The classical procedures of comparing two groups, such as t-test are, usually restricted with the assumptions of normality and equal variances. When these assumptions are violated, the rates of the Type I errors of the independent samples t-test are affected, particularly when the sample sizes are small. In this situation, the bootstrap procedure has an advantage over the parametric t-test. In this study, the performances of the bootstrap procedure and the independent sample t-test were investigated. The investigation focused on the power of both the test procedures to compare the two groups under different design specifications for normal and chi-square distributions. The results showed that the bootstrap procedure has a slight edge over the conventional t-test in term of the rate of achieving the benchmark level for both the distributions. In fact, the bootstrap procedure consistently outperformed the conventional t-test across all the combinations of the test conditions.
Industrial statistics is an important part of the management system in any industry that strives to continuously improve quality and increase productivity and efficiency. That system covers supply chain management, production design and prototyping, production process and marketing. Industrial statisticians, industrial engineers and industrial leaders should work together hand in hand, in the same language, to ensure that the process and products are as expected. The system itself is never complete. Thus, the usefulness, manageability and reliability of all statistical models used in the system are to be considered as first priority, but those skills are not sufficient. Industrial statisticians should also, of course, be able to come and go between the two poles: statistics and industry. This requirement needs a good understanding about the culture of these poles and how to conduct a mutual symbiosis. One of the principal bridges between these cultures is statistical process control (SPC). This paper is to show that modern industry cannot escape from SPC, especially in a multivariate setting. This setting, which characterizes modern industry, consists of two philosophical problems: how to order data and how to measure process variability. Our recent research results sponsored by the Government of Malaysia will be presented to illustrate the challenging statistical problems in modern industry.
This study investigated the potential relationship between dengue cases and air quality - as measured by the Air Pollution Index (API) for five zones in the state of Selangor, Malaysia. Dengue case patterns can be learned using prediction models based on feedback (lagged terms). However, the question whether air quality affects dengue cases is still not thoroughly investigated based on such feedback models. This work developed dengue prediction models using the autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) and ARIMA with an exogeneous variable (ARIMAX) time series methodologies with API as the exogeneous variable. The Box Jenkins approach based on maximum likelihood was used for analysis as it gives effective model estimates and prediction. Three stages of model comparison were carried out for each zone: first with ARIMA models without API, then ARIMAX models with API data from the API station for that zone and finally, ARIMAX models with API data from the zone and spatially neighbouring zones. Bayesian Information Criterion (BIC) gives goodness-of-fit versus parsimony comparisons between all elicited models. Our study found that ARIMA models, with the lowest BIC value, outperformed the rest in all five zones. The BIC values for the zone of Kuala Selangor were -800.66, -796.22, and -790.5229, respectively, for ARIMA only, ARIMAX with single API component and ARIMAX with API components from its zone and spatially neighbouring zones. Therefore, we concluded that API levels, either temporally for each zone or spatio- temporally based on neighbouring zones, do not have a significant effect on dengue cases.
Breast cancer is considered as one of the most common cancers all over the world. A huge effort has been made to create a safe and cost effective breast cancer treatment. All of these features exist in the plants sources. In this study, the effect of local vegetable salad, Premna serratifolia (Bebuas) against MCF-7 cells (human breast adenocarcinoma) was determined. The optimum condition to extract breast cancer cytotoxic compound from the plant was investigated and the exact cytotoxic compound was identified as well. To determine the plant cytotoxicity effect against MCF-7 cells, MTT assay was used. Two important parameters in the sonication extraction method which are duration of time and temperature were optimized by carrying out a series of experiments which were designed by Face Centered Central Composite Design (FCCCD). The extraction efficiency of each experiment was determined by measuring the yield of extract and the half maximal inhibitory concentration (IC50) of the extract against MCF-7 cells. The results obtained from the experiments were fitted to the second order polynomial model to generate equation that was used to determine best extraction processing condition. Based on the generated equation, the best sonication processing condition to extract the cytotoxic compound is at 30oC for 67 min. Analysis of variance (ANOVA) showed that the duration of extraction time has great influence (p
As a chronic disease, diabetes mellitus has emerged as a worldwide epidemic. The aim of this study is to classify diabetes disease by developing an intelligence system using machine learning techniques. Our method is developed through clustering, noise removal and classification approaches. Accordingly, we use expectation maximization, principal component analysis and support vector machine for clustering, noise removal and classification tasks, respectively. We also develop the proposed method for incremental situation by applying the incremental principal component analysis and incremental support vector machine for incremental learning of data. Experimental results on Pima Indian Diabetes dataset show that proposed method remarkably improves the accuracy of prediction and reduces computation time in relation to the non-incremental approaches. The hybrid intelligent system can assist medical practitioners in the healthcare practice as a decision support system.
Linear time series models are not able to capture the behaviour of many financial time series, as in the cases of exchange rates and stock market data. Some phenomena, such as volatility and structural breaks in time series data, cannot be modelled implicitly using linear time series models. Therefore, nonlinear time series models are typically designed to accommodate for such nonlinear features. In the present study, a nonlinearity test and a structural change test are used to detect the nonlinearity and the break date in three ASEAN currencies, namely the Indonesian Rupiah (IDR), the Malaysian Ringgit (MYR) and the Thai Baht (THB). The study finds that the null hypothesis of linearity is rejected and evidence of structural breaks exist in the exchange rates series. Therefore, the decision to use the self-exciting threshold autoregressive (SETAR) model in the present study is justified. The results showed that the SETAR model, as a regime switching model, can explain abrupt changes in a time series. To evaluate the prediction performance of SETAR model, an Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) model used as a benchmark. In order to increase the accuracy of prediction, both models are combined with an exponential generalised autoregressive conditional heteroscedasticity (EGARCH) model. The prediction results showed that the construct model of SETAR-EGARCH performs better than that of the ARIMA model and the combined ARIMA and EGARCH model. The results indicated that nonlinear models give better fitting than linear models.
Spatio-temporal land-use change modeling, simulation, and prediction have become one of the critical issues in the last three decades due to uncertainty, structure, flexibility, accuracy, the ability for improvement, and the capability for integration of available models. Therefore, many types of models such as dynamic, statistical, and machine learning (ML) models have been used in the geographic information system (GIS) environment to fulfill the high-performance requirements of land-use modeling. This paper provides a literature review on models for modeling, simulating, and predicting land-use change to determine the best approach that can realistically simulate land-use changes. Therefore, the general characteristics of conventional and ML models for land-use change are described, and the different techniques used in the design of these models are classified. The strengths and weaknesses of the various dynamic, statistical, and ML models are determined according to the analysis and discussion of the characteristics of these models. The results of the review confirm that ML models are the most powerful models for simulating land-use change because they can include all driving forces of land-use change in the simulation process and simulate linear and non-linear phenomena, which dynamic models and statistical models are unable to do. However, ML models also have limitations. For instance, some ML models are complex, the simulation rules cannot be changed, and it is difficult to understand how ML models work in a system. However, this can be solved via the use of programming languages such as Python, which in turn improve the simulation capabilities of the ML models.
Dengue is fast becoming the most urgent health issue in Malaysia, recording close to a 10-fold increase in cases over the last decade. With much uncertainty hovering over the recently introduced tetravalent vaccine and no effective antiviral drugs, vector control remains the most important strategy in combating dengue. This study analyses the relationship between weather predictors including its lagged terms, and dengue incidence in the District of Tawau over a period of 12 years, from 2006 to 2017. A forecasting model purposed to predict future outbreaks in Tawau was then developed using this data. Monthly dengue incidence data, mean temperature, maximum temperature, minimum temperature, mean relative humidity and mean rainfall over a period of 12 years from 2006 to 2017 in Tawau were retrieved from Tawau District Health Office and the Malaysian Meteorological Department. Cross-correlation analysis between weather predictors, lagged terms of weather predictors and dengue incidences established statistically significant cross-correlation between lagged periods of weather predictors-namely maximum temperature, mean relative humidity and mean rainfall with dengue incidence at time lags of 4-6 months. These variables were then employed into 3 different methods: a multivariate Poisson regression model, a Seasonal Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (SARIMA) model and a SARIMA with external regressors for selection. Three models were selected but the SARIMA with external regressors model utilising maximum temperature at a lag of 6 months (p-value:0.001), minimum temperature at a lag of 4 months (p-value:0.01), mean relative humidity at a lag of 2 months (p-value:0.001), and mean rainfall at a lag of 6 months (p-value:0.001) produced an AIC of 841.94, and a log-likelihood score of -413.97 establishing it as the best fitting model of the methodologies utilised. In validating the models, they were utilised to develop forecasts with the model selected with the highest accuracy of predictions being the SARIMA model predicting 1 month in advance (MAE: 7.032, MSE: 83.977). This study establishes the effect of weather on the intensity and magnitude of dengue incidence as has been previously studied. A prediction model remains a novel method of evidence-based forecasting in Tawau, Sabah. The model developed in this study, demonstrated an ability to forecast potential dengue outbreaks 1 to 4 months in advance. These findings are not dissimilar to what has been previously studied in many different countries- with temperature and humidity consistently being established as powerful predictors of dengue incidence magnitude. When used in prognostication, it can enhance- decision making and allow judicious use of resources in public health setting. Nevertheless, the model remains a work in progress- requiring larger and more diverse data.
The optimization data presented here are part of the study planned to remove the caffeine from aqueous solution through the large surface area optimized H3PO4-activated Acacia mangium wood activated carbon (OAMW-AC). The maximum adsorption capacity of the OAMW-AC for caffeine adsorption was achieved (30.3 mg/g) through optimized independent variables such as, OAMW-AC dosage (3.0 g/L), initial caffeine concentration (100 mg/L), contact time (60 min), and solution pH (7.7). The adsorption capacity of OAMW-AC was optimized with the help of rotatable central composite design of response surface methodology. Under the stated optimized conditions for maximum adsorption capacity, the removal efficiency was calculated to be 93%. The statistical significance of the data set was tested through the analysis of variance (ANOVA) study. Data confirmed the statistical model for caffeine adsorption was significant. The regression coefficient (R2) of curve fitting through the quadratic model was found to be 0.9832, and the adjusted regression coefficient was observed to be 0.9675.
Background: Like other affected countries around the globe, Malaysia is shocked by the Coronavirus disease 2019, which is also known as COVID-19.Aims: This commentary article discusses the COVID-19 scenario in Malaysia, particularly in relation to the sudden increase in the number of new cases related to an international mass gathering.Findings: Projection through modelling helps the relevant authorities to act quickly and effectively, including enforcement of physical and social distancing. Modelling also assists in understanding the link between the biological processes that underpin transmission events and the population-level dynamics of the disease.Conclusion: There is no one-size-fits-all approach in managing disease outbreak. The fight against COVID-19 very much depends on their attitude during the 14-day Movement Control Order (MCO) which has been extended recently.
Propylene is one type of plastic that is widely used in our everyday life. This study focuses on the identification and justification of the optimum process parameters for polypropylene production in a novel pilot plant based fluidized bed reactor. This first-of-its-kind statistical modeling with experimental validation for the process parameters of polypropylene production was conducted by applying ANNOVA (Analysis of variance) method to Response Surface Methodology (RSM). Three important process variables i.e., reaction temperature, system pressure and hydrogen percentage were considered as the important input factors for the polypropylene production in the analysis performed. In order to examine the effect of process parameters and their interactions, the ANOVA method was utilized among a range of other statistical diagnostic tools such as the correlation between actual and predicted values, the residuals and predicted response, outlier t plot, 3D response surface and contour analysis plots. The statistical analysis showed that the proposed quadratic model had a good fit with the experimental results. At optimum conditions with temperature of 75 °C, system pressure of 25 bar and hydrogen percentage of 2%, the highest polypropylene production obtained is 5.82% per pass. Hence it is concluded that the developed experimental design and proposed model can be successfully employed with over a 95% confidence level for optimum polypropylene production in a fluidized bed catalytic reactor (FBCR).
In this work; a response surface methodology (RSM) was implemented to investigate the process variables in a hydrogen production system. The effects of five independent variables; namely the temperature (X₁); the flow rate (X₂); the catalyst weight (X₃); the catalyst loading (X₄) and the glycerol-water molar ratio (X₅) on the H₂ yield (Y₁) and the conversion of glycerol to gaseous products (Y₂) were explored. Using multiple regression analysis; the experimental results of the H₂ yield and the glycerol conversion to gases were fit to quadratic polynomial models. The proposed mathematical models have correlated the dependent factors well within the limits that were being examined. The best values of the process variables were a temperature of approximately 600 °C; a feed flow rate of 0.05 mL/min; a catalyst weight of 0.2 g; a catalyst loading of 20% and a glycerol-water molar ratio of approximately 12; where the H₂ yield was predicted to be 57.6% and the conversion of glycerol was predicted to be 75%. To validate the proposed models; statistical analysis using a two-sample t-test was performed; and the results showed that the models could predict the responses satisfactorily within the limits of the variables that were studied.
Learning is an intentional activity, with several factors affecting students' intention to use new learning technology. Researchers have investigated technology acceptance in different contexts by developing various theories/models and testing them by a number of means. Although most theories/models developed have been examined through regression or structural equation modeling, Bayesian analysis offers more accurate data analysis results. To address this gap, the unified theory of acceptance and technology use in the context of e-learning via Facebook are re-examined in this study using Bayesian analysis. The data (S1 Data) were collected from 170 students enrolled in a business statistics course at University of Malaya, Malaysia, and tested with the maximum likelihood and Bayesian approaches. The difference between the two methods' results indicates that performance expectancy and hedonic motivation are the strongest factors influencing the intention to use e-learning via Facebook. The Bayesian estimation model exhibited better data fit than the maximum likelihood estimator model. The results of the Bayesian and maximum likelihood estimator approaches are compared and the reasons for the result discrepancy are deliberated.
As clean water can be considered among the essentials of human life, there is always a requirement to seek its foremost and high quality. Water primarily becomes polluted due to organic as well as inorganic pollutants, including nutrients, heavy metals, and constant contamination with organic materials. Predicting the quality of water accurately is essential for its better management along with controlling pollution. With stricter laws regarding water treatment to remove organic and biologic materials along with different pollutants, looking for novel technologic procedures will be necessary for improved control of the treatment processes by water utilities. Linear regression-based models with relative simplicity considering water prediction have been typically used as available statistical models. Nevertheless, in a majority of real problems, particularly those associated with modeling of water quality, non-linear patterns will be observed, requiring non-linear models to address them. Thus, artificial intelligence (AI) can be a good candidate in modeling and optimizing the elimination of pollutants from water in empirical settings with the ability to generate ideal operational variables, due to its recent considerable advancements. Management and operation of water treatment procedures are supported technically by these technologies, leading to higher efficiency compared to sole dependence on human operations. Thus, establishing predictive models for water quality and subsequently, more efficient management of water resources would be critically important, serving as a strong tool. A systematic review methodology has been employed in the present work to investigate the previous studies over the time interval of 2010-2020, while analyzing and synthesizing the literature, particularly regarding AI application in water treatment. A total number of 92 articles had addressed the topic under study using AI. Based on the conclusions, the application of AI can obviously facilitate operations, process automation, and management of water resources in significantly volatile contexts.
Effective waste management has been greatly restricted by insufficient statistical data on the generation, processing and waste disposal. This study was undertaken in the municipality of Tehran. A total of 6,060 samples were compared by statistically comparing source generation, destination and intermediate stations. The results from these analyses showed that the average per capita waste generation in Tehran was 589 g day(-1). It was also observed that, of the total amount of waste generated in the municipality of Tehran, 73% was domestic waste and 27% was non-domestic waste. In addition, 68% of total household waste was organic waste, while 41% of non-domestic waste was organic waste. Furthermore, 61% of waste in Tehran was generated at the source, while 72% of the waste coming into the Aradkoh disposal and processing center was organic waste. The physical analysis was showed that there was no significant difference between the wastes generated in 2004 and those generated in 2009 and that there was not equal percentage of wet waste coming into the disposal center with urban service stations. This indicates that active source separation programs in metropolitan Tehran.
Bacterial attachment onto materials has been suggested to be stochastic by some authors but nonstochastic and based on surface properties by others. We investigated this by attaching pairwise combinations of two Salmonella enterica serovar Sofia (S. Sofia) strains (with different physicochemical and attachment properties) with one strain each of S. enterica serovar Typhimurium, S. enterica serovar Infantis, or S. enterica serovar Virchow (all with similar physicochemical and attachment abilities) in ratios of 0.428, 1, and 2.333 onto glass, stainless steel, Teflon, and polysulfone. Attached bacterial cells were recovered and counted. If the ratio of attached cells of each Salmonella serovar pair recovered was the same as the initial inoculum ratio, the attachment process was deemed stochastic. Experimental outcomes from the study were compared to those predicted by the extended Derjaguin-Landau-Verwey-Overbeek (XDLVO) theory. Significant differences (P < 0.05) between the initial and the attached ratios for serovar pairs containing S. Sofia S1296a for all different ratios were apparent for all materials. For S. Sofia S1635-containing pairs, 7 out of 12 combinations of serovar pairs and materials had attachment ratios not significantly different (P > 0.05) from the initial ratio of 0.428. Five out of 12 and 10 out of 12 samples had attachment ratios not significantly different (P > 0.05) from the initial ratios of 1 and 2.333, respectively. These results demonstrate that bacterial attachment to different materials is likely to be nonstochastic only when the key physicochemical properties of the bacteria were significantly different (P < 0.05) from each other. XDLVO theory could successfully predict the attachment of some individual isolates to particular materials but could not be used to predict the likelihood of stochasticity in pairwise attachment experiments.
A novel procedure using phase congruency is proposed for discriminating some lung disease using chest radiograph. Phase congruency provides information about transitions between adjacent pixels. Abrupt changes of phase congruency values between pixels may suggest a possible boundary or another feature that may be used for discrimination. This property of phase congruency may have potential for deciding between disease present and disease absent where the regions of infection on the images have no obvious shape, size, or configuration. Five texture measures calculated from phase congruency and Gabor were shown to be normally distributed. This gave good indicators of discrimination errors in the form of the probability of Type I Error (δ) and the probability of Type II Error (β). However, since 1 - δ is the true positive fraction (TPF) and β is the false positive fraction (FPF), an ROC analysis was used to decide on the choice of texture measures. Given that features are normally distributed, for the discrimination between disease present and disease absent, energy, contrast, and homogeneity from phase congruency gave better results compared to those using Gabor. Similarly, for the more difficult problem of discriminating lobar pneumonia and lung cancer, entropy and homogeneity from phase congruency gave better results relative to Gabor.
Asymmetrical street aspect ratios, i.e. different height-to-width (H1/W-H2/W) ratios, have not received much attention in the study of urban climates. Putrajaya Boulevard (northeast to southwest orientation) in Malaysia was selected to study the influence of six asymmetrical aspect ratio scenarios on the street microclimate using the Envi-met three-dimensional microclimate model (V3.1 Beta). Putrajaya Boulevard suffers from high surface and air temperature during the day due to the orientation, the low aspect ratio and the wide sky view factor. These issues are a common dilemma in many boulevards. Further, low and high symmetrical streets are incompatible with tropical regions as they offer conflicting properties during the day and at night. These scenarios are examined, therefore, to find asymmetrical streets which are able to reduce the impact of the day microclimate on boulevards, and as an alternative strategy fulfilling tropical day and night climatic conditions. Asymmetrical streets are better than low symmetrical streets in enhancing wind flow and blocking solar radiation, when tall buildings confront winds direction or solar altitudes. Therefore, mitigating heat islands or improving microclimates in asymmetrical streets based on tall buildings position which captures wind or caste shades. In northeast to southwest direction, aspect ratios of 0.8-2 reduce the morning microclimate and night heat islands yet the negative effects during the day are greater than the positive effects in the night. An aspect ratio of 2-0.8 reduces the temperature of surfaces by 10 to 14 °C and the air by 4.7 °C, recommended for enhancing boulevard microclimates and mitigating tropical heat islands.
This study uncovered inhibiting factors to cost performance in large construction projects of Malaysia. Questionnaire survey was conducted among clients and consultants involved in large construction projects. In the questionnaire, a total of 35 inhibiting factors grouped in 7 categories were presented to the respondents for rating significant level of each factor. A total of 300 questionnaire forms were distributed. Only 144 completed sets were received and analysed using advanced multivariate statistical software of Structural Equation Modelling (SmartPLS v2). The analysis involved three iteration processes where several of the factors were deleted in order to make the model acceptable. The result of the analysis found that R(2) value of the model is 0.422 which indicates that the developed model has a substantial impact on cost performance. Based on the final form of the model, contractor's site management category is the most prominent in exhibiting effect on cost performance of large construction projects. This finding is validated using advanced techniques of power analysis. This vigorous multivariate analysis has explicitly found the significant category which consists of several causative factors to poor cost performance in large construction projects. This will benefit all parties involved in construction projects for controlling cost overrun.
This review aimed to explore the extent of the use of diabetes risk assessment tools and to determine influential variables associated with the implementation of these tools. CINAHL, Google Scholar, ISI Citation Indexes, PubMed, and Scopus were searched from inception to January 2013. Studies that reported the use of diabetes risk assessment tools to identify individuals at risk of diabetes were included. Of the 1719 articles identified, 24 were included. Follow-up of high risk individuals for diagnosis of diabetes was conducted in 5 studies. Barriers to the uptake of diabetes risk assessment tools by healthcare practitioners included (1) attitudes toward the tools; (2) impracticality of using the tools and (3) lack of reimbursement and regulatory support. Individuals were reluctant to undertake self-assessment of diabetes risk due to (1) lack of perceived severity of type 2 diabetes; (2) impracticality of the tools; and (3) concerns related to finding out the results. The current use of non-invasive diabetes risk assessment scores as screening tools appears to be limited. Practical follow up systems as well as strategies to address other barriers to the implementation of diabetes risk assessment tools are essential and need to be developed.