OBJECTIVES: The GBD (Global Burden of Disease) 2015 study integrated data on disease incidence, prevalence, and mortality to produce consistent, up-to-date estimates for cardiovascular burden.
METHODS: CVD mortality was estimated from vital registration and verbal autopsy data. CVD prevalence was estimated using modeling software and data from health surveys, prospective cohorts, health system administrative data, and registries. Years lived with disability (YLD) were estimated by multiplying prevalence by disability weights. Years of life lost (YLL) were estimated by multiplying age-specific CVD deaths by a reference life expectancy. A sociodemographic index (SDI) was created for each location based on income per capita, educational attainment, and fertility.
RESULTS: In 2015, there were an estimated 422.7 million cases of CVD (95% uncertainty interval: 415.53 to 427.87 million cases) and 17.92 million CVD deaths (95% uncertainty interval: 17.59 to 18.28 million CVD deaths). Declines in the age-standardized CVD death rate occurred between 1990 and 2015 in all high-income and some middle-income countries. Ischemic heart disease was the leading cause of CVD health lost globally, as well as in each world region, followed by stroke. As SDI increased beyond 0.25, the highest CVD mortality shifted from women to men. CVD mortality decreased sharply for both sexes in countries with an SDI >0.75.
CONCLUSIONS: CVDs remain a major cause of health loss for all regions of the world. Sociodemographic change over the past 25 years has been associated with dramatic declines in CVD in regions with very high SDI, but only a gradual decrease or no change in most regions. Future updates of the GBD study can be used to guide policymakers who are focused on reducing the overall burden of noncommunicable disease and achieving specific global health targets for CVD.
OBJECTIVE: To identify the studies on premature cardiovascular disease (CVD) mortality and synthesise their findings on YLL based on the regional area, main CVD types, sex, and study time.
METHOD: We conducted a systematic review of published CVD mortality studies that reported YLL as an indicator for premature mortality measurement. A literature search for eligible studies was conducted in five electronic databases: PubMed, Scopus, Web of Science (WoS), and the Cochrane Central Register of Controlled Trials (CENTRAL). The Newcastle-Ottawa Scale was used to assess the quality of the included studies. The synthesis of YLL was grouped into years of potential life lost (YPLL) and standard expected years of life lost (SEYLL) using descriptive analysis. These subgroups were further divided into WHO (World Health Organization) regions, study time, CVD type, and sex to reduce the effect of heterogeneity between studies.
RESULTS: Forty studies met the inclusion criteria for this review. Of these, 17 studies reported premature CVD mortality using YPLL, and the remaining 23 studies calculated SEYLL. The selected studies represent all WHO regions except for the Eastern Mediterranean. The overall median YPLL and SEYLL rates per 100,000 population were 594.2 and 1357.0, respectively. The YPLL rate and SEYLL rate demonstrated low levels in high-income countries, including Switzerland, Belgium, Spain, Slovenia, the USA, and South Korea, and a high rate in middle-income countries (including Brazil, India, South Africa, and Serbia). Over the past three decades (1990-2022), there has been a slight increase in the YPLL rate and the SEYLL rate for overall CVD and ischemic heart disease but a slight decrease in the SEYLL rate for cerebrovascular disease. The SEYLL rate for overall CVD demonstrated a notable increase in the Western Pacific region, while the European region has experienced a decline and the American region has nearly reached a plateau. In regard to sex, the male showed a higher median YPLL rate and median SEYLL rate than the female, where the rate in males substantially increased after three decades.
CONCLUSION: Estimates from both the YPLL and SEYLL indicators indicate that premature CVD mortality continues to be a major burden for middle-income countries. The pattern of the YLL rate does not appear to have lessened over the past three decades, particularly for men. It is vitally necessary to develop and execute strategies and activities to lessen this mortality gap.
SYSTEMATIC REVIEW REGISTRATION: PROSPERO CRD42021288415.
METHODS: A validated computer simulation model (the IMS CORE Diabetes Model) was used to estimate the long-term projection of costs and clinical outcomes. The model was populated with published characteristics of Thai patients with type 2 diabetes. Baseline risk factors were obtained from Thai cohort studies, while relative risk reduction was derived from a meta-analysis study conducted by the Canadian Agency for Drugs and Technology in Health. Only direct costs were taken into account. Costs of diabetes management and complications were obtained from hospital databases in Thailand. Both costs and outcomes were discounted at 3 % per annum and presented in US dollars in terms of 2014 dollar value. Incremental cost-effectiveness ratio (ICER) was calculated. One-way and probabilistic sensitivity analyses were also performed.
RESULTS: IGlar is associated with a slight gain in quality-adjusted life years (0.488 QALYs), an additional life expectancy (0.677 life years), and an incremental cost of THB119,543 (US$3522.19) compared with NPH insulin. The ICERs were THB244,915/QALY (US$7216.12/QALY) and THB176,525/life-year gained (LYG) (US$5201.09/LYG). The ICER was sensitive to discount rates and IGlar cost. At the acceptable willingness to pay of THB160,000/QALY (US$4714.20/QALY), the probability that IGlar was cost effective was less than 20 %.
CONCLUSIONS: Compared to treatment with NPH insulin, treatment with IGlar in type 2 diabetes patients who had uncontrolled blood glucose with oral anti-diabetic drugs did not represent good value for money at the acceptable threshold in Thailand.
Methods: This was a cross-sectional study of patients with non-valvular atrial fibrillation (NVAF) or venous thromboembolism (VTE) on long-term anticoagulant therapy attending the cardiology clinic and anticoagulation clinic of the University Malaya Medical Centre from July 1, 2016, to June 30, 2018. Patient QOL was assessed by using the Short Form 12 Health Survey (SF12), while treatment satisfaction was assessed by using the Perception of Anticoagulation Treatment Questionnaire 2 (PACT-Q2).
Results: A total of 208 patients were recruited; 52.4% received warfarin and 47.6% received DOAC. There was no significant difference in QOL between warfarin and DOAC based on SF12 (physical QOL, P=0.083; mental QOL, P=0.665). Nevertheless, patients in the DOAC group were significantly more satisfied with their treatment compared to the warfarin group based on PACT-Q2 (P=0.004). The hospitalisation rate was significantly higher in the warfarin group than the DOAC group (15.6% versus 3.0%, P=0.002). Clinically relevant minor bleeds and severe bleeding events were non-significantly higher in the warfarin group than the DOAC group (66.7% versus 40.0%, P=0.069).
Conclusion: Compared to warfarin, treatment of NVAF and VTE with DOAC showed comparable QOL, higher treatment satisfaction, lesser hospitalization, and a non-significant trend toward fewer bleeding episodes.
METHODS: We analysed data from 264,906 European adults from the EPIC prospective cohort study, aged between 40 and 70 years at the time of recruitment. Flexible parametric survival models were used to model risk of death conditional on risk factors, and survival functions and attributable fractions (AF) for deaths prior to age 70 years were calculated based on the fitted models.
RESULTS: We identified 11,930 deaths which occurred before the age of 70. The AF for premature mortality for smoking was 31 % (95 % confidence interval (CI), 31-32 %) and 14 % (95 % CI, 12-16 %) for poor diet. Important contributions were also observed for overweight and obesity measured by waist-hip ratio (10 %; 95 % CI, 8-12 %) and high blood pressure (9 %; 95 % CI, 7-11 %). AFs for physical inactivity and excessive alcohol intake were 7 % and 4 %, respectively. Collectively, the AF for all six risk factors was 57 % (95 % CI, 55-59 %), being 35 % (95 % CI, 32-37 %) among never smokers and 74 % (95 % CI, 73-75 %) among current smokers.
CONCLUSIONS: While smoking remains the predominant risk factor for premature death in Europe, poor diet, overweight and obesity, hypertension, physical inactivity, and excessive alcohol consumption also contribute substantially. Any attempt to minimise premature deaths will ultimately require all six factors to be addressed.
METHODS: Data for 91 countries were obtained from United Nations agencies. The response variable was life expectancy, and the determinant factors were demographic events (total fertility rate and adolescent fertility rate), socioeconomic status (mean years of schooling and gross national income per capita), and health factors (physician density and human immunodeficiency virus [HIV] prevalence rate). Path analysis was used to determine the direct, indirect, and total effects of these factors on life expectancy.
RESULTS: All determinant factors were significantly correlated with life expectancy. Mean years of schooling, total fertility rate, and HIV prevalence rate had significant direct and indirect effects on life expectancy. The total effect of higher physician density was to increase life expectancy.
CONCLUSIONS: We identified several direct and indirect pathways that predict life expectancy. The findings suggest that policies should concentrate on improving reproductive decisions, increasing education, and reducing HIV transmission. In addition, special attention should be paid to the emerging need to increase life expectancy by increasing physician density.