METHODS: An age-structured multi-state Markov model was developed to simulate the natural history of HCV infection. We tested three historical incidence scenarios that would give rise to the estimated prevalence in 2009, and calculated the incidence of cirrhosis, end-stage liver disease, and death, and disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) under each scenario, to the year 2039. In the baseline scenario, current antiviral treatment levels were extended from 2014 to the end of the simulation period. To estimate the disease burden averted under current sustained virological response rates and treatment levels, the baseline scenario was compared to a counterfactual scenario in which no past or future treatment is assumed.

RESULTS: In the baseline scenario, the projected disease burden for the year 2039 is 94,900 DALYs/year (95% credible interval (CrI): 77,100 to 124,500), with 2,002 (95% CrI: 1340 to 3040) and 540 (95% CrI: 251 to 1,030) individuals predicted to develop decompensated cirrhosis and hepatocellular carcinoma, respectively, in that year. Although current treatment practice is estimated to avert a cumulative total of 2,200 deaths from DC or HCC, a cumulative total of 63,900 HCV-related deaths is projected by 2039.

METHODS: Five databases were searched from 1990-2016 for studies that took place in countries with a GDP per capita of $7,000 to $13,000 USD. The data extraction was performed based on information regarding prevalence, sample size, age of participants, duration of intravenous drug use (IDU), recruitment location, dates of data collection, study design, sampling scheme, type of tests used in identifying antibody reactivity to HCV, and the use of confirmatory tests. The synthesis was performed with a random effects model. The Cochrane statistical Q-test was used to evaluate the statistical heterogeneity of the results.

RESULTS: The 33 studies included in the analysis correspond to a sample of seven countries and 23,342 observations. The point prevalence value estimates and confidence intervals of the random effects model were 0.729 and 0.644-0.800, respectively for all seven countries, and were greatest for China (0.633; 0.522-0.732) as compared to Brazil (0.396; 0.249-0.564). Prevalence for Montenegro (0.416; 0.237-0.621) and Malaysia (0.475; 0.177-0.792) appear to be intermediate. Mexico (0.960) and Mauritania (0.973) had only one study with the largest prevalence. A clear association was not observed between age or duration of IDU and prevalence of HCV, but the data from some groups may indicate a possible relationship. The measures of heterogeneity (Q and I2) suggest a high level of heterogeneity in studies conducted at the country level and by groups of countries.

Methods: Donated blood units were assessed for the presence or absence of HBV, HCV, and HIV using two screening method: serology and NAT. Reactive blood samples were then subjected to serological confirmatory and NAT discriminatory assays.

Results: A total of 9669 donors were recruited from September 2017 to June 2018. Among these, 36 donors were reactive either for HBV, HCV, or HIV by serological testing and eight by NAT screening. However, only 10 (three for HBV and seven for HCV) donors tested positive using serological testing and five (two for HBV and three for HCV) by NAT discriminatory assays. Note that all five NAT positive donors detected in the NAT discriminatory assays were confirmed to be serologically reactive. Therefore, the prevalence of HBV, HCV, and HIV was 0.03%, 0.1%, and 0.0%, respectively, in our donor pool.