Displaying publications 21 - 40 of 93 in total

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  1. Yang F, Lodder P, Huang N, Liu X, Fu M, Guo J
    Psychiatry Res, 2023 Oct;328:115433.
    PMID: 37651839 DOI: 10.1016/j.psychres.2023.115433
    This study aims to estimate the global, regional, and national burden of depressive disorders in 204 countries and territories from 1990 to 2019. All data were obtained from the 2019 Global Burden of Disease (GBD) study. Age-period-cohort (APC) modeling was conducted to disentangle age, period, and birth cohort effects on depression incidence. We compared these estimates across regions classified based on their socio-demographic index (SDI). The Estimated Annual Percentage Change (EAPC) was calculated for each of the 204 countries and territories to identify the top five countries with increased depression incidence (Spain, Mexico, Malaysia, the United States of America, and Uruguay) and the top five countries with decreased depression incidence (Singapore, Estonia, Cuba, Maldives, and Sri Lanka). The results from APC analysis indicate that although depression incidence has decreased globally, the incidence rate in high SDI regions is still increasing, especially in the younger generations. Findings suggest that currently some populations are in need of receiving more psychological support (i.e., individuals born after 1950s in high SDI regions; males in middle SDI regions). Forthcoming studies could corroborate our findings using individual-level data which may guide future prevention and intervention of depression in high-risk populations or regions.
    Matched MeSH terms: Life Expectancy*
  2. Ng CJ, Teo CH, Ho CC, Tan WP, Tan HM
    Prev Med, 2014 Oct;67:295-302.
    PMID: 25117523 DOI: 10.1016/j.ypmed.2014.08.007
    This study aims to compare health status and its risk factors between men and women who are from countries of different income status in Asia.
    Matched MeSH terms: Life Expectancy*
  3. Fransen HP, Beulens JW, May AM, Struijk EA, Boer JM, de Wit GA, et al.
    Prev Med, 2015 Aug;77:119-24.
    PMID: 26007298 DOI: 10.1016/j.ypmed.2015.05.014
    Dietary patterns have been associated with the incidence or mortality of individual non-communicable diseases, but their association with disease burden has received little attention.
    Matched MeSH terms: Life Expectancy*
  4. Patriquin W
    Popul Today, 1988 Mar;16(3):12.
    PMID: 12341834
    Matched MeSH terms: Life Expectancy
  5. Charara R, Forouzanfar M, Naghavi M, Moradi-Lakeh M, Afshin A, Vos T, et al.
    PLoS One, 2017;12(1):e0169575.
    PMID: 28095477 DOI: 10.1371/journal.pone.0169575
    The Eastern Mediterranean Region (EMR) is witnessing an increase in chronic disorders, including mental illness. With ongoing unrest, this is expected to rise. This is the first study to quantify the burden of mental disorders in the EMR. We used data from the Global Burden of Disease study (GBD) 2013. DALYs (disability-adjusted life years) allow assessment of both premature mortality (years of life lost-YLLs) and nonfatal outcomes (years lived with disability-YLDs). DALYs are computed by adding YLLs and YLDs for each age-sex-country group. In 2013, mental disorders contributed to 5.6% of the total disease burden in the EMR (1894 DALYS/100,000 population): 2519 DALYS/100,000 (2590/100,000 males, 2426/100,000 females) in high-income countries, 1884 DALYS/100,000 (1618/100,000 males, 2157/100,000 females) in middle-income countries, 1607 DALYS/100,000 (1500/100,000 males, 1717/100,000 females) in low-income countries. Females had a greater proportion of burden due to mental disorders than did males of equivalent ages, except for those under 15 years of age. The highest proportion of DALYs occurred in the 25-49 age group, with a peak in the 35-39 years age group (5344 DALYs/100,000). The burden of mental disorders in EMR increased from 1726 DALYs/100,000 in 1990 to 1912 DALYs/100,000 in 2013 (10.8% increase). Within the mental disorders group in EMR, depressive disorders accounted for most DALYs, followed by anxiety disorders. Among EMR countries, Palestine had the largest burden of mental disorders. Nearly all EMR countries had a higher mental disorder burden compared to the global level. Our findings call for EMR ministries of health to increase provision of mental health services and to address the stigma of mental illness. Moreover, our results showing the accelerating burden of mental health are alarming as the region is seeing an increased level of instability. Indeed, mental health problems, if not properly addressed, will lead to an increased burden of diseases in the region.
    Matched MeSH terms: Life Expectancy
  6. Rodzlan Hasani WS, Muhamad NA, Hanis TM, Maamor NH, Wee CX, Omar MA, et al.
    PLoS One, 2023;18(4):e0283879.
    PMID: 37083866 DOI: 10.1371/journal.pone.0283879
    INTRODUCTION: Premature mortality refers to deaths that occur before the expected age of death in a given population. Years of life lost (YLL) is a standard parameter that is frequently used to quantify some component of an "avoidable" mortality burden.

    OBJECTIVE: To identify the studies on premature cardiovascular disease (CVD) mortality and synthesise their findings on YLL based on the regional area, main CVD types, sex, and study time.

    METHOD: We conducted a systematic review of published CVD mortality studies that reported YLL as an indicator for premature mortality measurement. A literature search for eligible studies was conducted in five electronic databases: PubMed, Scopus, Web of Science (WoS), and the Cochrane Central Register of Controlled Trials (CENTRAL). The Newcastle-Ottawa Scale was used to assess the quality of the included studies. The synthesis of YLL was grouped into years of potential life lost (YPLL) and standard expected years of life lost (SEYLL) using descriptive analysis. These subgroups were further divided into WHO (World Health Organization) regions, study time, CVD type, and sex to reduce the effect of heterogeneity between studies.

    RESULTS: Forty studies met the inclusion criteria for this review. Of these, 17 studies reported premature CVD mortality using YPLL, and the remaining 23 studies calculated SEYLL. The selected studies represent all WHO regions except for the Eastern Mediterranean. The overall median YPLL and SEYLL rates per 100,000 population were 594.2 and 1357.0, respectively. The YPLL rate and SEYLL rate demonstrated low levels in high-income countries, including Switzerland, Belgium, Spain, Slovenia, the USA, and South Korea, and a high rate in middle-income countries (including Brazil, India, South Africa, and Serbia). Over the past three decades (1990-2022), there has been a slight increase in the YPLL rate and the SEYLL rate for overall CVD and ischemic heart disease but a slight decrease in the SEYLL rate for cerebrovascular disease. The SEYLL rate for overall CVD demonstrated a notable increase in the Western Pacific region, while the European region has experienced a decline and the American region has nearly reached a plateau. In regard to sex, the male showed a higher median YPLL rate and median SEYLL rate than the female, where the rate in males substantially increased after three decades.

    CONCLUSION: Estimates from both the YPLL and SEYLL indicators indicate that premature CVD mortality continues to be a major burden for middle-income countries. The pattern of the YLL rate does not appear to have lessened over the past three decades, particularly for men. It is vitally necessary to develop and execute strategies and activities to lessen this mortality gap.

    SYSTEMATIC REVIEW REGISTRATION: PROSPERO CRD42021288415.

    Matched MeSH terms: Life Expectancy
  7. Chongmelaxme B, Phisalprapa P, Sawangjit R, Dilokthornsakul P, Chaiyakunapruk N
    Pharmacoeconomics, 2019 02;37(2):267-278.
    PMID: 30430467 DOI: 10.1007/s40273-018-0736-0
    INTRODUCTION: This study evaluated lifetime liver-related clinical outcomes, costs of treatment, and the cost-effectiveness of treatment options for non-alcoholic fatty liver disease (NAFLD) in Thailand.

    METHODS: A cost-utility analysis using a lifetime Markov model was conducted among Thai patients with NAFLD, from a societal perspective. Pioglitazone, vitamin E, a weight reduction program, and usual care were investigated, with the outcomes of interest being the number of cirrhosis and hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) cases, life expectancy, quality-adjusted life-years (QALYs), lifetime costs, and the incremental cost-effectiveness ratios (ICERs). One-way and probabilistic sensitivity analyses were performed.

    RESULTS: When compared with usual care, a weight reduction program can prevent cirrhosis and HCC cases by 13.91% (95% credible interval [CrI] 0.97, 20.59) and 2.12% (95% CrI 0.43, 4.56), respectively; pioglitazone can prevent cirrhosis and HCC cases by 9.30% (95% CrI -2.52, 15.24) and 1.42% (95% CrI -0.18, 3.74), respectively; and vitamin E can prevent cirrhosis and HCC cases by 7.32% (95% CrI -4.64, 15.56) and 1.12% (95% CrI -0.81, 3.44), respectively. Estimated incremental life expectancy and incremental QALYs for all treatment options compared with usual care were approximately 0.06 years and 0.07 QALYs, respectively. The lifetime costs of both a weight reduction program and pioglitazone were less than usual care, while vitamin E was $3050 (95% CrI 2354, 3650). The weight reduction program dominated all other treatment options. The probability of being cost-effective in Thailand's willingness-to-pay threshold ($4546/QALY gained) was 76% for the weight reduction program, 22% for pioglitazone, 2% for usual care, and 0% for vitamin E.

    CONCLUSIONS: A weight reduction program can prevent cirrhosis and HCC occurrences, and dominates all other treatment options. Pioglitazone and vitamin E demonstrated a trend towards decreasing the number of cirrhosis and HCC cases.

    Matched MeSH terms: Life Expectancy
  8. Homayoun Hani, Mohd-Azmi Mohd-Lila, Rasedee Abdullah, Zeenathul Nazariah Allaudin, Kazhal Sarsaifi, Faez Firdaus Jesse Abdullah
    MyJurnal
    Diabetes is one of the major life-threatening health problems worldwide today. It is one of the most fastgrowing diseases that cause many health complications and a leading cause of decreasing life expectancy and high mortality rate. Many studies have suggested several different types of intervention to treat Type 1 diabetes such as insulin therapy, islet transplantation, islet xenotransplantation and stem cell therapy. However, issues regarding the efficacy, cost and safety of these treatments are not always well addressed. For decades, diabetes treatments with few side effects and long-lasting insulin independence has remained one of the most challenging tasks facing scientists. Among the treatments mentioned above, application of human islet transplantation in patients with type 1 diabetes has progressed rapidly with significant achievement. Again, the lack of appropriate donors for islet transplantation and its high cost have led researchers to look for other alternatives. In this review, we discuss very pertinent issues that are related to diabetes treatments, their availability, advantages, disadvantages and also cost,
    Matched MeSH terms: Life Expectancy
  9. Ng DL, Gan GG, Chai CS, Chee KH, Tan KL, Tan SB, et al.
    Patient Prefer Adherence, 2019;13:1363-1373.
    PMID: 31616136 DOI: 10.2147/PPA.S204246
    Introduction and aim: Patient quality of life (QOL) while on long-term oral anticoagulant therapy has been receiving greater attention in recent years due to the increase in life expectancy brought about by advances in medical care. This study aimed to compare the QOL, treatment satisfaction, hospitalization and bleeding rate in patients on long-term warfarin versus direct oral anticoagulants (DOAC).

    Methods: This was a cross-sectional study of patients with non-valvular atrial fibrillation (NVAF) or venous thromboembolism (VTE) on long-term anticoagulant therapy attending the cardiology clinic and anticoagulation clinic of the University Malaya Medical Centre from July 1, 2016, to June 30, 2018. Patient QOL was assessed by using the Short Form 12 Health Survey (SF12), while treatment satisfaction was assessed by using the Perception of Anticoagulation Treatment Questionnaire 2 (PACT-Q2).

    Results: A total of 208 patients were recruited; 52.4% received warfarin and 47.6% received DOAC. There was no significant difference in QOL between warfarin and DOAC based on SF12 (physical QOL, P=0.083; mental QOL, P=0.665). Nevertheless, patients in the DOAC group were significantly more satisfied with their treatment compared to the warfarin group based on PACT-Q2 (P=0.004). The hospitalisation rate was significantly higher in the warfarin group than the DOAC group (15.6% versus 3.0%, P=0.002). Clinically relevant minor bleeds and severe bleeding events were non-significantly higher in the warfarin group than the DOAC group (66.7% versus 40.0%, P=0.069).

    Conclusion: Compared to warfarin, treatment of NVAF and VTE with DOAC showed comparable QOL, higher treatment satisfaction, lesser hospitalization, and a non-significant trend toward fewer bleeding episodes.

    Matched MeSH terms: Life Expectancy
  10. Phua KL
    Pac Health Dialog, 2009 Nov;15(2):117-27.
    PMID: 20443525
    Both the Maori of New Zealand and the Orang Asli of Malaysia are indigenous peoples who have been subjected to prejudice, discrimination and displacement in its various forms by other ethnic groups in their respective countries. However, owing to changes in the socio-political climate, they have been granted rights (including legal privileges) in more recent times. Data pertaining to the health and socio-economic status of the Maori and the Orang Asli are analysed to see if the granting of legal privileges has made any difference for the two communities. One conclusion is that legal privileges (and the granting of special status) do not appear to work well in terms of reducing health and socio-economic gaps.
    Matched MeSH terms: Life Expectancy/trends
  11. Sarina Md. Yusof, Maisarah Shari, Zulkifli Kadir, Aishah Adam, Teh, Lay Kek, Suhana Aiman, et al.
    Movement Health & Exercise, 2018;7(2):11-21.
    MyJurnal
    Background: Obesity is major contributor to diseases and mortality. Constant weight loss significantly reverses diseases related to obesity and helps prolong human life expectancy. To date, there has been limited scientific evidence comparing the effectiveness of the Aqua Zumba® Fitness program and conventional aqua jog among obese women. Thus, the purpose of this study is to compare the effects between 12 weeks of Aqua Zumba® Fitness and aqua jog on health parameters among middle-age women. Methods: A total of sixty sedentary obese women (BMI >30 kg/m2), aged 40-59 years old were randomized to either Aqua Zumba® Fitness (AZ, n=20), aqua jog (AJ, n=20) or control group (C, n=20). Exercise groups were involved in different 12-week aqua exercise programs, 3 times per week, 60 minutes per session, with an intensity of 50-75% of maximum heart rate. Body mass (BM), skeletal muscle mass (SMM), body fat percentage (BF%), waist circumference (WC), upper and lower body strength (UBS and LBS), cardiorespiratory fitness (CRF), and flexibility were measured at baseline (week-0) and post-exercise intervention (week-13). Result: The AZ group demonstrated significant changes (p
    Matched MeSH terms: Life Expectancy
  12. Venugopal A, Mohammad R, Koslan MFS, Sayd Bakar SR, Ali A
    Materials (Basel), 2021 May 06;14(9).
    PMID: 34066461 DOI: 10.3390/ma14092414
    The environmental condition in which the Royal Malaysian Airforce is currently operating its aircraft is prone to corrosion. This is due to the high relative humidity and temperature. With most of its aircraft being in the legacy aircraft era, the aircraft's main construction consists of the aluminium 2024 material. However, this material is prone to corrosion, thus reducing fatigue life and leading to fatigue failure. Using the concept of either Safe Life or Damage Tolerance as its fatigue design philosophy, the RMAF adopts the Aircraft Structure Integrity Program (ASIP) to monitor its structural integrity. With the current problem of not having the structural limitation on corrosion-damaged structure, the RMAF has embarked on its fatigue testing method. Finite Element (FE) studies and flight tests were conducted, and the outcome is summarized. The conclusion is that the longeron tested on the aircraft can withstand the operational load, and its yield strength is below the ultimate yield strength of the material. These research outcomes will also enhance the ASIP for other aircraft platforms in the RMAF fleet for its structure life assessment or service life extension program.
    Matched MeSH terms: Life Expectancy
  13. Khatoon R, Khoo EM
    Malays Fam Physician, 2007;2(2):70-73.
    PMID: 25606084 MyJurnal
    Stroke is the third leading cause of death, a major cause of disability in adults, and is frequently more disabling than fatal. With a decline in mortality from initial cerebral infarction and an increase in the life expectancy of the population, the number of patients with recurrent stroke and ensuing cardiovascular events will become greater. Thus it is important to find out those patients at high risk of stroke recurrence. This case report illustrates the process of recurrent stroke and the resulting disabilities and morbidities in a 42-year- old man. The role of integrated stroke rehabilitation programme is described.
    Matched MeSH terms: Life Expectancy
  14. Sazlina SG
    Malays Fam Physician, 2015;10(1):2-10.
    PMID: 26425289 MyJurnal
    The world population of older people is on the rise with improved health services. With longevity, older people are at increased risk of chronic non-communicable diseases (NCDs), which are also leading causes of death among older people. Screening through case finding in primary care would allow early identification of NCDs and its risk factors, which could lead to the reduction of related complications as well as mortality. However, direct evidence for screening older people is lacking and the decision to screen for diseases should be made based on comorbidity, functional status and life expectancy, and has to be individualised.
    Matched MeSH terms: Life Expectancy
  15. Syed Mohamed Aljunid, Namaitijiang Maimaiti, Zafar Ahmed, Amrizal Muhammad Nur, Norashidah Mohamed Nor, Normazwana Ismail, et al.
    MyJurnal
    As the Malaysian population ages, the burden of age-related cognitive disorders such as dementia and Alzheimer’s disease will increase concomitantly. This is one of the sub-study under a research project titled by quantify the cost of age-related cognitive impairment in Malaysia, which was undertaken to develop a clinical pathway for Mild Cognitive Impairment (MCI) and Dementia. The clinical pathway (CP) will be used to support the costing studies of MCI and Dementia. An expert group discussion (EGD) was conducted among selected experts from six (6) government hospitals from different states of Malaysia, Ministry of Health, and United Nations University, International Institute for Global Health, UKM and UPM. The expert group includes psychiatrist specialists and public health medicine specialists. A total of 15 participants took part in the EGD. The group was presented with the different approach in managing MCI and Dementia. Finally, the group came to the consensus agreement on the most appropriate and efficient ways of managing the two conditions. In the EGD, an operational definition for MCI and Dementia was agreed upon and a pathway was developed for the usual practice in the Malaysian health system. A typical case used, as a reference is a 60-year-old patient referred to a memory clinic with complaint of “forgetfulness”. After three outpatient visits in the clinic, the diagnosis of MCI and Dementia could be clinically established. The clinical pathways covered all active clinical and non-clinical management of the patient over a period of one year. The experts identified the additional resources required to manage these patients for the whole spectrum of lifetime based on the expected life expectancy. The Clinical pathway (CP) for MCI and Dementia was successfully developed in EGD with strong support from practitioners in the health system. The findings will help the researchers to identify all-important clinical activities and interventions that will be included in the costing study.
    Matched MeSH terms: Life Expectancy
  16. Thant, Z., Than, Mt, Shamsul, B.S., Wai, P.W., Htun, H.N.
    MyJurnal
    With economic growth and significant technological advances in the health sector, many countries have developed aggregate outcomes in terms of both health services and individual well-being. Life expectancy has seen a remarkable increase of more than fifty per cent between 1950 and 2009. Achievement is uneven, however, and some groups are better able to access health services than others. In our review, we explore the need and how to maximize health equity, efficiency and effectiveness. Methodology is the review and web surfing on public health, social science, humanity and development literature. The increasing gap in health inequality, however, calls for further reform of the health system to achieve both equity and efficiency. Health is essential for survival and human capability. Good health enables people to participate in society. A new approach to efficient and cost-effective health service provision is community participation in health development. Participation can increase the skills and knowledge of local people, thus providing opportunities to improve their lives (empowerment). Analysis suggests four functional changes to achieve equity and efficiency in maximizing health outputs: reforms targeting universal coverage to achieve universal access to health; people-centred service delivery through concentrating on health services based on need; public policy change targeting integrated and multi-system health planning; and collective health system and community response to achieve health for all.
    Matched MeSH terms: Life Expectancy
  17. Foong, R. T. K., Loo, Jason Siau Ee
    MyJurnal
    Introduction: The geriatric population in Malaysia is expanding rapidly due to increased life expectancies. The vulnerability of this population to the adverse effects of medications due to multiple comorbidities and polypharmacy predisposes them to potentially inappropriate medications (PIMSs). The Beers Criteria is a recognized tool for assessing PIMs, but the level of awareness regarding these criteria among community pharmacists is currently unknown.
    This study aimed to assess the awareness and knowledge of Beers Criteria and its extent of application in practice among community pharmacists in the Klang Valley, Malaysia. Methods: A cross-sectional study was conducted among 218 community pharmacists in the Klang Valley using a validated, self-administered questionnaire. Knowledge on PIMs was assessed using a ten-question clinical vignette based on Beers Criteria. Descriptive and inferential statistics were used to analyze the data. Results: Respondents had a significant proportion of their customer base who were elderly. Only 28% of respondents were aware of Beers Criteria, and of this group only 41% were aware of the latest update. The mean score for the clinical vignette was 5.42 ± 1.98. Awareness of Beers Criteria and years of experience in practice were associated with higher knowledge scores (p < 0.05). Good geriatric practices were reported by respondents with the exception of regular usage of Beers Criteria (16.5% agreement) and regularly asking
    elderly-looking customers their age (43.6% agreement). Most respondents (74.3%) utilized other clinical resources and were confident in providing care to elderly customers. Conclusion: Awareness of Beers Criteria remains low among community pharmacists. However, pharmacists utilized other resources and demonstrated good geriatric practices. While this shows the adequacy of current practice, efforts to increase awareness of geriatric-specific tools such as Beers Criteria may address specific knowledge gaps and improve the level of care involving the elderly.
    Matched MeSH terms: Life Expectancy
  18. Rose Irnawaty Ibrahim, Norazmir Mohd Nordin
    MATEMATIKA, 2020;36(3):209-216.
    MyJurnal
    Aging is a good indicator in demographic and health areas as the lifespan
    of the elderly population increases. Based on the government’s Economic Outlook 2019,
    it was found that an aging population would increase the government pension payments
    as the pensioners and their beneficiaries have longer life expectancy. Due to mortality
    rates decreasing over time, the life expectancy tends to increase in the future. The
    aims of this study are to forecast the mortality rates in the years 2020 and 2025 using
    the Heligman-Pollard model and then analyse the effect of mortality improvement on
    the pension cost (annuity factor) for the Malaysian population. However, this study
    only focuses on estimating the annuity factor using life annuities through the forecasted
    mortality rates. The findings indicated that the pension cost is expected to increase if
    the life expectancy of the Malaysian population increases due to the aging population
    the near future. Thus, to reduce pension costs and help the pensioners from insufficient
    financial income, the government needs to consider an extension of the retirement age in
    future.
    Matched MeSH terms: Life Expectancy
  19. Nur Idayu Ah Khaliludin, Zarina Mohd Khalid, Haliza Abd.Rahman
    MATEMATIKA, 2019;35(2):177-186.
    MyJurnal
    Life table is a table that shows mortality experience of a nation. However, in Malaysia, the information in this table is provided in the five-years age groups (abridged) instead of every one-year age. Hence, this study aims to estimate the one-year age mor- tality rates from the abridged mortality rates using several interpolation methods. We applied Kostaki method and the Akima spline method to five sets of Malaysian group mortality rates ranging from period of 2012 to 2016. The result were then compared with the one-year mortality rates. We found that the method by Akima is the best method for Malaysian mortality experience as it gives the least minimum of sum of square errors. The method does not only provide a good fit but also, shows a smooth mortality curve.
    Matched MeSH terms: Life Expectancy
  20. GBD 2015 Mortality and Causes of Death Collaborators
    Lancet, 2016 Oct 08;388(10053):1459-1544.
    PMID: 27733281 DOI: 10.1016/S0140-6736(16)31012-1
    BACKGROUND: Improving survival and extending the longevity of life for all populations requires timely, robust evidence on local mortality levels and trends. The Global Burden of Disease 2015 Study (GBD 2015) provides a comprehensive assessment of all-cause and cause-specific mortality for 249 causes in 195 countries and territories from 1980 to 2015. These results informed an in-depth investigation of observed and expected mortality patterns based on sociodemographic measures.
    METHODS: We estimated all-cause mortality by age, sex, geography, and year using an improved analytical approach originally developed for GBD 2013 and GBD 2010. Improvements included refinements to the estimation of child and adult mortality and corresponding uncertainty, parameter selection for under-5 mortality synthesis by spatiotemporal Gaussian process regression, and sibling history data processing. We also expanded the database of vital registration, survey, and census data to 14 294 geography-year datapoints. For GBD 2015, eight causes, including Ebola virus disease, were added to the previous GBD cause list for mortality. We used six modelling approaches to assess cause-specific mortality, with the Cause of Death Ensemble Model (CODEm) generating estimates for most causes. We used a series of novel analyses to systematically quantify the drivers of trends in mortality across geographies. First, we assessed observed and expected levels and trends of cause-specific mortality as they relate to the Socio-demographic Index (SDI), a summary indicator derived from measures of income per capita, educational attainment, and fertility. Second, we examined factors affecting total mortality patterns through a series of counterfactual scenarios, testing the magnitude by which population growth, population age structures, and epidemiological changes contributed to shifts in mortality. Finally, we attributed changes in life expectancy to changes in cause of death. We documented each step of the GBD 2015 estimation processes, as well as data sources, in accordance with Guidelines for Accurate and Transparent Health Estimates Reporting (GATHER).
    FINDINGS: Globally, life expectancy from birth increased from 61·7 years (95% uncertainty interval 61·4-61·9) in 1980 to 71·8 years (71·5-72·2) in 2015. Several countries in sub-Saharan Africa had very large gains in life expectancy from 2005 to 2015, rebounding from an era of exceedingly high loss of life due to HIV/AIDS. At the same time, many geographies saw life expectancy stagnate or decline, particularly for men and in countries with rising mortality from war or interpersonal violence. From 2005 to 2015, male life expectancy in Syria dropped by 11·3 years (3·7-17·4), to 62·6 years (56·5-70·2). Total deaths increased by 4·1% (2·6-5·6) from 2005 to 2015, rising to 55·8 million (54·9 million to 56·6 million) in 2015, but age-standardised death rates fell by 17·0% (15·8-18·1) during this time, underscoring changes in population growth and shifts in global age structures. The result was similar for non-communicable diseases (NCDs), with total deaths from these causes increasing by 14·1% (12·6-16·0) to 39·8 million (39·2 million to 40·5 million) in 2015, whereas age-standardised rates decreased by 13·1% (11·9-14·3). Globally, this mortality pattern emerged for several NCDs, including several types of cancer, ischaemic heart disease, cirrhosis, and Alzheimer's disease and other dementias. By contrast, both total deaths and age-standardised death rates due to communicable, maternal, neonatal, and nutritional conditions significantly declined from 2005 to 2015, gains largely attributable to decreases in mortality rates due to HIV/AIDS (42·1%, 39·1-44·6), malaria (43·1%, 34·7-51·8), neonatal preterm birth complications (29·8%, 24·8-34·9), and maternal disorders (29·1%, 19·3-37·1). Progress was slower for several causes, such as lower respiratory infections and nutritional deficiencies, whereas deaths increased for others, including dengue and drug use disorders. Age-standardised death rates due to injuries significantly declined from 2005 to 2015, yet interpersonal violence and war claimed increasingly more lives in some regions, particularly in the Middle East. In 2015, rotaviral enteritis (rotavirus) was the leading cause of under-5 deaths due to diarrhoea (146 000 deaths, 118 000-183 000) and pneumococcal pneumonia was the leading cause of under-5 deaths due to lower respiratory infections (393 000 deaths, 228 000-532 000), although pathogen-specific mortality varied by region. Globally, the effects of population growth, ageing, and changes in age-standardised death rates substantially differed by cause. Our analyses on the expected associations between cause-specific mortality and SDI show the regular shifts in cause of death composition and population age structure with rising SDI. Country patterns of premature mortality (measured as years of life lost [YLLs]) and how they differ from the level expected on the basis of SDI alone revealed distinct but highly heterogeneous patterns by region and country or territory. Ischaemic heart disease, stroke, and diabetes were among the leading causes of YLLs in most regions, but in many cases, intraregional results sharply diverged for ratios of observed and expected YLLs based on SDI. Communicable, maternal, neonatal, and nutritional diseases caused the most YLLs throughout sub-Saharan Africa, with observed YLLs far exceeding expected YLLs for countries in which malaria or HIV/AIDS remained the leading causes of early death.
    INTERPRETATION: At the global scale, age-specific mortality has steadily improved over the past 35 years; this pattern of general progress continued in the past decade. Progress has been faster in most countries than expected on the basis of development measured by the SDI. Against this background of progress, some countries have seen falls in life expectancy, and age-standardised death rates for some causes are increasing. Despite progress in reducing age-standardised death rates, population growth and ageing mean that the number of deaths from most non-communicable causes are increasing in most countries, putting increased demands on health systems.
    FUNDING: Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.
    Malaysian collaborators: Southern University College, Skudai, Malaysia (Y J Kim PhD); School of Medical Sciences, University of Science Malaysia, Kubang Kerian, Malaysia (K I Musa MD); Universiti Kebangsaan Malaysia Medical Centre, Kuala Lumpur, Malaysia (R Sahathevan PhD); Department of Community Medicine, International Medical University, Kuala Lumpur, Malaysia (C T Sreeramareddy MD); WorldFish, Penang, Malaysia (A L Thorne-Lyman ScD)
    Matched MeSH terms: Life Expectancy/trends*
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