RESULTS: Sea surface temperatures (SSTs) in the equatorial east Pacific ocean have anomalously increased significantly during July - October 2006 indicating the typical development of El Niño conditions. The persistence of these conditions will lead to extremes in global-scale climate anomalies as has been observed during similar conditions in the past. Positive Outgoing Longwave Radiation (OLR) anomalies, indicative of severe drought conditions, have been observed across all of Indonesia, Malaysia and most of the Philippines, which are usually the first areas to experience ENSO-related impacts. This dryness can be expected to continue, on average, for the remainder of 2006 continuing into the early part of 2007. During the period November 2006 - January 2007 climate forecasts indicate that there is a high probability for above normal rainfall in the central and eastern equatorial Pacific Islands, the Korean Peninsula, the U.S. Gulf Coast and Florida, northern South America and equatorial east Africa. Taking into consideration current observations and climate forecast information, indications are that the following regions are at increased risk for disease outbreaks: Indonesia, Malaysia, Thailand and most of the southeast Asia Islands for increased dengue fever transmission and increased respiratory illness; Coastal Peru, Ecuador, Venezuela, and Colombia for increased risk of malaria; Bangladesh and coastal India for elevated risk of cholera; East Africa for increased risk of a Rift Valley fever outbreak and elevated malaria; southwest USA for increased risk for hantavirus pulmonary syndrome and plague; southern California for increased West Nile virus transmission; and northeast Brazil for increased dengue fever and respiratory illness.

METHODS: Estimates of diabetes prevalence and burden were computed in 204 countries and territories, across 25 age groups, for males and females separately and combined; these estimates comprised lost years of healthy life, measured in disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs; defined as the sum of years of life lost [YLLs] and years lived with disability [YLDs]). We used the Cause of Death Ensemble model (CODEm) approach to estimate deaths due to diabetes, incorporating 25 666 location-years of data from vital registration and verbal autopsy reports in separate total (including both type 1 and type 2 diabetes) and type-specific models. Other forms of diabetes, including gestational and monogenic diabetes, were not explicitly modelled. Total and type 1 diabetes prevalence was estimated by use of a Bayesian meta-regression modelling tool, DisMod-MR 2.1, to analyse 1527 location-years of data from the scientific literature, survey microdata, and insurance claims; type 2 diabetes estimates were computed by subtracting type 1 diabetes from total estimates. Mortality and prevalence estimates, along with standard life expectancy and disability weights, were used to calculate YLLs, YLDs, and DALYs. When appropriate, we extrapolated estimates to a hypothetical population with a standardised age structure to allow comparison in populations with different age structures. We used the comparative risk assessment framework to estimate the risk-attributable type 2 diabetes burden for 16 risk factors falling under risk categories including environmental and occupational factors, tobacco use, high alcohol use, high body-mass index (BMI), dietary factors, and low physical activity. Using a regression framework, we forecast type 1 and type 2 diabetes prevalence through 2050 with Socio-demographic Index (SDI) and high BMI as predictors, respectively.

FINDINGS: In 2021, there were 529 million (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 500-564) people living with diabetes worldwide, and the global age-standardised total diabetes prevalence was 6·1% (5·8-6·5). At the super-region level, the highest age-standardised rates were observed in north Africa and the Middle East (9·3% [8·7-9·9]) and, at the regional level, in Oceania (12·3% [11·5-13·0]). Nationally, Qatar had the world's highest age-specific prevalence of diabetes, at 76·1% (73·1-79·5) in individuals aged 75-79 years. Total diabetes prevalence-especially among older adults-primarily reflects type 2 diabetes, which in 2021 accounted for 96·0% (95·1-96·8) of diabetes cases and 95·4% (94·9-95·9) of diabetes DALYs worldwide. In 2021, 52·2% (25·5-71·8) of global type 2 diabetes DALYs were attributable to high BMI. The contribution of high BMI to type 2 diabetes DALYs rose by 24·3% (18·5-30·4) worldwide between 1990 and 2021. By 2050, more than 1·31 billion (1·22-1·39) people are projected to have diabetes, with expected age-standardised total diabetes prevalence rates greater than 10% in two super-regions: 16·8% (16·1-17·6) in north Africa and the Middle East and 11·3% (10·8-11·9) in Latin America and Caribbean. By 2050, 89 (43·6%) of 204 countries and territories will have an age-standardised rate greater than 10%.

INTERPRETATION: Diabetes remains a substantial public health issue. Type 2 diabetes, which makes up the bulk of diabetes cases, is largely preventable and, in some cases, potentially reversible if identified and managed early in the disease course. However, all evidence indicates that diabetes prevalence is increasing worldwide, primarily due to a rise in obesity caused by multiple factors. Preventing and controlling type 2 diabetes remains an ongoing challenge. It is essential to better understand disparities in risk factor profiles and diabetes burden across populations, to inform strategies to successfully control diabetes risk factors within the context of multiple and complex drivers.

METHODS: In this prospective cross-sectional study, 573 women at 34-37 weeks gestation had an ano-vaginal swab taken and sent for selective culture for GBS. Women were asked about vaginal bleeding, discharge, irritation and candidiasis, antibiotic use during pregnancy, ano-vaginal hygiene practices such as douching and perineal cleansing after toileting, sexual intercourse related activities, and a potential novel factor for GBS carriage, constipation. Maternal basic demographics and obstetric-related characteristics were also collected. Bivariate analyses were performed to identify associates of GBS colonization. All variables with p risk factors for GBS colonization.

METHODS: The study utilized data from the Global Burden of Disease, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study 2019, concentrating on adolescents aged 10 to 24 years with depression. We conducted an in-depth analysis of depression, including its age-standardized prevalence, incidence, and Disability-Adjusted Life Years (DALYs), across diverse demographics such as regions, ages, genders, and socio-demographic indexes, spanning from 1990 to 2019.

RESULTS: The analysis found decreasing trends in the prevalence, incidence, and DALYs of adolescent depression in the WPR between 1990-2019, although some countries like Australia and Malaysia showed increases. Specifically, the prevalence of adolescent depression in the region decreased from 9,347,861.6 cases in 1990 to 5,551,341.1 cases in 2019. The incidence rate declined from 2,508.6 per 100,000 adolescents in 1990 to 1,947.9 per 100,000 in 2019. DALYs decreased from 371.9 per 100,000 in 1990 to ASR 299.7 per 100,000 in 2019.

OBJECTIVES: The aim of the study was to determine the prevalence of dental caries and their association with exposure to environmental tobacco smoke (ETS) among 5- to 10-year-old students attending private and government schools.

MATERIAL AND METHODS: A cross-sectional analytical study was conducted among schoolchildren. Data was collected from the primary caregivers using a pre-tested form to assess the ETS exposure under 5 domains based on history: antenatal exposure; exposure during the index period; exposure in the school neighborhood; exposure in restaurants/roadside stalls; and exposure in bus stops/railway stations. Dental caries was assessed based on the World Health Organization (WHO) guidelines from 1997. The association was reported using prevalence ratios (PRs) (95% confidence interval (CI)).

RESULTS: Data was obtained from 211 schoolchildren attending government (39.8%) and private schools (60.2%). The overall prevalence (95% CI) of dental caries was 49.3% (42.5-56.1%). Among all the risk factors evaluated in the study, exposure to ETS was associated with a significantly increased risk of dental caries. The adjusted prevalence ratio (APR) of ETS exposure varied with the mother's educational status and high sugar exposure, although this was statistically insignificant.

Methods: The study took place in the agricultural setting of Nigeria Edu local government (9° N, 4.9° E) between March 2016 and December 2018. A pre-tested structured questionnaire was administered to obtain information on their occupation and malaria infection. Infection status was confirmed with blood film and microscopic diagnosis of Plasmodium falciparum was based on the presence of ring form or any other blood stages. Individuals who are either critically ill or lived in the community less than 3 months were excluded from the study.

Results: Of the 341 volunteers, 58.1% (52.9% in Shigo and 61.4% in Sista) were infected (parasitaemia density of 1243.7 parasites/μL blood). The prevalence and intensity of infection were higher among farmers (71.3%, 1922.9 parasites/μL blood, P = 0.005), particularly among rice farmers (2991.6 parasites/μL blood) compared to non-farmer participants. The occurrence and parasite density follow the same pattern for sex and age (P < 0.05). Children in the age of 6 to 10 years (AOR: 2.168, CI: 1.63-2.19) and ≥ 11 years (AOR: 3.750, CI: 2.85-3.80) groups were two-and four-fold more likely to be infected with malaria. The analysis revealed that the proximity of bush and stagnant water to the farmer (73.9%, AOR: 3.242, CI: 2.57-3.61) and non-farmer (38.1%, AOR: 1.362, CI: 1.25-1.41) habitations influence malaria transmission.

METHODS: In a cross-sectional study, via a stratified random and convenience sampling method 591 couples who were referred to Mazandaran primary health centers between 2 and 8 weeks postpartum were recruited from March to October 2017. Couples were screened for depressive symptoms using Edinburgh Postnatal Depression Scale (EPDS). Fathers provided information on socio-demographic characteristics, life events, neonatal stressor, perceived stress (Perceived Stress Scale), social support (Multidimensional Scale of Perceived Social Support), and general health status using General Health Questionnaire (GHQ-12) as well. Data was analyzed using multiple logistic regression.

RESULTS: Overall, 93 fathers (15.7%) and 188 mothers (31.8%) reported depressive symptoms above the cut-off EPDS score of 12. In the multiple logistic regression model, older age, maternal depressive symptoms, higher GHQ-12 scores and increased recent life events were related to paternal PPD. A significant inverse association was found between number of children and paternal PPD.

METHODS: We included 23,288 patients with incident stroke admitted between 2005 and 2017 and 68,675 matched nonstroke controls. Information on mental disorders was obtained from medical claims data within the 3 years before the stroke incidence. Cox proportional hazards models considering death as a competing risk event were constructed to estimate the hazard ratio of AP incidence by the end of 2018 associated with stroke and selected mental disorders.

RESULTS: After ≤14 years of follow-up, AP incidence was higher in the patients with stroke than in the controls (11.30/1000 vs. 1.51/1000 person-years), representing a covariate-adjusted subdistribution hazard ratio (sHR) of 3.64, with no significant sex difference. The sHR significantly decreased with increasing age in both sexes. Stratified analyses indicated schizophrenia but not depression or bipolar affective disorder increased the risk of AP in the patients with stroke.

METHODS: The PURE study is a prospective cohort study of 127 594 adults aged 35-70 years from 20 high-income, middle-income, and low-income countries. Diet was assessed at baseline using country-specific validated food frequency questionnaires. The glycaemic index and the glycaemic load were estimated on the basis of the intake of seven categories of carbohydrate-containing foods. Participants were categorised into quintiles of glycaemic index and glycaemic load. The primary outcome was incident type 2 diabetes. Multivariable Cox Frailty models with random intercepts for study centre were used to calculate hazard ratios (HRs).

FINDINGS: During a median follow-up of 11·8 years (IQR 9·0-13·0), 7326 (5·7%) incident cases of type 2 diabetes occurred. In multivariable adjusted analyses, a diet with a higher glycaemic index was significantly associated with a higher risk of diabetes (quintile 5 vs quintile 1; HR 1·15 [95% CI 1·03-1·29]). Participants in the highest quintile of the glycaemic load had a higher risk of incident type 2 diabetes compared with those in the lowest quintile (HR 1·21, 95% CI 1·06-1·37). The glycaemic index was more strongly associated with diabetes among individuals with a higher BMI (quintile 5 vs quintile 1; HR 1·23 [95% CI 1·08-1·41]) than those with a lower BMI (quintile 5 vs quintile 1; 1·10 [0·87-1·39]; p interaction=0·030).

INTERPRETATION: Diets with a high glycaemic index and a high glycaemic load were associated with a higher risk of incident type 2 diabetes in a multinational cohort spanning five continents. Our findings suggest that consuming low glycaemic index and low glycaemic load diets might prevent the development of type 2 diabetes.

METHODS: This study aimed to estimate the seroprevalence of anti-dengue and anti-chikungunya antibodies among urban refugees in the Klang Valley, Malaysia, and identify associated risk factors.

RESULTS: High seroprevalence of anti-dengue immunoglobulin G (IgG) and IgM (60.0% [confidence interval {CI} 55.39 to 64.48] and 9.2% [CI 6.77 to 12.25], respectively) were observed among refugees >18 years of age (χ22=11.720, p=0.003), Kachin ethnicity (χ28=72.253, p<0.001), without formal education (χ21=3.856, p=0.050), homes near waste disposal sites (χ21=10.378, p=0.001) and refugees who have experienced flooding (χ21=5.460, p=0.019). Meanwhile, the overall seroprevalence of anti-chikungunya IgG and IgM was 9.7% (CI 7.15 to 12.73) and 10.8% (CI 8.09 to 13.93), respectively, with ages 12-18 years (χ22=6.075, p=0.048), Rohingya ethnicity (χ28=31.631, p<0.001) and homes close to waste disposal sites (χ21=3.912, p=0.048) being significant risk factors. Results showed a link to poor environmental living conditions, with an increase in the vector population with higher availability of breeding sites and thus exposure to dengue and chikungunya virus.

METHODS: TRIPLE-A-Stiffness, an international multicentre prospective longitudinal study, enrolled >2000 subjects ≥40 years old at 32 centres from 18 European countries. Of these, 1250 subjects (55% women) were followed for a median of 3.82 (2.81-4.69) years.

FINDINGS: Unadjusted cumulative incidence rates of outcomes according to CAVI stratification were higher in highest stratum (CAVI > 9). Cox regression with adjustment for age, sex, and cardiovascular risk factors revealed that CAVI was associated with increased cardiovascular morbimortality (HR 1.25 per 1 increase; 95% confidence interval, CI: 1.03-1.51) and all-cause mortality (HR 1.37 per 1 increase; 95% CI: 1.10-1.70) risk in subjects ≥60 years. In ROC analyses, CAVI optimal threshold was 9.25 (c-index 0.598; 0.542-0.654) and 8.30 (c-index 0.565; 0.512-0.618) in subjects ≥ or <60 years, respectively, to predict increased CV morbimortality. Finally, age, mean arterial blood pressure, anti-diabetic and lipid-lowering treatment were independent predictors of yearly CAVI progression adjusted for baseline CAVI.

INTERPRETATION: The present study identified additional value for CAVI to predict outcomes after adjustment for CV risk factors, in particular for subjects ≥60 years. CAVI progression may represent a modifiable risk factor by treatments.

METHODS: Using data from the Global Burden of Diseases (GBD), Injuries, and Risk Factors Study 2019, we assessed the age-standardized prevalence, incidence, mortality, and disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) of both asthma and AD from 1990 to 2019, stratified by geographic region, age, sex, and socio-demographic index (SDI). DALYs were calculated as the sum of years lived with disability and years of life lost to premature mortality. Additionally, the disease burden of asthma attributable to high body mass index, occupational asthmagens, and smoking was described.

RESULTS: In 2019, there were a total of 262 million [95% uncertainty interval (UI): 224-309 million] cases of asthma and 171 million [95% UI: 165-178 million] total cases of AD globally; age-standardized prevalence rates were 3416 [95% UI: 2899-4066] and 2277 [95% UI: 2192-2369] per 100,000 population for asthma and AD, respectively, a 24.1% [95% UI: -27.2 to -20.8] decrease for asthma and a 4.3% [95% UI: 3.8-4.8] decrease for AD compared to baseline in 1990. Both asthma and AD had similar trends according to age, with age-specific prevalence rates peaking at age 5-9 years and rising again in adulthood. The prevalence and incidence of asthma and AD were both higher for individuals with higher SDI; however, mortality and DALYs rates of individuals with asthma had a reverse trend, with higher mortality and DALYs rates in those in the lower SDI quintiles. Of the three risk factors, high body mass index contributed to the highest DALYs and deaths due to asthma, accounting for a total of 3.65 million [95% UI: 2.14-5.60 million] asthma DALYs and 75,377 [95% UI: 40,615-122,841] asthma deaths.