METHODS: Using data from the Global Burden of Diseases (GBD), Injuries, and Risk Factors Study 2019, we assessed the age-standardized prevalence, incidence, mortality, and disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) of both asthma and AD from 1990 to 2019, stratified by geographic region, age, sex, and socio-demographic index (SDI). DALYs were calculated as the sum of years lived with disability and years of life lost to premature mortality. Additionally, the disease burden of asthma attributable to high body mass index, occupational asthmagens, and smoking was described.
RESULTS: In 2019, there were a total of 262 million [95% uncertainty interval (UI): 224-309 million] cases of asthma and 171 million [95% UI: 165-178 million] total cases of AD globally; age-standardized prevalence rates were 3416 [95% UI: 2899-4066] and 2277 [95% UI: 2192-2369] per 100,000 population for asthma and AD, respectively, a 24.1% [95% UI: -27.2 to -20.8] decrease for asthma and a 4.3% [95% UI: 3.8-4.8] decrease for AD compared to baseline in 1990. Both asthma and AD had similar trends according to age, with age-specific prevalence rates peaking at age 5-9 years and rising again in adulthood. The prevalence and incidence of asthma and AD were both higher for individuals with higher SDI; however, mortality and DALYs rates of individuals with asthma had a reverse trend, with higher mortality and DALYs rates in those in the lower SDI quintiles. Of the three risk factors, high body mass index contributed to the highest DALYs and deaths due to asthma, accounting for a total of 3.65 million [95% UI: 2.14-5.60 million] asthma DALYs and 75,377 [95% UI: 40,615-122,841] asthma deaths.
CONCLUSIONS: Asthma and AD continue to cause significant morbidity worldwide, having increased in total prevalence and incidence cases worldwide, but having decreased in age-standardized prevalence rates from 1990 to 2019. Although both are more frequent at younger ages and more prevalent in high-SDI countries, each condition has distinct temporal and regional characteristics. Understanding the temporospatial trends in the disease burden of asthma and AD could guide future policies and interventions to better manage these diseases worldwide and achieve equity in prevention, diagnosis, and treatment.
METHODS: We systematically reviewed Medline and Embase for population-based studies reporting hospitalization rates for IBD, Crohn's disease (CD), or ulcerative colitis (UC) in the 21st century. Log-linear models were used to calculate the average annual percentage change (AAPC) with associated 95% confidence intervals (95% CIs). Random-effects meta-analysis pooled country-level AAPCs. Data were stratified by the epidemiologic stage of a region: compounding prevalence (stage 3) in North America, Western Europe, and Oceania vs acceleration of incidence (stage 2) in Asia, Eastern Europe, and Latin America vs emergence (stage 1) in developing countries.
RESULTS: Hospitalization rates for a primary diagnosis of IBD were stable in countries in stage 3 (AAPC, -0.13%; 95% CI, -0.72 to 0.97), CD (AAPC, 0.20%; 95% CI, -1.78 to 2.17), and UC (AAPC, 0.02%; 95% CI, -0.91 to 0.94). In contrast, hospitalization rates for a primary diagnosis were increasing in countries in stage 2 for IBD (AAPC, 4.44%; 95% CI, 2.75 to 6.14), CD (AAPC, 8.34%; 95% CI, 4.38 to 12.29), and UC (AAPC, 3.90; 95% CI, 1.29 to 6.52). No population-based studies were available for developing regions in stage 1 (emergence).
CONCLUSIONS: Hospitalization rates for IBD are stabilizing in countries in stage 3, whereas newly industrialized countries in stage 2 have rapidly increasing hospitalization rates, contributing to an increasing burden on global health care systems.
METHODS: The spatial dependence of district-wise incidence rates is investigated using spatial autocorrelation analysis with two orders of contiguity weights for various pandemic waves. Nine determinants are chosen from 14 covariates of socio-demographic factors via elastic net regression and recursive partitioning. The relationships between incidence rates and socio-demographic factors are examined using ordinary least squares, spatial lag and spatial error models, and geographically weighted regression.
RESULTS: In the first 8 months of 2021, COVID-19 severely affected Sarawak's central region, which was followed by the southern region in the next 2 months. In the third wave, based on second-order spatial weights, the incidence rate in a district is most strongly influenced by its neighboring districts' rate, although the variance of incidence rates is best explained by local regression coefficient estimates of socio-demographic factors in the first wave. It is discovered that the percentage of households with garbage collection facilities, population density and the proportion of male in the population are positively associated with the increase in COVID-19 incidence rates.
CONCLUSION: This research provides useful insights for the State Government and public health authorities to critically incorporate socio-demographic characteristics of local communities into evidence-based decision-making for altering disease monitoring and response plans. Policymakers can make well-informed judgments and implement targeted interventions by having an in-depth understanding of the spatial patterns and relationships between COVID-19 incidence rates and socio-demographic characteristics. This will effectively help in mitigating the spread of the disease.
METHODS: The data from the Global Burden of Diseases Study 2019 (GBD 2019) results were used. Absolute incidence and death number, and age-standardized incidence and mortality rate (ASIR and ASMR) of NTDM in China and ASEAN were extracted. The estimated annual percentage change (EAPC) and join-point regression in the rates quantified the trends. Nonlinear regression (second order polynomial) was used to explore the association between SDI and ASRs.
RESULTS: The ASIR of NTDM increased in China, Philippines, Singapore and Brunei, at a speed of an average 4.15% (95% CI 3.83-4.47%), 2.15% (1.68-2.63%), 1.03% (0.63-1.43%), and 0.88% (0.60-1.17%) per year. Uptrends of ASIR of NTDM in recent years were found in China (2014-2017, APC = 10.4%), Laos (2005-2013, APC = 3.9%), Malaysia (2010-2015, APC = 4.3%), Philippines (2015-2019, APC = 4.2%), Thailand (2015-2019, APC = 2.4%), and Vietnam (2014-2017, APC = 3.2%, all P
METHODS: Haematological cancer cases with ICD-10 coded C81-C96 and ICD-O coded /3 diagnosed from 1996 to 2015 were retrieved from Sarawak Cancer Registry. Adult was defined as those 15 years and above. Incidence rate (IR) was calculated based on yearly Sarawak citizen population stratified to age, gender, and ethnic groups. Age-standardised IR (ASR) was calculated using Segi World Standard Population.
RESULTS: A total of 3,947 cases were retrieved and analysed. ASR was 10 and male predominance (IR ratio 1.32, 95%CI 1.24,1.41). Haematological cancers generally had a U-shaped distribution with lowest IR at age 10-14 years and exponential increment from age 40 years onwards, except acute lymphoblastic leukaemia (ALL) with highest IR in paediatric 2.8 versus adult 0.5. There was a significant difference in ethnic and specific categories of haematological cancers, of which, in general, Bidayuh (IR ratio 1.13, 95%CI 1.00, 1.27) and Melanau (IR ratio 0.54, 95%CI 0.45, 0.65) had the highest and lowest ethnic-specific IR, respectively, in comparison to Malay. The ASR (non-Hodgkin lymphoma, acute myeloid leukaemia, ALL, chronic myeloid leukaemia, and plasma cell neoplasm) showed a decreasing trend over the 20 years, -2.09 in general, while Hodgkin lymphoma showed an increasing trend of + 2.80. There was crude rate difference between the 11 administrative divisions of Sarawak.
CONCLUSIONS: This study provided the IR and ASR of haematological cancers in Sarawak for comparison to other regions of the world. Ethnic diversity in Sarawak resulted in significant differences in IR and ASR.
METHODS: Global IBD Visualization of Epidemiology Studies in the 21st Century (GIVES-21) is a population-based cohort of newly diagnosed persons with Crohn's disease and ulcerative colitis in Asia, Africa, and Latin America to be followed prospectively for 12 months. New cases were ascertained from multiple sources and were entered into a secured online system. Cases were confirmed using standard diagnostic criteria. In addition, endoscopy, pathology and pharmacy records from each local site were searched to ensure completeness of case capture. Validated environmental and dietary questionnaires were used to determine exposure in incident cases prior to diagnosis.
RESULTS: Through November 2022, 106 hospitals from 24 regions (16 Asia; 6 Latin America; 2 Africa) have joined the GIVES-21 Consortium. To date, over 290 incident cases have been reported. All patients have demographic data, clinical disease characteristics, and disease course data including healthcare utilization, medication history and environmental and dietary exposures data collected. We have established a comprehensive platform and infrastructure required to examine disease incidence, risk factors and disease course of IBD in the real-world setting.
CONCLUSIONS: The GIVES-21 consortium offers a unique opportunity to investigate the epidemiology of IBD and explores new clinical research questions on the association between environmental and dietary factors and IBD development in newly industrialized countries.
METHODS AND RESULTS: The 'COlchicine for the Prevention of Perioperative Atrial Fibrillation' (COP-AF) trial is an international, blinded, randomized trial that compares colchicine to placebo in patients aged at least 55 years and undergoing major noncardiac thoracic surgery with general anesthesia. Exclusion criteria include a history of AF and a contraindication to colchicine (eg, severe renal dysfunction). Oral colchicine at a dose of 0.5 mg or matching placebo is given within 4 hours before surgery. Thereafter, patients receive colchicine 0.5 mg or placebo twice daily for a total of 10 days. The 2 independent co-primary outcomes are clinically important perioperative AF (including atrial flutter) and MINS during 14 days of follow-up. The main safety outcomes are sepsis or infection and non-infectious diarrhea. We aim to enroll 3,200 patients from approximately 40 sites across 11 countries to have at least 80% power for the independent evaluation of the 2 co-primary outcomes. The COP-AF main results are expected in 2023.
CONCLUSIONS: COP-AF is a large randomized and blinded trial designed to determine whether colchicine reduces the risk of perioperative AF or MINS in patients who have major noncardiac thoracic surgery.
METHODS: We included all presentations of first-episode psychosis over 8.5 years to the DETECT Early Intervention for psychosis service in the Republic of Ireland (573 individuals aged 18-65, of whom 22% were first-generation migrants). Psychotic disorder diagnosis relied on SCID. The at-risk population was calculated using census data, and negative binomial regression was used to estimate incidence rate ratios.
RESULTS: The annual crude incidence rate for a first-episode psychotic disorder in the total cohort was 25.62 per 100000 population at risk. Migrants from Africa had a nearly twofold increased risk for developing a psychotic disorder compared to those born in the Republic of Ireland (IRR = 1.83, 95% CI 1.11-3.02, p = 0.02). In contrast, migrants from certain Asian countries had a reduced risk, specifically those from China, India, Philippines, Pakistan, Malaysia, Bangladesh and Hong Kong (aIRR = 0.36, 95% CI 0.16-0.81, p = 0.01).
CONCLUSIONS: Further research into the reasons for this inflated risk in specific migrant groups could produce insights into the aetiology of psychotic disorders. This information should also be used, alongside other data on environmental risk factors that can be determined from census data, to predict the incidence of psychotic disorders and thereby resource services appropriately.
METHODS: This study analyzed dengue cases from January 2014 to December 2021 and COVID-19 confirmed cases from January 2020 to December 2021 which was divided into the pre (2014 to 2019) and during COVID-19 pandemic (2020 to 2021) phases. The average annual dengue case incidence for geographical and demographic subgroups were calculated and compared between the pre and during the COVID-19 pandemic phases. In addition, Spearman rank correlation was performed to determine the correlation between weekly dengue and COVID-19 cases during the COVID-19 pandemic phase.
RESULTS: Dengue trends in Malaysia showed a 4-year cyclical trend with dengue case incidence peaking in 2015 and 2019 and subsequently decreasing in the following years. Reductions of 44.0% in average dengue cases during the COVID-19 pandemic compared to the pre-pandemic phase was observed at the national level. Higher dengue cases were reported among males, individuals aged 20-34 years, and Malaysians across both phases. Weekly dengue cases were significantly correlated (ρ = -0.901) with COVID-19 cases during the COVID-19 pandemic.
CONCLUSION: There was a reduction in dengue incidence during the COVID-19 pandemic compared to the pre-pandemic phase. Significant reductions were observed across all demographic groups except for the older population (>75 years) across the two phases.
METHODS: Data were derived from 360 inpatient medical records from six types C public and private hospitals in an Indonesian rural province. These data were accumulated from inpatient medical records from four major disciplines: medicine, surgery, obstetrics and gynecology, and pediatrics. The dependent variable was provider moral hazards, which included indicators of up-coding, readmission, and unnecessary admission. The independent variables are Physicians' characteristics (age, gender, and specialization), coders' characteristics (age, gender, education level, number of training, and length of service), and patients' characteristics (age, birth weight, length of stay, the discharge status, and the severity of patient's illness). We use logistic regression to investigate the determinants of moral hazard.
RESULTS: We found that the incidences of possible unnecessary admissions, up-coding, and readmissions were 17.8%, 11.9%, and 2.8%, respectively. Senior physicians, medical specialists, coders with shorter lengths of service, and patients with longer lengths of stay had a significant relationship with the incidence of moral hazard.
CONCLUSION: Unnecessary admission is the most common form of a provider's moral hazard. The characteristics of physicians and coders significantly contribute to the incidence of moral hazard. Hospitals should implement reward and punishment systems for doctors and coders in order to control moral hazards among the providers.