METHODS: SEIRV models were developed and validated using COVID-19 case and vaccination data from the Ministry of Health, Malaysia, from June 21, 2021 to July 21, 2021 to generate forecasts of COVID-19 cases from July 22, 2021 to December 31, 2021. Three scenarios were examined to measure the effects of vaccination on COVID-19 case trends. Scenarios 1 and 2 represented the trends taking into account the earliest and latest possible times of achieving full vaccination for 80% of the adult population by October 31, 2021 and December 31, 2021, respectively. Scenario 3 described a scenario without vaccination for comparison.
RESULTS: In scenario 1, forecasted cases peaked on August 28, 2021, which was close to the peak of observed cases on August 26, 2021. The observed peak was 20.27% higher than in scenario 1 and 10.37% lower than in scenario 2. The cumulative observed cases from July 22, 2021 to December 31, 2021 were 13.29% higher than in scenario 1 and 55.19% lower than in scenario 2. The daily COVID-19 case trends closely mirrored the forecast of COVID-19 cases in scenario 1 (best-case scenario).
CONCLUSIONS: Our study demonstrated that COVID-19 vaccination reduced COVID-19 case trends during the Delta outbreak. The compartmental models developed assisted in the management and control of the COVID-19 pandemic in Malaysia.
MATERIALS AND METHODS: The clinic-based prospective evaluation included all suspected measles cases captured by routine measles surveillance at 34 purposely selected clinics in 15 health districts in Malaysia between September 2019 and June 2020, following day-long regional trainings on RDT use. Following informed consent, four specimens were collected from each suspected case, including those routinely collected for standard surveillance [serum for EIA and throat swabs for quantitative reverse transcriptase polymerase chain reaction (RT-qPCR)] together with capillary blood and oral fluid tested with RDTs during the study. RDT impact was evaluated by comparing the rapidity of measles public health response between the pre-RDT implementation (December 2018 to August 2019) and RDT implementation periods (September 2019 to June 2020). To assess knowledge, attitudes, and practices of RDT use, staff involved in the public health management of measles at the selected sites were surveyed.
RESULTS: Among the 436 suspect cases, agreement of direct visual readings of measles RDT devices between two health clinic staff was 99% for capillary blood (k = 0.94) and 97% for oral fluid (k = 0.90) specimens. Of the total, 45 (10%) were positive by measles IgM EIA (n = 44, including five also positive by RT-qPCR) or RT-qPCR only (n = 1), and 38 were positive by RDT (using either capillary blood or oral fluid). Using measles IgM EIA or RT-qPCR as reference, RDT sensitivity using capillary blood was 43% (95% CI: 30%-58%) and specificity was 98% (95% CI: 96%-99%); using oral fluid, sensitivity (26%, 95% CI: 15%-40%) and specificity (97%, 95% CI: 94%-98%) were lower. Nine months after training, RDT knowledge was high among staff involved with the public health management of measles (average quiz score of 80%) and was highest among those who received formal training (88%), followed by those trained during supervisory visits (83%). During the RDT implementation period, the number of days from case confirmation until initiation of public response decreased by about 5 days.
CONCLUSION: The measles IgM RDT shows >95% inter-reader agreement, high retention of RDT knowledge, and a more rapid public health response. However, despite ≥95% RDT specificity using capillary blood or oral fluid, RDT sensitivity was <45%. Higher-powered studies using highly specific IgM assays and systematic RT-qPCR for case confirmation are needed to establish the role of RDT in measles elimination settings.
MATERIALS AND METHODS: This cross-sectional study was carried out on 226 respondents, using a questionnaire which had 4 sections: socio-demographic data, personal information, family information and social information. Data was analyzed using SPSS® version 16. For categorical variables, comparisons were made using Chi-square and for numerical variables a t-test was performed.
RESULTS: The current smoker prevalence rate was 20.8% which showed a significant association between smoking and individual factors: level of knowledge on the effects of smoking (p < 0.05), significant association was seen between smoking and marital status of parents, smoking status of male siblings and various other aspects of the individuals themselves.
CONCLUSIONS: Concerted efforts involving various parties should be taken to curb or prevent this problem or the number of teenage smokers in the country will increase. This in the long run will invite problems to the well being of the adolescents themselves, their families, community and the nation as a whole.