METHODS: Using measures of discrimination and calibration, we tested the performance of the NL-IHRS (n=100 475) and FC-IHRS (n=107 863) for predicting incident CVD in a community-based, prospective study across seven geographic regions: South Asia, China, Southeast Asia, Middle East, Europe/North America, South America and Africa. CVD was defined as the composite of cardiovascular death, myocardial infarction, stroke, heart failure or coronary revascularisation.
RESULTS: Mean age of the study population was 50.53 (SD 9.79) years and mean follow-up was 4.89 (SD 2.24) years. The NL-IHRS had moderate to good discrimination for incident CVD across geographic regions (concordance statistic (C-statistic) ranging from 0.64 to 0.74), although recalibration was necessary in all regions, which improved its performance in the overall cohort (increase in C-statistic from 0.69 to 0.72, p<0.001). Regional recalibration was also necessary for the FC-IHRS, which also improved its overall discrimination (increase in C-statistic from 0.71 to 0.74, p<0.001). In 85 078 participants with complete data for both scores, discrimination was only modestly better with the FC-IHRS compared with the NL-IHRS (0.74 vs 0.73, p<0.001).
CONCLUSIONS: External validations of the NL-IHRS and FC-IHRS suggest that regionally recalibrated versions of both can be useful for estimating CVD risk across a diverse range of community-based populations. CVD prediction using a non-laboratory score can provide similar accuracy to laboratory-based methods.
MATERIALS AND METHODS: We analysed retrospective data of chest pain patients presenting to ED HUSM from 1st June 2020 till 31st January 2021 based on the patient's history, ECG findings, risk factors, age and troponin level. The patients were stratified as low risk (MHS and HEAR score of 0-3), intermediate risk (MHS and HEAR score of 4-6), and high risk (MHS of 7-10 and HEAR score of 7-8). The association of the MHS and HEAR score with MACE at 6 weeks' time was evaluated using simple logistic regression.
RESULTS: This study included 147 patients in the MHS analysis and 71 patients in HEAR score analysis. The incident rate of MACE in low, intermediate and high risk was 0%,16.3%, and 34.7%, in the MHS group, and 0%, 3.22%, and 6.66% in HEAR score group. The mean difference between MACE and non-MACE in MHS and HEAR score groups was -2.29 (CI: -3.13,1.44, p<0.001) and -2.51(CI: -5.23, 0.21, p=0.070), respectively. There was no significant association between the incidence rate of MACE with modified HEART score (MHS) and HEAR score groups (p>0.95).
CONCLUSION: HEAR score is not feasible to be used as a risk stratification tool for chest pain patients presenting to ED HUSM in comparison to MHS. Further studies are required to validate the results.
METHODS AND ANALYSIS: Hip fracture Accelerated surgical TreaTment And Care tracK (HIP ATTACK) is a multicentre, international, parallel-group randomised controlled trial (RCT). Patients who suffer a hip fracture are randomly allocated to either accelerated medical assessment and surgical repair with a goal of surgery within 6 hours of diagnosis or standard care where a repair typically occurs 24 to 48 hours after diagnosis. The primary outcome of this substudy is the development of AKI within 7 days of randomisation. We anticipate at least 1998 patients will participate in this substudy.
ETHICS AND DISSEMINATION: We obtained ethics approval for additional serum creatinine recordings in consecutive patients enrolled at 70 participating centres. All patients provide consent before randomisation. We anticipate reporting substudy results by 2021.
TRIAL REGISTRATION NUMBER: NCT02027896; Pre-results.
OBJECTIVES: The objectives of this study were to evaluate whether a 1-time measurement of non-HDL-C or LDL-C in a young adult can predict cumulative exposure to these lipids during early adulthood, and to quantify the association between cumulative exposure to non-HDL-C or LDL-C during early adulthood and the risk of ASCVD after age 40 years.
METHODS: We included CARDIA (Coronary Artery Risk Development in Young Adults Study) participants who were free of cardiovascular disease before age 40 years, were not taking lipid-lowering medications, and had ≥3 measurements of LDL-C and non-HDL-C before age 40 years. First, we assessed the ability of a 1-time measurement of LDL-C or non-HDL-C obtained between age 18 and 30 years to predict the quartile of cumulative lipid exposure from ages 18 to 40 years. Second, we assessed the associations between quartiles of cumulative lipid exposure from ages 18 to 40 years with ASCVD events (fatal and nonfatal myocardial infarction and stroke) after age 40 years.
RESULTS: Of 4,104 CARDIA participants who had multiple lipid measurements before and after age 30 years, 3,995 participants met our inclusion criteria and were in the final analysis set. A 1-time measure of non-HDL-C and LDL-C had excellent discrimination for predicting membership in the top or bottom quartiles of cumulative exposure (AUC: 0.93 for the 4 models). The absolute values of non-HDL-C and LDL-C that predicted membership in the top quartiles with the highest simultaneous sensitivity and specificity (highest Youden's Index) were >135 mg/dL for non-HDL-C and >118 mg/dL for LDL-C; the values that predicted membership in the bottom quartiles were <107 mg/dL for non-HDL-C and <96 mg/dL for LDL-C. Individuals in the top quartile of non-HDL-C and LDL-C exposure had demographic-adjusted HRs of 4.6 (95% CI: 2.84-7.29) and 4.0 (95% CI: 2.50-6.33) for ASCVD events after age 40 years, respectively, when compared with each bottom quartile.
CONCLUSIONS: Single measures of non-HDL-C and LDL-C obtained between ages 18 and 30 years are highly predictive of cumulative exposure before age 40 years, which in turn strongly predicts later-life ASCVD events.
MATERIALS AND METHODS: A cross-sectional study was conducted on 543 HCWs from the KOSPEN WOW ("Komuniti Sihat Pembina Negara" or "Healthy Community Builds the Nation-Wellness of Workers") database in three district health offices (DHOs) under the Selangor State Health Department in Malaysia. To estimate the office-based Globorisk model, factors such as age, sex, current smoking status, systolic blood pressure (SBP), and body mass index (BMI) were included. Data analysis employed were Pearson chi-square test, Fisher's exact test, Welch's t-test and binary logistic regression.
RESULTS: Among 543 participants, 453 (83.4%) were female, 439 (80.8%) were Malay with mean (SD) age of 44.4 (4.38). Majority of moderate-high CVDs risk identified among primary HCWs was male with 26 (86.7%), Malay with 25 (83.3%), and non-clinical group with 17 (56.7%). The prevalence of low CVDs risk was 94.5% (95% CI: 92.2-96.2) and 5.5% (95% CI: 3.8-7.8) for the moderate-high risk category. Factors associated with moderate-high CVDs risk were job category with non-clinical group (95% CI: 1.43, 6.85), elevated blood glucose (95% CI: 3.25, 19.41) and anxiety symptom (95% CI: 1.46, 13.86).
CONCLUSION: The KOSPEN WOW platform is effective for screening and guiding implementation of intervention programmes to prevent CVDs.
METHODS: We retrospectively collected and analyzed the clinical data of patients with pathologic diagnosis of PCa from January 1, 2013 to December 31, 2022 in two hospitals in Yangzhou, China. Patients from the Affiliated Hospital of Yangzhou University were divided into a training set and patients from the Affiliated Clinical College of Traditional Chinese Medicine of Yangzhou University were divided into a validation set. Chi-square test, independent sample t-test, and logistic regression were used to screen key risk factors. Receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curves, c-index, calibration curves, and decision curves analysis (DCA) were used for the validation, calibration, clinical benefit assessment, and external validation of nomogram models.
RESULTS: A total of 204 cases were collected from the Affiliated Hospital of Yangzhou University, including 64 cases diagnosed as PCa BM and 50 cases collected from the Affiliated Clinical College of Traditional Chinese Medicine of Yangzhou University, including 12 cases diagnosed as PCa BM. Results showed that history of alcohol consumption, prostate stiffness on Digital rectal examination(DRE), prostate nodules on DRE, FIB, ALP, cTx, and Gleason score were high-risk factors for BM in PCa and nomogram was established. The c-index of the final model was 0.937 (95% CI: 0.899-0.975). And the model was validated by external validation set (c-index: 0.929). The ROC curves and calibration curves showed that the nomogram had good predictive accuracy, and DCA showed that the nomogram had good clinical applicability.
CONCLUSIONS: Our study identified seven high-risk factors for BM in PCa and these factors would provide a theoretical basis for early clinical prevention of PCa BM.
OBJECTIVE: We aimed to assess the link between the descending aorta to left inferior pulmonary vein (Dao-LIPV) distance and the occurrence of triggers and drivers in atrial fibrillation (AF) ablation procedures.
METHODS: Drug-refractory AF patients who underwent first-time index catheter ablation from January 2010 to December 2019 were retrospectively assembled. The Dao-LIPV distance was measured from preablation pulmonary vein computed tomography. Patients were assigned to groups on the basis of the presence of LIPV triggers or drivers. Multivariate logistic regression was used to identify risk factors.
RESULTS: A total of 886 consecutive patients with drug-refractory AF were studied, and 63 (7.1%) patients were identified to have LIPV triggers or drivers. The Dao-LIPV distance had a better predictive performance (area under the curve, 0.70) compared with persistent AF (area under the curve, 0.57). Multivariate logistic regression analysis showed that Dao-LIPV distance ≤2.5 mm (odds ratio, 3.96; 95% CI, 2.15-7.29; P < .001) and persistent AF (odds ratio, 1.73; 95% CI, 1.02-2.94]; P = .044) were independent predictors for the presence of LIPV triggers or drivers. A risk score model was established to predict the probability of LIPV triggers or drivers with persistent AF (10.2%), Dao-LIPV distance ≤2.5 mm (11.4%), and both (15.0%).
CONCLUSION: The proximity of the Dao-LIPV was correlated to the presence of LIPV triggers or drivers. We developed a risk score model indicating that persistent AF and Dao-LIPV distances ≤2.5 mm significantly increase the risk of LIPV triggers or drivers, aiding electrophysiologists in preparing for and performing catheter ablation more effectively.
METHODS: We collected data from 7954 asymptomatic subjects (age, 50-75 y) who received screening colonoscopy examinations at 14 sites in Asia. We randomly assigned 5303 subjects to the derivation cohort and the remaining 2651 to the validation cohort. We collected data from the derivation cohort on age, sex, family history of colorectal cancer, smoking, drinking, body mass index, medical conditions, and use of nonsteroidal anti-inflammatory drugs or aspirin. Associations between the colonoscopic findings of APN and each risk factor were examined using the Pearson χ2 test, and we assigned each participant a risk score (0-15), with scores of 0 to 3 as average risk and scores of 4 or higher as high risk. The scoring system was tested in the validation cohort. We used the Cochran-Armitage test of trend to compare the prevalence of APN among subjects in each group.
RESULTS: In the validation cohort, 79.5% of patients were classified as average risk and 20.5% were classified as high risk. The prevalence of APN in the average-risk group was 1.9% and in the high-risk group was 9.4% (adjusted relative risk, 5.08; 95% CI, 3.38-7.62; P < .001). The score included age (61-70 y, 3; ≥70 y, 4), smoking habits (current/past, 2), family history of colorectal cancer (present in a first-degree relative, 2), and the presence of neoplasia in the distal colorectum (nonadvanced adenoma 5-9 mm, 2; advanced neoplasia, 7). The c-statistic of the score was 0.74 (95% CI, 0.68-0.79), and for distal findings alone was 0.67 (95% CI, 0.60-0.74). The Hosmer-Lemeshow goodness-of-fit test statistic was greater than 0.05, indicating the reliability of the validation set. The number needed to refer was 11 (95% CI, 10-13), and the number needed to screen was 15 (95% CI, 12-17).
CONCLUSIONS: We developed and validated a scoring system to identify persons at risk for APN. Screening participants who undergo flexible sigmoidoscopy screening with a score of 4 points or higher should undergo colonoscopy evaluation.