METHODS: This study evaluated the cost effectiveness and impact of dengue vaccination in Malaysia from both provider and societal perspectives using a dynamic transmission mathematical model. The model incorporated sensitivity analyses, Malaysia-specific data, evidence from recent phase III studies and pooled efficacy and long-term safety data to refine the estimates from previous published studies. Unit costs were valued in $US, year 2013 values.
RESULTS: Six vaccination programmes employing a three-dose schedule were identified as the most likely programmes to be implemented. In all programmes, vaccination produced positive benefits expressed as reductions in dengue cases, dengue-related deaths, life-years lost, disability-adjusted life-years and dengue treatment costs. Instead of incremental cost-effectiveness ratios (ICERs), we evaluated the cost effectiveness of the programmes by calculating the threshold prices for a highly cost-effective strategy [ICER <1 × gross domestic product (GDP) per capita] and a cost-effective strategy (ICER between 1 and 3 × GDP per capita). We found that vaccination may be cost effective up to a price of $US32.39 for programme 6 (highly cost effective up to $US14.15) and up to a price of $US100.59 for programme 1 (highly cost effective up to $US47.96) from the provider perspective. The cost-effectiveness analysis is sensitive to under-reporting, vaccine protection duration and model time horizon.
CONCLUSION: Routine vaccination for a population aged 13 years with a catch-up cohort aged 14-30 years in targeted hotspot areas appears to be the best-value strategy among those investigated. Dengue vaccination is a potentially good investment if the purchaser can negotiate a price at or below the cost-effective threshold price.
Methods: We used JEV serological data from a multicountry Asian dengue vaccine study in children aged 2-14 years to describe JEV endemicity, measuring antibodies by plaque reduction neutralization test (PRNT50).
Results: A total 1479 unvaccinated subjects were included. A minimal estimate of pediatric JEV seroprevalence in dengue-naive individuals was 8.1% in Indonesia, 5.8% in Malaysia, 10.8% in the Philippines, and 30.7% in Vietnam, translating to annual infection risks varying from 0.8% (in Malaysia) to 5.2% (in Vietnam). JEV seroprevalence and annual infection estimates were much higher in children with history of dengue infection, indicating cross-neutralization within the JEV PRNT50 assay.
Conclusions: These data confirm JEV transmission across predominantly urban areas and support a greater emphasis on JEV case finding, diagnosis, and prevention.
METHODS: Vaccination impact was investigated with an age-structured, host-vector, serotype-specific compartmental model. Parameters related to vaccine efficacy and levels of dengue transmission were estimated using data collected during the phase III efficacy studies. Several vaccination programs, including routine vaccination at different ages with and without large catch-up campaigns, were investigated.
RESULTS: All vaccination programs explored translated into significant reductions in dengue cases at the population level over the first 10years following vaccine introduction and beyond. The most efficient age for vaccination varied according to transmission intensity and 9years was close to the most efficient age across all settings. The combination of routine vaccination and large catch-up campaigns was found to enable a rapid reduction of dengue burden after vaccine introduction.
CONCLUSION: Our analysis suggests that dengue vaccination can significantly reduce the public health impact of dengue in countries where the disease is endemic.
METHODS: Following ethical approval, we conducted hospital-based dengue surveillance for one year in three referral hospitals. Suspected cases aged 9-25 years underwent dengue virological confirmation by RT-PCR and/or NS1 Ag ELISA at a central laboratory. Two age- and geography-matched hospitalized non-dengue case-controls were recruited for a traditional CC study. Suspected cases testing negative were test-negative controls. Socio-demographic, risk factor and routine laboratory data were collected. Logistic regression models were used to estimate associations between confirmed dengue and risk factors.
RESULTS: We recruited 327 subjects; 155 were suspected of dengue. The planned sample size was not met. 124 (80%) of suspected cases were dengue-confirmed; seven were assessed as severe. Three had missing RT-PCR results; the study recruited 28 test-negative controls. Only 172 matched controls could be recruited; 90 cases were matched with ≥1 controls. Characteristics of cases and controls were mostly similar. By CC design, two variables were significant risk factors for hospitalized dengue: recent household dengue contact (OR: 54, 95% CI: 7.3-397) and recent neighbourhood insecticidal fogging (OR: 2.1; 95% CI: 1.3-3.6). In the TN design, no risk factors were identified. In comparison with gold-standard diagnostics, routine tests performed poorly.
CONCLUSIONS: The CC design may be more appropriate than the TN design for hospitalized dengue vaccine effectiveness studies. Selection bias in case control selection could be minimized by protocol changes more easily than increasing TN design control numbers, because early-stage dengue diagnosis in endemic countries is highly specific. MREC study approval: (39)KKM/NIHSEC/P16-1334.
METHODS: All reported DENV protein sequence data for each serotype was retrieved from the NCBI Entrez Protein (nr) Database (txid: 12637). The downloaded sequences were then separated according to the individual serotype proteins by use of BLASTp search, and subsequently removed for duplicates and co-aligned across the serotypes. Shannon's entropy and mutual information (MI) analyses, by use of AVANA, were performed to measure the diversity within and between the serotype proteins to identify HCSS nonamers. The sequences were evaluated for the presence of promiscuous T-cell epitopes by use of NetCTLpan 1.1 and NetMHCIIpan 3.2 server for human leukocyte antigen (HLA) class I and class II supertypes, respectively. The predicted epitopes were matched to reported epitopes in the Immune Epitope Database.
RESULTS: A total of 2321 nonamers met the HCSS selection criteria of entropy 0.8. Concatenating these resulted in a total of 337 HCSS sequences. DENV4 had the most number of HCSS nonamers; NS5, NS3 and E proteins had among the highest, with none in the C and only one in prM. The HCSS sequences were immune-relevant; 87 HCSS sequences were both reported T-cell epitopes/ligands in human and predicted epitopes, supporting the accuracy of the predictions. A number of the HCSS clustered as immunological hotspots and exhibited putative promiscuity beyond a single HLA supertype. The HCSS sequences represented, on average, ~ 40% of the proteome length for each serotype; more than double of pan-DENV sequences (conserved across the four serotypes), and thus offer a larger choice of sequences for vaccine target selection. HCSS sequences of a given serotype showed significant amino acid difference to all the variants of the other serotypes, supporting the notion of serotype-specificity.
CONCLUSION: This work provides a catalogue of HCSS sequences in the DENV proteome, as candidates for vaccine target selection. The methodology described herein provides a framework for similar application to other pathogens.
METHODS: In this phase IIIb, open-label, multicenter study (NCT02993757), participants were randomized 1:1 to receive 3 CYD-TDV doses 6 months apart and 2 doses of quadrivalent HPV vaccine concomitantly with, or 1 month before (sequentially), the first 2 CYD-TDV doses. Only baseline dengue-seropositive participants received the 3 doses. Antibody levels were measured at baseline and 28 days after each injection using an enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay for HPV-6, -9, -16 and -18, and the 50% plaque reduction neutralization test for the 4 dengue serotypes; immunogenicity results are presented for baseline dengue-seropositive participants. Safety was assessed throughout the study for all participants.
RESULTS: At baseline, 197 of 528 (37.3%) randomized participants were dengue-seropositive [n = 109 (concomitant group) and n = 88 (sequential group)]. After the last HPV vaccine dose, antibody titers for HPV among baseline dengue-seropositive participants were similar between treatment groups, with between-group titer ratios close to 1 for HPV-6 and 0.8 for HPV-11, -16, and -18. After CYD-TDV dose 3, dengue antibody titers were similar between treatment groups for all serotypes [between-group ratios ranged from 0.783 (serotype 2) to 1.07 (serotype 4)]. No safety concerns were identified.
CONCLUSIONS: The immunogenicity and safety profiles of CYD-TDV and quadrivalent HPV vaccines were unaffected when administered concomitantly or sequentially in dengue-seropositive children.