METHODS: An age-structured multi-state Markov model was developed to simulate the natural history of HCV infection. We tested three historical incidence scenarios that would give rise to the estimated prevalence in 2009, and calculated the incidence of cirrhosis, end-stage liver disease, and death, and disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) under each scenario, to the year 2039. In the baseline scenario, current antiviral treatment levels were extended from 2014 to the end of the simulation period. To estimate the disease burden averted under current sustained virological response rates and treatment levels, the baseline scenario was compared to a counterfactual scenario in which no past or future treatment is assumed.
RESULTS: In the baseline scenario, the projected disease burden for the year 2039 is 94,900 DALYs/year (95% credible interval (CrI): 77,100 to 124,500), with 2,002 (95% CrI: 1340 to 3040) and 540 (95% CrI: 251 to 1,030) individuals predicted to develop decompensated cirrhosis and hepatocellular carcinoma, respectively, in that year. Although current treatment practice is estimated to avert a cumulative total of 2,200 deaths from DC or HCC, a cumulative total of 63,900 HCV-related deaths is projected by 2039.
CONCLUSIONS: The HCV-related disease burden is already high and is forecast to rise steeply over the coming decades under current levels of antiviral treatment. Increased governmental resources to improve HCV screening and treatment rates and to reduce transmission are essential to address the high projected HCV disease burden in Malaysia.
METHODS: Nevirapine population pharmacokinetics was modelled with Pmetrics. A total of 708 observations from 112 patients were included in the model building and validation analysis. Evaluation of the model was based on a visual inspection of observed versus predicted (population and individual) concentrations and plots weighted residual error versus concentrations. Accuracy and robustness of the model were evaluated by visual predictive check (VPC). The median parameters' estimates obtained from the final model were used to predict individual nevirapine plasma area-under-curve (AUC) in the validation dataset. The Bland-Altman plot was used to compare the AUC predicted with trapezoidal AUC.
RESULTS: The median nevirapine clearance was of 2.92 L/h, the median rate of absorption was 2.55/h and the volume of distribution was 78.23 L. Nevirapine pharmacokinetics were best described by one-compartmental with first-order absorption model and a lag-time. Weighted residuals for the model selected were homogenously distributed over the concentration and time range. The developed model adequately estimated AUC.
CONCLUSIONS: In conclusion, a model to describe the pharmacokinetics of nevirapine was developed. The developed model adequately describes nevirapine population pharmacokinetics in HIV-infected patients in Malaysia.
METHODS: Patients were recruited from four hospitals. Clinical data were recorded and blood samples were taken for PK and genetic studies. Population PK parameters were estimated by nonlinear mixed-effects modelling in Monolix®. Models were evaluated using the difference in objective function value, goodness-of-fit plots, visual predictive check and bootstrap analysis. Monte Carlo simulation was conducted to evaluate different dosing regimens for IVIG.
RESULTS: A total of 30 blood samples were analysed from 10 patients. The immunoglobulin G concentration data were best described by a one-compartment model with linear elimination. The final model included both volume of distribution (Vd) and clearance (CL) based on patient's individual weight. Goodness-of-fit plots indicated that the model fit the data adequately, with minor model mis-specification. Genetic polymorphism of the FcRn gene and the presence of bronchiectasis did not affect the PK of IVIG. Simulation showed that 3-4-weekly dosing intervals were sufficient to maintain IgG levels of 5 g L-1 , with more frequent intervals needed to achieve higher trough levels.
CONCLUSIONS: Body weight significantly affects the PK parameters of IVIG. Genetic and other clinical factors investigated did not affect the disposition of IVIG.
Methods: A search of publications for population pharmacokinetic analyses of clozapine either in healthy volunteers or patients from inception to April 2019 was conducted in PubMed and SCOPUS databases. Reviews, methodology articles, in vitro and animal studies, and noncompartmental analysis were excluded.
Results: Twelve studies were included in this review. Clozapine pharmacokinetics was described as one-compartment with first-order absorption and elimination in most of the studies. Significant interindividual variations of clozapine pharmacokinetic parameters were found in most of the included studies. Age, sex, smoking status, and cytochrome P450 1A2 were found to be the most common identified covariates affecting these parameters. External validation was only performed in one study to determine the predictive performance of the models.
Conclusions: Large pharmacokinetic variability remains despite the inclusion of several covariates. This can be improved by including other potential factors such as genetic polymorphisms, metabolic factors, and significant drug-drug interactions in a well-designed population pharmacokinetic model in the future, taking into account the incorporation of larger sample size and more stringent sampling strategy. External validation should also be performed to the previously published models to compare their predictive performances.
METHODS: The MEDLINE and EMBASE databases, as well as the reference lists of all articles, were searched to identify population PK models of tacrolimus developed from adult transplant recipients published from the inception of the databases to 29 February 2020.
RESULTS: Of the 69 studies identified, 55% were developed from kidney transplant recipients and 30% from liver transplant recipients. Most studies (91%) investigated the oral immediate-release formulation of tacrolimus. Few studies (17%) explained the effect of drug-drug interactions on tacrolimus PK. Only 35% of the studies performed an external evaluation to assess the generalizability of the models. Studies related variability in tacrolimus whole blood clearance among transplant recipients to either cytochrome P450 (CYP) 3A5 genotype (41%), days post-transplant (30%), or hematocrit (29%). Variability in the central volume of distribution was mainly explained by body weight (20% of studies).
CONCLUSION: The effect of clinically significant drug-drug interactions and different formulations and brands of tacrolimus should be considered for any future tacrolimus population PK model development. Further work is required to assess the generalizability of existing models and identify key factors that influence both initial and maintenance doses of tacrolimus, particularly in heart and lung transplant recipients.