Objective: To examine associations between maternal gestational CVH and offspring CVH.

Design, Setting, and Participants: This cohort study used data from the Hyperglycemia and Adverse Pregnancy Outcome (HAPO) Study (examinations: July 2000-April 2006) and HAPO Follow-Up Study (examinations: February 2013-December 2016). The analyses included 2302 mother-child dyads, comprising 48% of HAPO Follow-Up Study participants, in an ancillary CVH study. Participants were from 9 field centers across the United States, Barbados, United Kingdom, China, Thailand, and Canada.

Exposures: Maternal gestational CVH at a target of 28 weeks' gestation, based on 5 metrics: body mass index, blood pressure, total cholesterol level, glucose level, and smoking. Each metric was categorized as ideal, intermediate, or poor using pregnancy guidelines. Total CVH was categorized as follows: all ideal metrics, 1 or more intermediate (but 0 poor) metrics, 1 poor metric, or 2 or more poor metrics.

Main Outcomes and Measures: Offspring CVH at ages 10 to 14 years, based on 4 metrics: body mass index, blood pressure, total cholesterol level, and glucose level. Total CVH was categorized as for mothers.

Results: Among 2302 dyads, the mean (SD) ages were 29.6 (2.7) years for pregnant mothers and 11.3 (1.1) years for children. During pregnancy, the mean (SD) maternal CVH score was 8.6 (1.4) out of 10. Among pregnant mothers, the prevalence of all ideal metrics was 32.8% (95% CI, 30.6%-35.1%), 31.7% (95% CI, 29.4%-34.0%) for 1 or more intermediate metrics, 29.5% (95% CI, 27.2%-31.7%) for 1 poor metric, and 6.0% (95% CI, 3.8%-8.3%) for 2 or more poor metrics. Among children of mothers with all ideal metrics, the prevalence of all ideal metrics was 42.2% (95% CI, 38.4%-46.2%), 36.7% (95% CI, 32.9%-40.7%) for 1 or more intermediate metrics, 18.4% (95% CI, 14.6%-22.4%) for 1 poor metric, and 2.6% (95% CI, 0%-6.6%) for 2 or more poor metrics. Among children of mothers with 2 or more poor metrics, the prevalence of all ideal metrics was 30.7% (95% CI, 22.0%-40.4%), 28.3% (95% CI, 19.7%-38.1%) for 1 or more intermediate metrics, 30.7% (95% CI, 22.0%-40.4%) for 1 poor metric, and 10.2% (95% CI, 1.6%-20.0%) for 2 or more poor metrics. The adjusted relative risks associated with 1 or more intermediate, 1 poor, and 2 or more poor (vs all ideal) metrics, respectively, in mothers during pregnancy were 1.17 (95% CI, 0.96-1.42), 1.66 (95% CI, 1.39-1.99), and 2.02 (95% CI, 1.55-2.64) for offspring to have 1 poor (vs all ideal) metrics, and the relative risks were 2.15 (95% CI, 1.23-3.75), 3.32 (95% CI,1.96-5.62), and 7.82 (95% CI, 4.12-14.85) for offspring to have 2 or more poor (vs all ideal) metrics. Additional adjustment for categorical birth factors (eg, preeclampsia) did not fully explain these significant associations (eg, relative risk for association between 2 or more poor metrics among mothers during pregnancy and 2 or more poor metrics among offspring after adjustment for an extended set of birth factors, 6.23 [95% CI, 3.03-12.82]).

METHODS: We studied 125 287 participants from 18 countries in North America, South America, Europe, Africa, and Asia in the Prospective Urban Rural Epidemiology (PURE) study. Habitual food intake was measured with validated food frequency questionnaires. We assessed the associations between nutrients (total fats, saturated fatty acids, monounsaturated fatty acids, polyunsaturated fatty acids, carbohydrates, protein, and dietary cholesterol) and cardiovascular disease risk markers using multilevel modelling. The effect of isocaloric replacement of saturated fatty acids with other fats and carbohydrates was determined overall and by levels of intakes by use of nutrient density models. We did simulation modelling in which we assumed that the effects of saturated fatty acids on cardiovascular disease events was solely related to their association through an individual risk marker, and then compared these simulated risk marker-based estimates with directly observed associations of saturated fatty acids with cardiovascular disease events.

FINDINGS: Participants were enrolled into the study from Jan 1, 2003, to March 31, 2013. Intake of total fat and each type of fat was associated with higher concentrations of total cholesterol and LDL cholesterol, but also with higher HDL cholesterol and apolipoprotein A1 (ApoA1), and lower triglycerides, ratio of total cholesterol to HDL cholesterol, ratio of triglycerides to HDL cholesterol, and ratio of apolipoprotein B (ApoB) to ApoA1 (all ptrend<0·0001). Higher carbohydrate intake was associated with lower total cholesterol, LDL cholesterol, and ApoB, but also with lower HDL cholesterol and ApoA1, and higher triglycerides, ratio of total cholesterol to HDL cholesterol, ratio of triglycerides to HDL cholesterol, and ApoB-to-ApoA1 ratio (all ptrend<0·0001, apart from ApoB [ptrend=0·0014]). Higher intakes of total fat, saturated fatty acids, and carbohydrates were associated with higher blood pressure, whereas higher protein intake was associated with lower blood pressure. Replacement of saturated fatty acids with carbohydrates was associated with the most adverse effects on lipids, whereas replacement of saturated fatty acids with unsaturated fats improved some risk markers (LDL cholesterol and blood pressure), but seemed to worsen others (HDL cholesterol and triglycerides). The observed associations between saturated fatty acids and cardiovascular disease events were approximated by the simulated associations mediated through the effects on the ApoB-to-ApoA1 ratio, but not with other lipid markers including LDL cholesterol.

INTERPRETATION: Our data are at odds with current recommendations to reduce total fat and saturated fats. Reducing saturated fatty acid intake and replacing it with carbohydrate has an adverse effect on blood lipids. Substituting saturated fatty acids with unsaturated fats might improve some risk markers, but might worsen others. Simulations suggest that ApoB-to-ApoA1 ratio probably provides the best overall indication of the effect of saturated fatty acids on cardiovascular disease risk among the markers tested. Focusing on a single lipid marker such as LDL cholesterol alone does not capture the net clinical effects of nutrients on cardiovascular risk.

METHODS: This study used data from national STEPS surveys (STEPwise Approach to Surveillance) conducted between 2005 and 2010 in Cambodia, Malaysia and Mongolia of men and women aged 40-64 years. The study compared the differences and implications of various approaches to risk estimation at a population level using the World Health Organization/International Society of Hypertension (WHO/ISH) risk score charts. To aid interpretation and adjustment of scores and inform treatment in individuals, the charts are accompanied by practice notes about risk factors not included in the risk score calculations. Total risk was calculated amongst the populations using the charts alone and also adjusted according to these notes. Prevalence of traditional single risk factors was also calculated.

RESULTS: The prevalence of WHO/ISH "high CVD risk" (≥20% chance of developing a cardiovascular event over 10 years) of 6%, 2.3% and 1.3% in Mongolia, Malaysia and Cambodia, respectively, is in line with recent research when charts alone are used. However, these proportions rise to 33.3%, 20.8% and 10.4%, respectively when individuals with blood pressure > = 160/100 mm/Hg and/or hypertension medication are attributed to "high risk". Of those at "moderate risk" (10- < 20% chance of developing a cardio vascular event over 10 years), 100%, 94.3% and 30.1%, respectively are affected by at least one risk-increasing factor. Of all individuals, 44.6%, 29.0% and 15.0% are affected by hypertension as a single risk factor (systolic ≥ 140 mmHg or diastolic ≥ 90 mmHg or medication).