA 29 , Bibi S 30 , Bijani A 31 , Bohlouli S 32 , Bohluli M 33 , Brady OJ 34 , Bragazzi NL 35 , Butt ZA 36 , Carvalho F 37 , Chatterjee S 38 , Chattu VK 39 , Chattu SK 40 , Cormier NM 1 , Dahlawi SMA 41 , Damiani G 42 , Daoud F 1 , Darwesh AM 43 , Daryani A 44 , Deribe K 45 , Dharmaratne SD 1 , Diaz D 46 , Do HT 47 , El Sayed Zaki M 48 , El Tantawi M 49 , Elemineh DA 50 , Faraj A 51 , Fasihi Harandi M 52 , Fatahi Y 53 , Feigin VL 1 , Fernandes E 54 , Foigt NA 55 , Foroutan M 56 , Franklin RC 57 , Gubari MIM 58 , Guido D 59 , Guo Y 60 , Haj-Mirzaian A 61 , Hamagharib Abdullah K 62 , Hamidi S 63 , Herteliu C 64 , Hidru HD 65 , Higazi TB 66 , Hossain N 67 , Hosseinzadeh M 68 , Househ M 69 , Ilesanmi OS 70 , Ilic MD 71 , Ilic IM 72 , Iqbal U 73 , Irvani SSN 74 , Jha RP 75 , Joukar F 76 , Jozwiak JJ 77 , Kabir Z 78 , Kalankesh LR 79 , Kalhor R 80 , Karami Matin B 81 , Karimi SE 82 , Kasaeian A 83 , Kavetskyy T 84 , Kayode GA 85 , Kazemi Karyani A 81 , Kelbore AG 86 , Keramati M 87 , Khalilov R 88 , Khan EA 89 , Khan MNN 90 , Khatab K 91 , Khater MM 92 , Kianipour N 93 , Kibret KT 94 , Kim YJ 95 , Kosen S 96 , Krohn KJ 1 , Kusuma D 97 , La Vecchia C 98 , Lansingh VC 99 , Lee PH 100 , LeGrand KE 1 , Li S 101 , Longbottom J 102 , Magdy Abd El Razek H 103 , Magdy Abd El Razek M 104 , Maleki A 105 , Mamun AA 106 , Manafi A 107 , Manafi N 108 , Mansournia MA 109 , Martins-Melo FR 110 , Mazidi M 111 , McAlinden C 112 , Meharie BG 113 , Mendoza W 114 , Mengesha EW 115 , Mengistu DT 116 , Mereta ST 117 , Mestrovic T 118 , Miller TR 119 , Miri M 120 , Moghadaszadeh M 121 , Mohammadian-Hafshejani A 122 , Mohammadpourhodki R 123 , Mohammed S 26 , Mohammed S 124 , Moradi M 81 , Moradzadeh R 125 , Moraga P 126 , Mosser JF 1 , Naderi M 127 , Nagarajan AJ 128 , Naik G 129 , Negoi I 130 , Nguyen CT 131 , Nguyen HLT 131 , Nguyen TH 132 , Nikbakhsh R 133 , Oancea B 134 , Olagunju TO 135 , Olagunju AT 136 , Omar Bali A 137 , Onwujekwe OE 138 , Pana A 64 , Pourjafar H 139 , Rahim F 140 , Rahman MHU 141 , Rathi P 142 , Rawaf S 143 , Rawaf DL 144 , Rawassizadeh R 145 , Resnikoff S 146 , Reta MA 147 , Rezapour A 14 , Rubagotti E 148 , Rubino S 149 , Sadeghi E 81 , Saghafipour A 150 , Sajadi SM 151 , Samy AM 152 , Sarmiento-Suárez R 153 , Sawhney M 154 , Schipp MF 1 , Shaheen AA 155 , Shaikh MA 156 , Shamsizadeh M 157 , Sharafi K 81 , Sheikh A 158 , Shetty BSK 159 , Shin JI 160 , Shivakumar KM 161 , Simonetti B 162 , Singh JA 163 , Skiadaresi E 164 , Soheili A 165 , Soltani S 81 , Spurlock EE 1 , Sufiyan MB 166 , Tabuchi T 167 , Tapak L 168 , Thompson RL 1 , Thomson AJ 169 , Traini E 170 , Tran BX 171 , Ullah I 172 , Ullah S 30 , Uneke CJ 173 , Unnikrishnan B 174 , Uthman OA 175 , Vinkeles Melchers NVS 176 , Violante FS 177 , Wolde HF 10 , Wonde TE 178 , Yamada T 179 , Yaya S 180 , Yazdi-Feyzabadi V 181 , Yip P 182 , Yonemoto N 183 , Yousof HSA 92 , Yu C 184 , Yu Y 185 , Yusefzadeh H 186 , Zaki L 187 , Zaman SB 188 , Zamanian M 125 , Zhang ZJ 189 , Zhang Y 190 , Ziapour A 191 , Hay SI 1 , Pigott DM 1

Affiliations 

  • 1 Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation, University of Washington, Seattle, Washington, United States of America
  • 2 GlobalHealth Infectious Disease, University of South Florida, Tampa, Florida, United States of America
  • 3 London Centre for Neglected Tropical Disease Research (LCNTDR), Imperial College London, London, United Kingdom
  • 4 Neglected Tropical Diseases Support Center, Task Force for Global Health, Decatur, Georgia, United States of America
  • 5 Population Health Sciences, King's College London, London, England
  • 6 Centre of Excellence for Epidemiological Modelling and Analysis, Stellenbosch University, Stellenbosch, South Africa
  • 7 Department of Dermatology, Mayo Clinic, Rochester, Minnesota, United States of America
  • 8 Infectious and Tropical Diseases Research Center, Tabriz University of Medical Sciences, Tabriz, Iran
  • 9 Department of Epidemiology, Jimma University, Jimma, Ethiopia
  • 10 Department of Epidemiology and Biostatistics, University of Gondar, Gondar, Ethiopia
  • 11 John T. Milliken Department of Internal Medicine, Washington University in St. Louis, St. Louis, Montana, United States of America
  • 12 Imam Abdulrahman Bin Faisal University, Dammam, Saudi Arabia
  • 13 Health Information Management and Technology Department, Imam Abdulrahman Bin Faisal University, Dammam, Saudi Arabia
  • 14 Health Management and Economics Research Center, Iran University of Medical Sciences, Tehran, Iran
  • 15 Cardiology Department, Carol Davila University of Medicine and Pharmacy, Bucharest, Romania
  • 16 Research Center for Evidence Based Medicine, Tabriz University of Medical Sciences, Tabriz, Iran
  • 17 Department of Public Health, Debre Berhan University, Debre Berhan, Ethiopia
  • 18 Department of Parasitology, Mazandaran University of Medical Sciences, Sari, Iran
  • 19 Department of Sociology and Social Work, Kwame Nkrumah University of Science and Technology, Kumasi, Ghana
  • 20 Department of Ophthalmology, University of California San Francisco, San Francisco, California, United States of America
  • 21 School of Business, University of Leicester, Leicester, United Kingdom
  • 22 Department of Health Policy Planning and Management, University of Health and Allied Sciences, Ho, Ghana
  • 23 Unit of Biochemistry, Sultan Zainal Abidin University (Universiti Sultan Zainal Abidin), Kuala Terengganu, Malaysia
  • 24 Department of Hypertension, Medical University of Lodz, Lodz, Poland
  • 25 Clinic for Infectious and Tropical Diseases, Clinical Center of Serbia, Belgrade, Serbia
  • 26 Heidelberg Institute of Global Health (HIGH), Heidelberg University, Heidelberg, Germany
  • 27 Health Human Resources Research Center, Shiraz University of Medical Sciences, Shiraz, Iran
  • 28 Department of Statistical and Computational Genomics, National Institute of Biomedical Genomics, Kalyani, India
  • 29 Centre for Global Child Health, University of Toronto, Toronto, Ontario, Canada
  • 30 Institute of Soil and Environmental Sciences, University of Agriculture-Faisalabad, Faisalabad, Pakistan
  • 31 Social Determinants of Health Research Center, Babol University of Medical Sciences, Babol, Iran
  • 32 Department of Veterinary Medicine, Islamic Azad University, Kermanshah, Iran
  • 33 Department of Computer Science and Information Technology, Institute for Advanced Studies in Basic Sciences, Zanjan, Iran
  • 34 Department of Infectious Disease Epidemiology, London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine, London, United Kingdom
  • 35 University of Genoa, Genoa, Italy
  • 36 School of Public Health and Health Systems, University of Waterloo, Waterloo, Ontario, Canada
  • 37 Research Unit on Applied Molecular Biosciences (UCIBIO), University of Porto, Porto, Portugal
  • 38 Department of Microbiology & Infection Control, Medanta Medicity, Gurugram, India
  • 39 Department of Medicine, University of Toronto, Toronto, Ontario, Canada
  • 40 Department of Public Health, Texila American University, Georgetown, Guyana
  • 41 Environmental Health Department, Imam Abdulrahman Bin Faisal University, Dammam, Saudi Arabia
  • 42 Clinical Dermatology, IRCCS Istituto Ortopedico Galeazzi, University of Milan, Milan, Italy
  • 43 Department of Information Technology, University of Human Development, Sulaymaniyah, Iraq
  • 44 Toxoplasmosis Research Center, Mazandaran University of Medical Sciences, Sari, Iran
  • 45 Wellcome Trust Brighton and Sussex Centre for Global Health Research, Brighton and Sussex Medical School, Brighton, United Kingdom
  • 46 Center of Complexity Sciences, National Autonomous University of Mexico, Mexico City, Mexico
  • 47 Institute of Health Economics and Technology, Hanoi, Vietnam
  • 48 Reference Laboratory of Egyptian Universities Hospitals, Ministry of Higher Education and Research, Cairo, Egypt
  • 49 Pediatric Dentistry and Dental Public Health Department, Alexandria University, Alexandria, Egypt
  • 50 Department of Statistics, Debre Markos University, Debre Markos, Ethiopia
  • 51 Department of Political Science, University of Human Development, Sulaimaniyah, Iraq
  • 52 Department of Medical Parasitology, Kerman University of Medical Sciences, Kerman, Iran
  • 53 Nanotechnology Research Center, Tehran University of Medical Sciences, Tehran, Iran
  • 54 Associated Laboratory for Green Chemistry (LAQV), University of Porto, Porto, Portugal
  • 55 Institute of Gerontology, National Academy of Medical Sciences of Ukraine, Kyiv, Ukraine
  • 56 Department of Medical Parasitology, Abadan Faculty of Medical Sciences, Abadan, Iran
  • 57 School of Public Health, Medical, and Veterinary Sciences, James Cook University, Douglas, Queensland, Australia
  • 58 Department of Family and Community Medicine, University Of Sulaimani, Sulaimani, Iraq
  • 59 Neurology, Public Health and Disability Unit, Carlo Besta Neurological Institute IRCCS (Fondazione IRCCS Istituto Neurologico Carlo Besta), Milan, Italy
  • 60 Department of Epidemiology and Preventive Medicine, Monash University, Melbourne, Victoria, Australia
  • 61 Department of Pharmacology, Tehran University of Medical Sciences, Tehran, Iran
  • 62 College of Law and Political Science, University of Human Development, Sulaimaniyah, Iraq
  • 63 School of Health and Environmental Studies, Hamdan Bin Mohammed Smart University, Dubai, United Arab Emirates
  • 64 Department of Statistics and Econometrics, Bucharest University of Economic Studies, Bucharest, Romania
  • 65 Department of Public Health, Adigrat University, Adigrat, Ethiopia
  • 66 Department of Biological Sciences, Ohio University, Zanesville, Ontario, United States of America
  • 67 Department of Pharmacology, Bangladesh Industrial Gases Limited, Tangail, Bangladesh
  • 68 Institute of Research and Development, Duy Tan University, Da Nang, Vietnam
  • 69 College of Science and Engineering, Hamad Bin Khalifa University, Doha, Qatar
  • 70 Department of Community Medicine, University of Ibadan, Ibadan, Nigeria
  • 71 Department of Epidemiology, University of Kragujevac, Kragujevac, Serbia
  • 72 Faculty of Medicine, University of Belgrade, Belgrade, Serbia
  • 73 College of Public Health, Taipei Medical University, Taipei, Taiwan
  • 74 Research Institute for Endocrine Sciences, Shahid Beheshti University of Medical Sciences, Tehran, Ira
  • 75 Department of Community Medicine, Dr. Baba Saheb Ambedkar Medical College & Hospital, Delhi, India
  • 76 Gastrointestinal and Liver Diseases Research Center, Guilan University of Medical Sciences, Rasht, Iran
  • 77 Department of Family Medicine and Public Health, University of Opole, Opole, Poland
  • 78 School of Public Health, University College Cork, Cork, Ireland
  • 79 School of Management and Medical Informatics, Tabriz University of Medical Sciences, Tabriz, Iran
  • 80 Institute for Prevention of Non-communicable Diseases, Qazvin University of Medical Sciences, Qazvin, Iran
  • 81 Research Center for Environmental Determinants of Health, Kermanshah University of Medical Sciences, Kermanshah, Iran
  • 82 Social Determinants of Health Research Center, Tabriz University of Medical Sciences, Tabriz, Iran
  • 83 Pars Advanced and Minimally Invasive Medical Manners Research Center, Iran University of Medical Sciences, Tehran, Iran
  • 84 Department of Applied Physics, The John Paul II Catholic University of Lublin, Lublin Voivodeship, Poland
  • 85 International Research Center of Excellence, Institute of Human Virology Nigeria, Abuja, Nigeria
  • 86 Department of Dermatology, Wolaita Sodo University, Wolaita Sodo, Ethiopia
  • 87 Mashhad University of Medical Sciences, Mashhad, Iran
  • 88 Department of Biophysics and Molecular Biology, Baku State University, Baku, Azerbaijan
  • 89 Department of Epidemiology and Biostatistics, Health Services Academy, Islamabad, Pakistan
  • 90 Department of Population Sciences, Jatiya Kabi Kazi Nazrul Islam University, Mymensingh, Bangladesh
  • 91 Faculty of Health and Wellbeing, Sheffield Hallam University, Sheffield, United Kingdom
  • 92 Department of Medical Parasitology, Cairo University, Cairo, Egypt
  • 93 Department of Public Health, Kermanshah University of Medical Sciences, Kermanshah, Iran
  • 94 Wollega University, Nekemte, Ethiopia
  • 95 School of Traditional Chinese Medicine, Xiamen University Malaysia, Sepang, Malaysia
  • 96 Independent Consultant, Jakarta, Indonesia
  • 97 Imperial College Business School, Imperial College London, London, United Kingdom
  • 98 Department of Clinical Sciences and Community Health, University of Milan, Milan, Italy
  • 99 Medical Director, HelpMeSee, New York, New York, United States of America
  • 100 School of Nursing, Hong Kong Polytechnic University, Hong Kong, China
  • 101 School of Public Health and Preventive Medicine, Monash University, Melbourne, Victoria, Australia
  • 102 Department of Vector Biology, Liverpool School of Tropical Medicine, Liverpool, United Kingdom
  • 103 Radiology Department, Egypt Ministry of Health and Population, Mansoura, Egypt
  • 104 Ophthalmology Department, Ministry of Health & Population, Aswan, Egypt
  • 105 Environmental Health, Tehran University of Medical Sciences, Tehran, Iran
  • 106 Institute for Social Science Research, The University of Queensland, Indooroopilly, Queensland, Australia
  • 107 Plastic Surgery Department, Iran University of Medical Sciences, Tehran, Iran
  • 108 School of Medicine, Iran University of Medical Sciences, Tehran, Iran
  • 109 Department of Epidemiology and Biostatistics, Tehran University of Medical Sciences, Tehran, Iran
  • 110 Campus Caucaia, Federal Institute of Education, Science and Technology of Ceará, Caucaia, Brazil
  • 111 Department of Twin Research and Genetic Epidemiology, King's College London, London, United Kingdom
  • 112 Department of Ophthalmology, Singleton Hospital, Swansea, United Kingdom
  • 113 Department of Pharmacy, Wollo University, Dessie, Ethiopia
  • 114 Peru Country Office, United Nations Population Fund (UNFPA), Lima, Peru
  • 115 Department of Reproductive Health and Population Studies, Bahir Dar University, Bahir Dar, Ethiopia
  • 116 School of Medicine, Mekelle University, Mekelle, Ethiopia
  • 117 Department of Environmental Health Sciences and Technology, Jimma University, Jimma, Ethiopia
  • 118 Clinical Microbiology and Parasitology Unit, Dr. Zora Profozic Polyclinic, Zagreb, Croatia
  • 119 Pacific Institute for Research & Evaluation, Calverton, Maryland, United States of America
  • 120 Department of Environmental Health, Sabzevar University of Medical Sciences, Sabzevar, Iran
  • 121 Biotechnology Research Center, Tabriz University of Medical Sciences, Tabriz, Iran
  • 122 Department of Epidemiology and Biostatistics, Shahrekord University of Medical Sciences, Shahrekord, Iran
  • 123 Kashmar Center of Higher Health Education, Mashhad University of Medical Sciences, Mashhad, Iran
  • 124 Department of Biomolecular Sciences, University of Mississippi, Oxford, Mississippi, United States of America
  • 125 Department of Epidemiology, Arak University of Medical Sciences, Arak, Iran
  • 126 Computer, Electrical, and Mathematical Sciences and Engineering Division, King Abdullah University of Science and Technology, Thuwal, Saudi Arabia
  • 127 Clinical Research Development Center, Kermanshah University of Medical Sciences, Kermanshah, Iran
  • 128 Research and Analytics Department, Initiative for Financing Health and Human Development, Chennai, India
  • 129 Comprehensive Cancer Center, University of Alabama at Birmingham, Birmingham, Alabama, United States of America
  • 130 Department of General Surgery, Carol Davila University of Medicine and Pharmacy, Bucharest, Romania
  • 131 Institute for Global Health Innovations, Duy Tan University, Hanoi, Vietnam
  • 132 Center of Excellence in Behavioral Medicine, Nguyen Tat Thanh University, Ho Chi Minh City, Vietnam
  • 133 Obesity Research Center, Shahid Beheshti University of Medical Sciences, Tehran, Iran
  • 134 Administrative and Economic Sciences Department, University of Bucharest, Bucharest, Romania
  • 135 Department of Pathology and Molecular Medicine, McMaster University, Hamilton, Ontario, Canada
  • 136 Department of Psychiatry and Behavioural Neurosciences, McMaster University, Hamilton, Ontario, Canada
  • 137 Diplomacy and Public Relations Department, University of Human Development, Sulaimaniyah, Iraq
  • 138 Department of Pharmacology and Therapeutics, University of Nigeria Nsukka, Enugu, Nigeria
  • 139 Department of Nutrition and Food Sciences, Maragheh University of Medical Sciences, Maragheh, Iran
  • 140 Thalassemia and Hemoglobinopathy Research Center, Ahvaz Jundishapur University of Medical Sciences, Ahvaz, Iran
  • 141 Department of Community Medicine, Maharishi Markandeshwar Medical College & Hospital, Solan, India
  • 142 Kasturba Medical College, Mangalore, Manipal Academy of Higher Education, Manipal, India
  • 143 Department of Primary Care and Public Health, Imperial College London, London, United Kingdom
  • 144 WHO Collaborating Centre for Public Health Education and Training, Imperial College London, London, United Kingdom
  • 145 Department of Computer Science, Boston University, Boston, Massachusetts, United States of America
  • 146 School of Optometry and Vision Science, University of New South Wales, Sydney, New South Wales, Australia
  • 147 Department of Medical Laboratory Science, Woldia University, Woldia, Ethiopia
  • 148 Center for Research in Congenital Anomalies and Rare Diseases, ICESI University (Centro de Investigaciones en Anomalías Congénitas y Enfermedades Raras, Universidad Icesi), Cali, Colombia
  • 149 Department of Biomedical Sciences, University of Sassari, Sassari, Italy
  • 150 Public Health, Ministry of Health and Medical Education, Qom, Iran
  • 151 Department of Phytochemistry, Soran University, Soran, Iraq
  • 152 Department of Entomology, Ain Shams University, Cairo, Egypt
  • 153 Department of Health and Society, Faculty of Medicine, University of Applied and Environmental Sciences, Bogota, Colombia
  • 154 Department of Public Health Sciences, University of North Carolina at Charlotte, Charlotte, North Carolina, United States of America
  • 155 Public Health Division, An-Najah National University, Nablus, Palestine
  • 156 Independent Consultant, Karachi, Pakistan
  • 157 Faculty of Caring Science, Work Life, and Social Welfare, Faculty of Caring Science, Work Life and Social Welfare, University of Borås, Borås, Sweden, Borås, Sweden
  • 158 Centre for Medical Informatics, University of Edinburgh, Edinburgh, United Kingdom
  • 159 Department of Forensic Medicine and Toxicology, Manipal Academy of Higher Education, Mangalore, India
  • 160 College of Medicine, Yonsei University, Seoul, South Korea
  • 161 Public Health Dentistry Department, Krishna Institute of Medical Sciences Deemed to be University, Karad, India
  • 162 Department of Law, Economics, Management and Quantitative Methods, University of Sannio, Benevento, Italy
  • 163 School of Medicine, University of Alabama at Birmingham, Birmingham, Alabama, United States of America
  • 164 Department of Ophthalmology, Hywel Dda University Health Board, Llanelli, United Kingdom
  • 165 Nursing Care Research Center, Semnan University of Medical Sciences, Semnan, Iran
  • 166 Department of Community Medicine, Ahmadu Bello University, Zaria, Nigeria
  • 167 Cancer Control Center, Osaka International Cancer Institute, Osaka, Japan
  • 168 Department of Biostatistics, Hamadan University of Medical Sciences, Hamadan, Iran
  • 169 Department of Global Health Research, Adaptive Knowledge Management, Victoria, British Columbia, Canada
  • 170 Institute for Risk Assessment Sciences (IRAS), Utrecht University, Utrecht, Netherlands
  • 171 Department of Health Economics, Hanoi Medical University, Hanoi, Vietnam
  • 172 Department of Allied Health Sciences, Iqra National University, Peshawar, Pakistan
  • 173 Department of Medical Microbiology/Parasitology, Ebonyi State University, Abakaliki, Nigeria
  • 174 Kasturba Medical College, Manipal Academy of Higher Education, Mangalore, India
  • 175 Division of Health Sciences, University of Warwick, Coventry, United Kingdom
  • 176 Control of Infectious Diseases, Erasmus University Medical Center, Rotterdam, Netherlands
  • 177 Department of Medical and Surgical Sciences, University of Bologna, Bologna, Italy
  • 178 Department of Public Health, Debre Markos University, Debre Markos, Ethiopia
  • 179 Department of Diabetes and Metabolic Diseases, University of Tokyo, Tokyo, Japan
  • 180 School of International Development and Global Studies, University of Ottawa, Ottawa, Ontario, Canada
  • 181 Health Services Management Research Center, Kerman University of Medical Sciences, Kerman, Iran
  • 182 Centre for Suicide Research and Prevention, University of Hong Kong, Hong Kong, China
  • 183 Department of Neuropsychopharmacology, National Center of Neurology and Psychiatry, Kodaira, Japan
  • 184 Department of Epidemiology and Biostatistics, Wuhan University, Wuhan, China
  • 185 School of Public Health and Management, Hubei University of Medicine, Shiyan, China
  • 186 Department of Health care Management and Economics, Urmia University of Medical Science, Urmia, Iran
  • 187 Department of Parasitology and Entomology, Tarbiat Modares University, Tehran, Iran
  • 188 The School of Clinical Sciences at Monash Health, Monash University, Melbourne, Victoria, Australia
  • 189 School of Medicine, Wuhan University, Wuhan, China
  • 190 School of Public Health, Wuhan University of Science and Technology, Wuhan, China
  • 191 Department of Health Education and Health Promotion, Kermanshah University of Medical Sciences, Kermanshah, Iran
PLoS Negl Trop Dis, 2021 07;15(7):e0008824.
PMID: 34319976 DOI: 10.1371/journal.pntd.0008824

Abstract

Recent evidence suggests that, in some foci, elimination of onchocerciasis from Africa may be feasible with mass drug administration (MDA) of ivermectin. To achieve continental elimination of transmission, mapping surveys will need to be conducted across all implementation units (IUs) for which endemicity status is currently unknown. Using boosted regression tree models with optimised hyperparameter selection, we estimated environmental suitability for onchocerciasis at the 5 × 5-km resolution across Africa. In order to classify IUs that include locations that are environmentally suitable, we used receiver operating characteristic (ROC) analysis to identify an optimal threshold for suitability concordant with locations where onchocerciasis has been previously detected. This threshold value was then used to classify IUs (more suitable or less suitable) based on the location within the IU with the largest mean prediction. Mean estimates of environmental suitability suggest large areas across West and Central Africa, as well as focal areas of East Africa, are suitable for onchocerciasis transmission, consistent with the presence of current control and elimination of transmission efforts. The ROC analysis identified a mean environmental suitability index of 0·71 as a threshold to classify based on the location with the largest mean prediction within the IU. Of the IUs considered for mapping surveys, 50·2% exceed this threshold for suitability in at least one 5 × 5-km location. The formidable scale of data collection required to map onchocerciasis endemicity across the African continent presents an opportunity to use spatial data to identify areas likely to be suitable for onchocerciasis transmission. National onchocerciasis elimination programmes may wish to consider prioritising these IUs for mapping surveys as human resources, laboratory capacity, and programmatic schedules may constrain survey implementation, and possibly delaying MDA initiation in areas that would ultimately qualify.

* Title and MeSH Headings from MEDLINE®/PubMed®, a database of the U.S. National Library of Medicine.

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