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Automated diagnosis of congestive heart failure using dual tree complex wavelet transform and statistical features extracted from 2s of ECG signals

Sudarshan VK, Acharya UR, Oh SL, Adam M, Tan JH, Chua CK, et al.

Comput Biol Med, 2017 04 01;83:48-58.
PMID: 28231511 DOI: 10.1016/j.compbiomed.2017.01.019

Identification of alarming features in the electrocardiogram (ECG) signal is extremely significant for the prediction of congestive heart failure (CHF). ECG signal analysis carried out using computer-aided techniques can speed up the diagnosis process and aid in the proper management of CHF patients. Therefore, in this work, dual tree complex wavelets transform (DTCWT)-based methodology is proposed for an automated identification of ECG signals exhibiting CHF from normal. In the experiment, we have performed a DTCWT on ECG segments of 2s duration up to six levels to obtain the coefficients. From these DTCWT coefficients, statistical features are extracted and ranked using Bhattacharyya, entropy, minimum redundancy maximum relevance (mRMR), receiver-operating characteristics (ROC), Wilcoxon, t-test and reliefF methods. Ranked features are subjected to k-nearest neighbor (KNN) and decision tree (DT) classifiers for automated differentiation of CHF and normal ECG signals. We have achieved 99.86% accuracy, 99.78% sensitivity and 99.94% specificity in the identification of CHF affected ECG signals using 45 features. The proposed method is able to detect CHF patients accurately using only 2s of ECG signal length and hence providing sufficient time for the clinicians to further investigate on the severity of CHF and treatments.

Matched MeSH terms: Models, Statistical
Fulltext Bayesian inference of the Weibull model based on interval-censored survival data

Guure CB, Ibrahim NA, Adam MB

Comput Math Methods Med, 2013;2013:849520.
PMID: 23476718 DOI: 10.1155/2013/849520

Interval-censored data consist of adjacent inspection times that surround an unknown failure time. We have in this paper reviewed the classical approach which is maximum likelihood in estimating the Weibull parameters with interval-censored data. We have also considered the Bayesian approach in estimating the Weibull parameters with interval-censored data under three loss functions. This study became necessary because of the limited discussion in the literature, if at all, with regard to estimating the Weibull parameters with interval-censored data using Bayesian. A simulation study is carried out to compare the performances of the methods. A real data application is also illustrated. It has been observed from the study that the Bayesian estimator is preferred to the classical maximum likelihood estimator for both the scale and shape parameters.

Matched MeSH terms: Models, Statistical
Fulltext Biodiscovery of Potential Antibacterial Diagnostic Metabolites from the Endolichenic Fungus Xylaria venustula Using LC-MS-Based Metabolomics

Santiago KAA, Edrada-Ebel R, Dela Cruz TEE, Cheow YL, Ting ASY

Biology (Basel), 2021 Mar 04;10(3).
PMID: 33806264 DOI: 10.3390/biology10030191

Three species of the lichen Usnea (U. baileyi (Stirt.) Zahlbr., U. bismolliuscula Zahlbr. and U. pectinata Stirt.) and nine associated endolichenic fungi (ELF) were evaluated using a metabolomics approach. All investigated lichen crude extracts afforded antibacterial activity against Staphylococcus aureus (minimum inhibitory concentration (MIC): 0.0625 mg/mL), but none was observed against Escherichia coli, while the ELF extract Xylaria venustula was found to be the most active against S. aureus (MIC: 2.5 mg/mL) and E. coli (MIC: 5 mg/mL). X. venustula was fractionated and tested for to determine its antibacterial activity. Fractions XvFr1 to 5 displayed bioactivities against both test bacteria. Selected crude extracts and fractions were subjected to metabolomics analyses using high-resolution LC-MS. Multivariate analyses showed the presence of five secondary metabolites unique to bioactive fractions XvFr1 to 3, which were identified as responsible for the antibacterial activity of X. venustula. The p-values of these metabolites were at the margin of significance level, with methyl xylariate C (P_60) being the most significant. However, their high variable importance of projection (VIP) scores (>5) suggest these metabolites are potential diagnostic metabolites for X. venustula for "dual" bioactivity against S. aureus and E. coli. The statistical models also showed the distinctiveness of metabolites produced by lichens and ELF, thus supporting our hypotheses of ELF functionality similar to plant endophytes.

Matched MeSH terms: Models, Statistical
Fulltext Bridging the data gaps in the epidemiology of hepatitis C virus infection in Malaysia using multi-parameter evidence synthesis

McDonald SA, Mohamed R, Dahlui M, Naning H, Kamarulzaman A

BMC Infect Dis, 2014;14:564.
PMID: 25377240 DOI: 10.1186/s12879-014-0564-6

Collecting adequate information on key epidemiological indicators is a prerequisite to informing a public health response to reduce the impact of hepatitis C virus (HCV) infection in Malaysia. Our goal was to overcome the acute data shortage typical of low/middle income countries using statistical modelling to estimate the national HCV prevalence and the distribution over transmission pathways as of the end of 2009.

Matched MeSH terms: Models, Statistical
Classification of air quality using fuzzy synthetic multiplication

Abdullah L, Khalid ND

Environ Monit Assess, 2012 Nov;184(11):6957-65.
PMID: 22160435 DOI: 10.1007/s10661-011-2472-1

Proper identification of environment's air quality based on limited observations is an essential task to meet the goals of environmental management. Various classification methods have been used to estimate the change of air quality status and health. However, discrepancies frequently arise from the lack of clear distinction between each air quality, the uncertainty in the quality criteria employed and the vagueness or fuzziness embedded in the decision-making output values. Owing to inherent imprecision, difficulties always exist in some conventional methodologies when describing integrated air quality conditions with respect to various pollutants. Therefore, this paper presents two fuzzy multiplication synthetic techniques to establish classification of air quality. The fuzzy multiplication technique empowers the max-min operations in "or" and "and" in executing the fuzzy arithmetic operations. Based on a set of air pollutants data carbon monoxide, sulfur dioxide, nitrogen dioxide, ozone, and particulate matter (PM(10)) collected from a network of 51 stations in Klang Valley, East Malaysia, Sabah, and Sarawak were utilized in this evaluation. The two fuzzy multiplication techniques consistently classified Malaysia's air quality as "good." The findings indicated that the techniques may have successfully harmonized inherent discrepancies and interpret complex conditions. It was demonstrated that fuzzy synthetic multiplication techniques are quite appropriate techniques for air quality management.

Matched MeSH terms: Models, Statistical
Fulltext Classification of community-acquired outbreaks for the global transmission of COVID-19: Machine learning and statistical model analysis

Wang WC, Lin TY, Chiu SY, Chen CN, Sarakarn P, Ibrahim M, et al.

J Formos Med Assoc, 2021 Jun;120 Suppl 1:S26-S37.
PMID: 34083090 DOI: 10.1016/j.jfma.2021.05.010

BACKGROUND: As Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic led to the unprecedent large-scale repeated surges of epidemics worldwide since the end of 2019, data-driven analysis to look into the duration and case load of each episode of outbreak worldwide has been motivated.
METHODS: Using open data repository with daily infected, recovered and death cases in the period between March 2020 and April 2021, a descriptive analysis was performed. The susceptible-exposed-infected-recovery model was used to estimate the effective productive number (Rt). The duration taken from Rt > 1 to Rt

Matched MeSH terms: Models, Statistical
Classification of speech dysfluencies using LPC based parameterization techniques

Hariharan M, Chee LS, Ai OC, Yaacob S

J Med Syst, 2012 Jun;36(3):1821-30.
PMID: 21249515 DOI: 10.1007/s10916-010-9641-6

The goal of this paper is to discuss and compare three feature extraction methods: Linear Predictive Coefficients (LPC), Linear Prediction Cepstral Coefficients (LPCC) and Weighted Linear Prediction Cepstral Coefficients (WLPCC) for recognizing the stuttered events. Speech samples from the University College London Archive of Stuttered Speech (UCLASS) were used for our analysis. The stuttered events were identified through manual segmentation and were used for feature extraction. Two simple classifiers namely, k-nearest neighbour (kNN) and Linear Discriminant Analysis (LDA) were employed for speech dysfluencies classification. Conventional validation method was used for testing the reliability of the classifier results. The study on the effect of different frame length, percentage of overlapping, value of ã in a first order pre-emphasizer and different order p were discussed. The speech dysfluencies classification accuracy was found to be improved by applying statistical normalization before feature extraction. The experimental investigation elucidated LPC, LPCC and WLPCC features can be used for identifying the stuttered events and WLPCC features slightly outperforms LPCC features and LPC features.

Matched MeSH terms: Models, Statistical
Fulltext Combination of forecasts with an application to unemployment rate

Muniroh, M.F., Ismail, N., Lazim, M.A.

Pertanika Journal of Science & Technology, 2017;25(3):787-796.
MyJurnal

Combining forecast values based on simple univariate models may produce more favourable results than complex models. In this study, the results of combining the forecast values of Naïve model, Single Exponential Smoothing Model, The Autoregressive Moving Average (ARIMA) model, and Holt Method are shown to be superior to that of the Error Correction Model (ECM).Malaysia’s unemployment rates data are used in this study. The independent variable used in the ECM formulation is the industrial production index. Both data sets were collected for the months of January 2004 to December 2010. The selection criteria used to determine the best model, is the Mean Square Error (MSE), Root Mean Squared Error (RMSE) and Mean Absolute Percentage Error (MAPE). Initial findings showed that both time series data sets were not influenced by the seasonality effect.

Matched MeSH terms: Models, Statistical
Fulltext Coming down from the trees: is terrestrial activity in Bornean orangutans natural or disturbance driven?

Ancrenaz M, Sollmann R, Meijaard E, Hearn AJ, Ross J, Samejima H, et al.

Sci Rep, 2014;4:4024.
PMID: 24526001 DOI: 10.1038/srep04024

The orangutan is the world's largest arboreal mammal, and images of the red ape moving through the tropical forest canopy symbolise its typical arboreal behaviour. Records of terrestrial behaviour are scarce and often associated with habitat disturbance. We conducted a large-scale species-level analysis of ground-based camera-trapping data to evaluate the extent to which Bornean orangutans Pongo pygmaeus come down from the trees to travel terrestrially, and whether they are indeed forced to the ground primarily by anthropogenic forest disturbances. Although the degree of forest disturbance and canopy gap size influenced terrestriality, orangutans were recorded on the ground as frequently in heavily degraded habitats as in primary forests. Furthermore, all age-sex classes were recorded on the ground (flanged males more often). This suggests that terrestrial locomotion is part of the Bornean orangutan's natural behavioural repertoire to a much greater extent than previously thought, and is only modified by habitat disturbance. The capacity of orangutans to come down from the trees may increase their ability to cope with at least smaller-scale forest fragmentation, and to cross moderately open spaces in mosaic landscapes, although the extent of this versatility remains to be investigated.

Matched MeSH terms: Models, Statistical
Comparative studies of RSM Box-Behnken and ANN-Anfis fuzzy statistical analysis for seawater biodegradability using TiO2 photocatalyst

Mohammed N, Palaniandy P, Shaik F, Mewada H, Balakrishnan D

Chemosphere, 2023 Feb;314:137665.
PMID: 36581118 DOI: 10.1016/j.chemosphere.2022.137665

In this approach, a batch reactor was employed to study the degradation of pollutants under natural sunlight using TiO2 as a photocatalyst. The effects of photocatalyst dosage, reaction time and pH were investigated by evaluating the percentage removal efficiencies of total organic carbon (TOC), chemical oxygen demand (COD), biological oxygen demand (BOD) and biodegradability (BOD/COD). Design Expert-Response Surface Methodology Box Behnken Design (BBD) and MATLAB Artificial Neural Network - Adaptive Neuro Fuzzy Inference system (ANN-ANFIS) methods were employed to perform the statistical modelling. The experimental values of maximum percentage removal efficiencies were found to be TOC = 82.4, COD = 85.9, BOD = 30.9% and biodegradability was 0.070. According to RSM-BBD and ANFIS analysis, the maximum percentage removal efficiencies were found to be TOC = 90.3, 82.4; COD = 85.4, 85.9; BOD = 28.9, 30.9% and the biodegradability = 0.074, 0.080 respectively at the pH 7.5, reaction time 300 min and photocatalyst dosage of 4 g L-1. The study reveals both models found to be well predicted as compared with experimental values. The values of R2 for RSM-BBD (0.920) and for ANFIS (0.990) models were almost close to 1. The ANFIS model was found to be marginally better than that of RSM-BBD.

Matched MeSH terms: Models, Statistical*
Comparison of the Newtonian and relativistic predicted trajectories for a low-speed periodically delta-kicked system

Lan BL

Chaos, 2006 Sep;16(3):033107.
PMID: 17014212

The dynamics of a periodically delta-kicked Hamiltonian system moving at low speed (i.e., at speed much less than the speed of light) is studied numerically. In particular, the trajectory of the system predicted by Newtonian mechanics is compared with the trajectory predicted by special relativistic mechanics for the same parameters and initial conditions. We find that the Newtonian trajectory, although close to the relativistic trajectory for some time, eventually disagrees completely with the relativistic trajectory, regardless of the nature (chaotic, nonchaotic) of each trajectory. However, the agreement breaks down very fast if either the Newtonian or relativistic trajectory is chaotic, but very much slower if both the Newtonian and relativistic trajectories are nonchaotic. In the former chaotic case, the difference between the Newtonian and relativistic values for both position and momentum grows, on average, exponentially. In the latter nonchaotic case, the difference grows much slower, for example, linearly on average.

Matched MeSH terms: Models, Statistical
Fulltext Complex Network Theory Applied to the Growth of Kuala Lumpur's Public Urban Rail Transit Network

Ding R, Ujang N, Hamid HB, Wu J

PLoS One, 2015;10(10):e0139961.
PMID: 26448645 DOI: 10.1371/journal.pone.0139961

Recently, the number of studies involving complex network applications in transportation has increased steadily as scholars from various fields analyze traffic networks. Nonetheless, research on rail network growth is relatively rare. This research examines the evolution of the Public Urban Rail Transit Networks of Kuala Lumpur (PURTNoKL) based on complex network theory and covers both the topological structure of the rail system and future trends in network growth. In addition, network performance when facing different attack strategies is also assessed. Three topological network characteristics are considered: connections, clustering and centrality. In PURTNoKL, we found that the total number of nodes and edges exhibit a linear relationship and that the average degree stays within the interval [2.0488, 2.6774] with heavy-tailed distributions. The evolutionary process shows that the cumulative probability distribution (CPD) of degree and the average shortest path length show good fit with exponential distribution and normal distribution, respectively. Moreover, PURTNoKL exhibits clear cluster characteristics; most of the nodes have a 2-core value, and the CPDs of the centrality's closeness and betweenness follow a normal distribution function and an exponential distribution, respectively. Finally, we discuss four different types of network growth styles and the line extension process, which reveal that the rail network's growth is likely based on the nodes with the biggest lengths of the shortest path and that network protection should emphasize those nodes with the largest degrees and the highest betweenness values. This research may enhance the networkability of the rail system and better shape the future growth of public rail networks.

Matched MeSH terms: Models, Statistical
Computerized segmentation and measurement of chronic wound images

Ahmad Fauzi MF, Khansa I, Catignani K, Gordillo G, Sen CK, Gurcan MN

Comput Biol Med, 2015 May;60:74-85.
PMID: 25756704 DOI: 10.1016/j.compbiomed.2015.02.015

An estimated 6.5 million patients in the United States are affected by chronic wounds, with more than US$25 billion and countless hours spent annually for all aspects of chronic wound care. There is a need for an intelligent software tool to analyze wound images, characterize wound tissue composition, measure wound size, and monitor changes in wound in between visits. Performed manually, this process is very time-consuming and subject to intra- and inter-reader variability. In this work, our objective is to develop methods to segment, measure and characterize clinically presented chronic wounds from photographic images. The first step of our method is to generate a Red-Yellow-Black-White (RYKW) probability map, which then guides the segmentation process using either optimal thresholding or region growing. The red, yellow and black probability maps are designed to handle the granulation, slough and eschar tissues, respectively; while the white probability map is to detect the white label card for measurement calibration purposes. The innovative aspects of this work include defining a four-dimensional probability map specific to wound characteristics, a computationally efficient method to segment wound images utilizing the probability map, and auto-calibration of wound measurements using the content of the image. These methods were applied to 80 wound images, captured in a clinical setting at the Ohio State University Comprehensive Wound Center, with the ground truth independently generated by the consensus of at least two clinicians. While the mean inter-reader agreement between the readers varied between 67.4% and 84.3%, the computer achieved an average accuracy of 75.1%.

Matched MeSH terms: Models, Statistical
Contraceptive method switching over women's reproductive careers: evidence from Malaysian life history data, 1940s-70s

DaVanzo J, Reboussin D, Starbird E, Tan BA, Hadi SA

J Biosoc Sci Suppl, 1989;11:95-116.
PMID: 2489987

Several new concepts are used to describe contraceptive use histories for nearly 1200 women in Peninsular Malaysia. These histories are summarized by 81 episode histories. Transition matrices provide useful summaries of the changes women make in their contraceptive practice from one pregnancy interval to the next. Data from the mid-1940s to mid-1970s, during which period there was a dramatic increase in contraceptive use, reveal considerable inertia in individual couples' contraceptive practice. Persistence with a method was greater the less effective the method: while 86% of couples using no method in one interval used no method in the next, only 56% of couples using the pill in one interval also used it in the next. Virtually all transitions are of three types: continuation with the same method, a change from no method to some method, or a change from some method to no method. For only 1% of all pregnancies did couples use one contraceptive method before a pregnancy and a different method after the pregnancy. Differences are examined by calendar year and education.

Matched MeSH terms: Models, Statistical
Fulltext Correlation analysis of air pollutant index levels and dengue cases across five different zones in Selangor, Malaysia

Thiruchelvam L, Dass SC, Zaki R, Yahya A, Asirvadam VS

Geospat Health, 2018 05 07;13(1):613.
PMID: 29772882 DOI: 10.4081/gh.2018.613

This study investigated the potential relationship between dengue cases and air quality - as measured by the Air Pollution Index (API) for five zones in the state of Selangor, Malaysia. Dengue case patterns can be learned using prediction models based on feedback (lagged terms). However, the question whether air quality affects dengue cases is still not thoroughly investigated based on such feedback models. This work developed dengue prediction models using the autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) and ARIMA with an exogeneous variable (ARIMAX) time series methodologies with API as the exogeneous variable. The Box Jenkins approach based on maximum likelihood was used for analysis as it gives effective model estimates and prediction. Three stages of model comparison were carried out for each zone: first with ARIMA models without API, then ARIMAX models with API data from the API station for that zone and finally, ARIMAX models with API data from the zone and spatially neighbouring zones. Bayesian Information Criterion (BIC) gives goodness-of-fit versus parsimony comparisons between all elicited models. Our study found that ARIMA models, with the lowest BIC value, outperformed the rest in all five zones. The BIC values for the zone of Kuala Selangor were -800.66, -796.22, and -790.5229, respectively, for ARIMA only, ARIMAX with single API component and ARIMAX with API components from its zone and spatially neighbouring zones. Therefore, we concluded that API levels, either temporally for each zone or spatio- temporally based on neighbouring zones, do not have a significant effect on dengue cases.

Matched MeSH terms: Models, Statistical
Fulltext Cost-effectiveness of HPV vaccination regime: comparing twice versus thrice vaccinations dose regime among adolescent girls in Malaysia

Aljunid S, Maimaiti N, Nur AM, Noor MRM, Wan Puteh SE

BMC Public Health, 2016 Jan 23;16:71.
PMID: 26803814 DOI: 10.1186/s12889-016-2754-1

BACKGROUND: The HPV vaccine was introduced to Malaysian national immunization programme in 2010. The current implementation age of HPV vaccination in Malaysian is at the age of 13 years school girls, given according to a 3 doses protocol which may complicate implementation and compliance. Aim of the study is to determine the cost-effectiveness of HPV vaccination regime comparing twice versus thrice HPV vaccinations dose regime among adolescent girls in Malaysia.
METHODS: A Markov cohort model reflecting the natural history of HPV infection accounting for oncogenic and low-risk HPV was adapted for 13 year old Malaysian girls cohort (n = 274,050). Transition probabilities, utilities values, epidemiological and cost data were sourced from published literature and local data. Vaccine effectiveness was based on overall efficacy reported from 3-doses clinical trials, with the assumption that the 2-doses is non-inferior to the 3-doses allowing overall efficacy to be inferred from the 3-doses immunogenicity data. Price parity and life-long protection were assumed. The payer perspective was adopted, with appropriate discounting for costs (3 %) and outcomes (3 %). One way sensitivity analysis was conducted. The sensitivity analysis on cost of vaccine, vaccine coverage and discount rate with a 2-doses protocol was performed.
RESULT: The 3-doses and 2-doses regimes showed same number of Cervical Cancers averted (361 cases); QALYs saved at 7,732,266. However, the lifetime protection under the 2-doses regime, showed a significant cost-savings of RM 36, 722,700 compared to the 3-doses scheme. The MOH Malaysia could vaccinate 137,025 more girls in this country using saving 2-doses regime vaccination programme. The model predicted that 2-doses HPV vaccination schemes can avoid additional 180 Cervical Cancers and 63 deaths compare to 3-doses.
CONCLUSION: A 2-doses HPV vaccination scheme may enable Malaysian women to be protected at a lower cost than that achievable under a 3-doses scheme, while avoiding the same number of Cervical Cancer cases and deaths. Using the saving money with 2-doses, more Cervical Cancers and deaths can be avoided.

Matched MeSH terms: Models, Statistical
Cost-effectiveness of warfarin medication therapy adherence clinic versus usual medical clinic at Kuala Lumpur Hospital

Thanimalai S, Shafie AA, Ahmad Hassali MA, Sinnadurai J

Value Health Reg Issues, 2018 May;15:34-41.
PMID: 29474176 DOI: 10.1016/j.vhri.2017.05.006

BACKGROUND: Systematic anticoagulation management clinic is recommended to manage patients on chronic warfarin therapy. In Malaysia, the service was introduced as warfarin medication therapy adherence clinic (WMTAC), which is managed by pharmacists with a physician advisory.
OBJECTIVES: To assess the cost-effectiveness of WMTAC in comparison with usual medical clinic (UMC), which is managed by medical officers in Kuala Lumpur Hospital, a tertiary referral hospital in Malaysia.
METHODS: Data from a 6-month retrospective cohort study comparing the two clinics and the mean percentages of time in the therapeutic range for the patients were used to estimate the cost-effectiveness. The mean clinic costs were estimated using the time-motion study. A Markov model with a 6-monthly cycle was used to simulate lifetime cost-effectiveness from the perspective of the health care service provider. The base-case analysis assumed a cohort of patients with atrial fibrillation, 57 years of age with comorbid illnesses. The transition probabilities of these clinic outcomes were obtained from a literature search. Future costs and effectiveness were discounted by 3% to convert to present values. All costs were in Malaysian ringgit standardized for the year 2007.
RESULTS: The mean 6-month treatment cost was lower for the WMTAC, which was significantly lower (P < 0.001). The UMC was found to be dominated by the WMTAC for both intermediate and lifetime analyses. The sensitivity analysis showed that clinic consultation costs had a major impact on the cost-effectiveness analysis.
CONCLUSIONS: WMTAC is a more cost-effective option than UMC in Kuala Lumpur Hospital.
Study site: Medical clinic, Hospital Kuala Lumpur, Malaysia

Matched MeSH terms: Models, Statistical
Countries at risk of importation of chikungunya virus cases from Southern Thailand: A modeling study

Tuite AR, Watts AG, Khan K, Bogoch II

Infect Dis Model, 2019;4:251-256.
PMID: 31667444 DOI: 10.1016/j.idm.2019.09.001

Southern Thailand has been experiencing a large chikungunya virus (CHIKV) outbreak since October 2018. Given the magnitude and duration of the outbreak and its location in a popular tourist destination, we sought to determine international case exportation risk and identify countries at greatest risk of receiving travel-associated imported CHIKV cases. We used a probabilistic model to estimate the expected number of exported cases from Southern Thailand between October 2018 and April 2019. The model incorporated data on CHIKV natural history, infection rates in Southern Thailand, average length of stay for tourists, and international outbound air passenger numbers from the outbreak area. For countries highly connected to Southern Thailand by air travel, we ran 1000 simulations to estimate the expected number of imported cases. We also identified destination countries with conditions suitable for autochthonous CHIKV transmission. Over the outbreak period, we estimated that an average of 125 (95% credible interval (CrI): 102-149) cases would be exported from Southern Thailand to international destinations via air travel. China was projected to receive the most cases (43, 95% CrI: 30-56), followed by Singapore (7, 95% CrI: 2-12) and Malaysia (5, 95% CrI: 1-10). Twenty-three countries were projected to receive at least one imported case, and 64% of these countries had one or more regions that could potentially support autochthonous CHIKV transmission. The overall risk of international exportation of CHIKV cases associated with the outbreak is Southern Thailand is high. Our model projections are consistent with recent reports of CHIKV in travelers returning from the region. Countries should be alert to the possibility of CHIKV infection in returning travelers, particularly in regions where autochthonous transmission is possible.

Matched MeSH terms: Models, Statistical
Fulltext Denisova admixture and the first modern human dispersals into Southeast Asia and Oceania

Reich D, Patterson N, Kircher M, Delfin F, Nandineni MR, Pugach I, et al.

Am J Hum Genet, 2011 Oct 07;89(4):516-28.
PMID: 21944045 DOI: 10.1016/j.ajhg.2011.09.005

It has recently been shown that ancestors of New Guineans and Bougainville Islanders have inherited a proportion of their ancestry from Denisovans, an archaic hominin group from Siberia. However, only a sparse sampling of populations from Southeast Asia and Oceania were analyzed. Here, we quantify Denisova admixture in 33 additional populations from Asia and Oceania. Aboriginal Australians, Near Oceanians, Polynesians, Fijians, east Indonesians, and Mamanwa (a "Negrito" group from the Philippines) have all inherited genetic material from Denisovans, but mainland East Asians, western Indonesians, Jehai (a Negrito group from Malaysia), and Onge (a Negrito group from the Andaman Islands) have not. These results indicate that Denisova gene flow occurred into the common ancestors of New Guineans, Australians, and Mamanwa but not into the ancestors of the Jehai and Onge and suggest that relatives of present-day East Asians were not in Southeast Asia when the Denisova gene flow occurred. Our finding that descendants of the earliest inhabitants of Southeast Asia do not all harbor Denisova admixture is inconsistent with a history in which the Denisova interbreeding occurred in mainland Asia and then spread over Southeast Asia, leading to all its earliest modern human inhabitants. Instead, the data can be most parsimoniously explained if the Denisova gene flow occurred in Southeast Asia itself. Thus, archaic Denisovans must have lived over an extraordinarily broad geographic and ecological range, from Siberia to tropical Asia.

Matched MeSH terms: Models, Statistical
Describing Functioning in People Living With Spinal Cord Injury Across 22 Countries: A Graphical Modeling Approach

Ehrmann C, Reinhardt JD, Joseph C, Hasnan N, Perrouin-Verbe B, Tederko P, et al.

Arch Phys Med Rehabil, 2020 12;101(12):2112-2143.
PMID: 32980339 DOI: 10.1016/j.apmr.2020.09.374

OBJECTIVE: To provide prevalence estimates for problems in functioning of community-dwelling persons with spinal cord injury (SCI) and to examine associations between various areas of functioning with the purpose of supporting countries in identifying targets for interventions.
DESIGN: Cross-sectional survey.
SETTING: Community, 22 countries including all World Health Organization regions.
PARTICIPANTS: Persons (N=12,591) with traumatic or nontraumatic SCI aged 18 years or older.
INTERVENTIONS: Not applicable.
MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES: We estimated the prevalence of problems in 53 areas of functioning from the Brief International Classification of Functioning, Disability and Health (ICF) core set for SCI, long-term context, or ICF rehabilitation set covering 4 domains: impairments in body functions, impairments in mental functions, independence in performing activities, and restrictions in participation. Associations between areas of functioning were identified and visualized using conditional independence graphs.
RESULTS: Participants had a median age of 52 years, 73% were male, and 63% had paraplegia. Feeling tired, bowel dysfunction, sexual functions, spasticity, pain, carrying out daily routine, doing housework, getting up off the floor from lying on the back, pushing open a heavy door, and standing unsupported had the highest prevalence of problems (>70%). Clustering of associations within the 4 functioning domains was found, with the highest numbers of associations within impairments in mental functions. For the whole International Spinal Cord Injury sample, areas with the highest numbers of associations were circulatory problems, transferring bed-wheelchair, and toileting, while for the World Health Organization European and Western Pacific regions, these were dressing upper body, transferring bed-wheelchair, handling stress, feeling downhearted and depressed, and feeling happy.
CONCLUSIONS: In each domain of functioning, high prevalence of problems and high connectivity of areas of functioning were identified. The understanding of problems and the identification of potential targets for intervention can inform decision makers at all levels of the health system aiming to improve the situation of people living with SCI.

Matched MeSH terms: Models, Statistical

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