METHODS: We developed a linear optimisation model to estimate efficiency gains that could be achieved based on current procurement of OAT. We also developed a dynamic, compartmental population model of HIV transmission that included both injection and sexual risk to estimate the effect of OAT scale-up on HIV infections and mortality over a 10-year horizon. The compartmental population model was calibrated to HIV prevalence and incidence among PWID for 23 administrative regions of Ukraine. Sources for regional data included the SyrEx database, the Integrated Biological and Behavioral Survey, the Ukrainian Center for Socially Dangerous Disease Control of the Ministry of Health of Ukraine, the Public Health Center of the Ministry of Health of Ukraine, and the Ukrainian Census.
FINDINGS: Under a status-quo scenario (OAT coverage of 2·7% among PWID), the number of new HIV infections among PWID in Ukraine over the next 10 years was projected to increase to 58 820 (95% CI 47 968-65 535), with striking regional differences. With optimum allocation of OAT without additional increases in procurement, OAT coverage could increase from 2·7% to 3·3% by increasing OAT doses to ensure higher retention levels. OAT scale-up to 10% and 20% over 10 years would, respectively, prevent 4368 (95% CI 3134-5243) and 10 864 (7787-13 038) new HIV infections and reduce deaths by 7096 (95% CI 5078-9160) and 17 863 (12 828-23 062), relative to the status quo. OAT expansion to 20% in five regions of Ukraine with the highest HIV burden would account for 56% of new HIV infections and 49% of deaths prevented over 10 years.
INTERPRETATION: To optimise HIV prevention and treatment goals in Ukraine, OAT must be substantially scaled up in all regions. Increased medication procurement is needed, combined with optimisation of OAT dosing. Restricting OAT scale-up to some regions of Ukraine could benefit many PWID, but the regions most affected are not necessarily those with the highest HIV burden.
FUNDING: National Institute on Drug Abuse.
OBJECTIVE: The aim of this study was to determine and evaluate the trajectory of surgical wound pain from day 1 to day 14 after posterior spinal fusion (PSF) surgery in patients with adolescent idiopathic scoliosis (AIS).
SUMMARY OF BACKGROUND DATA: Information regarding how the postoperative pain improves with time offers invaluable information not only to the patients and parents but also to assist the clinician in managing postoperative pain.
METHODS: AIS patients who were planned for elective PSF surgery from September 2015 to December 2015 were prospectively recruited into this study. All patients underwent a similar pain management regimen with patient-controlled anesthesia (PCA) morphine, acetaminophen, celecoxib, and oxycodone hydrochloride.
RESULTS: A total of 40 patients (36 F:4 M) were recruited. The visual analogue score (VAS) pain score was highest at 12 hours postoperation (6.0 ± 2.3). It reduced to 3.9 ± 2.2 (day 4), 1.9 ± 1.6 (day 7), and 0.7 ± 1.1 (day 14). The total PCA usage in all patients was 12.4 ± 9.9 mg (first 12 hours), 7.1 ± 8.0 mg (12 to 24 hours), 5.6 ± 6.9 (24-36 hours), and 2.1 ± 6.1 mg (36-48 hours). The celecoxib capsules usage was reducing from 215.0 ± 152.8 mg at 24 hours to 55.0 ± 90.4 mg on day 14. The acetaminophen usage was reducing from 2275 ± 1198 mg at 24 hours to 150 ± 483 mg at day 14. Oxycodone hydrochloride capsules consumption rose to the peak of 1.4 ± 2.8 mg on day 4 before gradually reducing to none by day 13.
CONCLUSION: With an adequate postoperation pain regimen, significant pain should subside to a tolerable level by postoperative day 4 and negligible by postoperative day 7. Patient usually can be discharged on postoperative day 4 when the usage of PCA morphine was not required.
LEVEL OF EVIDENCE: 2.