METHODS/DESIGN: This is an intervention study of a 12-week exercise therapy that will explore and compare the effects of light resistance and aerobic exercise on physical activity level and quality of life components in 102 female breast cancer survivors. Major eligibility criteria include histologically confirmed diagnosis of breast cancer stages I-III, 3-12 months post-diagnosis, and absence of any disorder contraindicating exercise. Participants will be stratified based on menopausal status (pre-menopause vs post-menopause) and then assigned randomly to one of three groups. Participants in group A will participate in a three-times weekly supervised resistance exercise using light resistance dumbbells; participants in group B will participate in a three-times weekly supervised aerobic exercise; while participants in group C (control group) will be given aerobic exercise after completion of the intervention. The primary end points include physical activity level and quality of life components. The secondary end points are body mass index, body composition, total caloric intake, and waist-to-hip ratio.
DISCUSSION: Although there have been many studies of resistance exercise in breast cancer survivors, this is the first study using this specific mode of resistance. Findings will contribute data on the feasibility and effects of light resistance dumbbell exercises, and provide knowledge on the physical activity intervention programme that will maximally promote better overall health and well-being of survivors.
METHODOLOGY: This study was conducted using daily confirmed cases of COVID-19 collected from the official Ministry of Health, Malaysia (MOH) and John Hopkins University websites. An Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) model was fitted to the training data of observed cases from 22 January to 31 March 2020, and subsequently validated using data on cases from 1 April to 17 April 2020. The ARIMA model satisfactorily forecasted the daily confirmed COVID-19 cases from 18 April 2020 to 1 May 2020 (the testing phase).
RESULTS: The ARIMA (0,1,0) model produced the best fit to the observed data with a Mean Absolute Percentage Error (MAPE) value of 16.01 and a Bayes Information Criteria (BIC) value of 4.170. The forecasted values showed a downward trend of COVID-19 cases until 1 May 2020. Observed cases during the forecast period were accurately predicted and were placed within the prediction intervals generated by the fitted model.
CONCLUSIONS: This study finds that ARIMA models with optimally selected covariates are useful tools for monitoring and predicting trends of COVID-19 cases in Malaysia.
MATERIALS AND METHODS: Pre-COVID data were collected between January 1, 2019, to March 18, 2020, when a national lockdown was implemented, which caused the suspension of services at the breast clinic of University Malaya Medical Centre (UMMC). COVID data was obtained from March 2020 until June 2021.
RESULTS: This study compared 374 breast cancer patients in the COVID-19 period with 382 patients in the pre-COVID period. There was no significant difference in the median (range) time to surgery between pre-COVID [45 (26.50-153.50) days] and COVID [44 (24.75-156.25) days] periods. The clinicopathological features of breast cancer showed reduction in in situ carcinoma and increase in Stage 4 diagnoses during the COVID period. There was a reduction in screening-detected carcinoma (9% vs. 12.3%), mastectomy followed by immediate reconstruction (5.6% vs. 14.5%) and adjuvant chemotherapy (25.8% vs. 32.9%) in the COVID period.
CONCLUSION: In this center COVID-19 caused operational changes in breast cancer management, including a reduction in reconstructive procedures and adjuvant treatment. Healthcare disruption and fear of COVID may have caused delayed diagnosis, resulting in a higher frequency of Stage 4 disease and lower proportion of in situ carcinoma during the pandemic. However, there was no delay in the time to surgery, reduction in surgical volume, or change in surgery types.