METHODS: An agent-based model (ABM) is a relatively new approach that provides a framework for analyzing the heterogeneity of the interactions, along with biological and environmental factors in such complex systems. The objective of this research is to design and develop an ABM that uses Geospatial Information System (GIS) capabilities, biological behaviors of vectors and reservoir hosts, and an improved Susceptible-Exposed-Infected-Recovered (SEIR) epidemic model to explore the spread of ZCL. Various scenarios were implemented to analyze the future ZCL spreads in different parts of Maraveh Tappeh County, in the northeast region of Golestan Province in northeastern Iran, with alternative socio-ecological conditions.
RESULTS: The results confirmed that the spread of the disease arises principally in the desert, low altitude areas, and riverside population centers. The outcomes also showed that the restricting movement of humans reduces the severity of the transmission. Moreover, the spread of ZCL has a particular temporal pattern, since the most prevalent cases occurred in the fall. The evaluation test also showed the similarity between the results and the reported spatiotemporal trends.
CONCLUSIONS: This study demonstrates the capability and efficiency of ABM to model and predict the spread of ZCL. The results of the presented approach can be considered as a guide for public health management and controlling the vector population .
METHODS: To understand the regulation by temperature of leaf phenology in tropical trees, we performed daily observations of leaf production under rainfall-independent conditions using saplings of Shorea leprosula and Neobalanocarpus heimii, both species of Dipterocarpaceae, a dominant tree family of Southeast Asia. We analyzed the time-series data obtained using empirical dynamic modeling (EDM) and conducted growth chamber experiments.
RESULTS: Leaf production by dipterocarps fluctuated in the absence of fluctuation in rainfall, and the peaks of leaf production were more frequent than those of day length, suggesting that leaf production cannot be fully explained by these environmental factors, although they have been proposed as regulators of leaf phenology in dipterocarps. Instead, EDM suggested a causal relationship between temperature and leaf production in dipterocarps. Leaf production by N. heimii saplings in chambers significantly increased when temperature was increased after long-term low-temperature treatment. This increase in leaf production was observed even when only nighttime temperature was elevated, suggesting that the effect of temperature on development is not mediated by photosynthesis.
CONCLUSIONS: Because seasonal variation in temperature in the tropics is small, effects on leaf phenology have been overlooked. However, our results suggest that temperature is a regulator of leaf phenology in dipterocarps. This information will contribute to better understanding of the effects of climate change in the tropics.
MATERIALS AND METHODS: Lethality was calculated as the rate of deaths in a determinate moment from the outbreak of the pandemic out of the total of identified positives for COVID-19 in a given area/nation, based on the COVID-John Hopkins University website. Lethality of countries located within the 5th parallels North/South on 6 April and 6 May 2020, was compared with that of all the other countries. Lethality in the European areas of The Netherlands, France and the United Kingdom was also compared to the territories of the same nations in areas with a non-temperate climate.
RESULTS: A lower lethality rate of COVID-19 was found in Equatorial countries both on April 6 (OR=0.72 CI 95% 0.66-0.80) and on May 6 (OR=0.48, CI 95% 0.47-0.51), with a strengthening over time of the protective effect. A trend of higher risk in European vs. non-temperate areas was found on April 6, but a clear difference was evident one month later: France (OR=0.13, CI 95% 0.10-0.18), The Netherlands (OR=0.5, CI 95% 0.3-0.9) and the UK (OR=0.2, CI 95% 0.01-0.51). This result does not seem to be totally related to the differences in age distribution of different sites.
CONCLUSIONS: The study does not seem to exclude that the lethality of COVID-19 may be climate sensitive. Future studies will have to confirm these clues, due to potential confounding factors, such as pollution, population age, and exposure to malaria.