DESIGN AND METHODS: The model is an improvement of the susceptible, infected, recovery, and death (SIRD) compartmental model. The epidemiological parameters of the infection, recovery, and death rates were formulated as time dependent piecewise functions by incorporating the control measures of lockdown, social distancing, quarantine, lockdown lifting time and the percentage of people who abide by the rules. An improved SIRD model was solved via the 4th order Runge-Kutta (RK4) method and 14 unknown parameters were estimated by using Nelder-Mead algorithm and pattern-search technique. The publicly available data for COVID-19 outbreak in Malaysia was used to validate the performance of the model. The GUI-based SIRD model was developed to simulate the number of active cases of COVID-19 over time by considering movement control order (MCO) lifted date and the percentage of people who abide the rules.
RESULTS: The simulator showed that the improved SIRD model adequately fitted Malaysia COVID-19 data indicated by low values of root mean square error (RMSE) as compared to other existing models. The higher the percentage of people following the SOP, the lower the spread of disease. Another key point is that the later the lifting time after the lockdown, the lower the spread of disease.
CONCLUSIONS: These findings highlight the importance of the society to obey the intervention measures in preventing the spread of the COVID-19 disease.
OBJECTIVE: This paper outlines the protocol for a study to determine the association of vitamin D status and VDR sequence variants among Malaysian pregnant women with HDP.
METHODS: This prospective study consists of two phases. The first phase is a cross-sectional study that will entail gathering medical records, a questionnaire survey, and laboratory testing for vitamin D status, with a planned recruitment of 414 pregnant women. The questionnaire will be utilized to assess the risk factors for vitamin D deficiency. The vitamin D status will be obtained from measurement of the vitamin D (25-hydroxyvitamin D3) level in the blood. The second phase is a case-control study involving a Malay ethnic cohort with vitamin D deficiency. Participants will be divided into two groups with and without HDP (n=150 per group). Genomic DNA will be extracted from the peripheral blood monocytes of participants using the Qiagen DNA blood kit, and VDR sequence variants will be determined using polymerase chain reaction-high-resolution melting (PCR-HRM) analysis. Sanger sequencing will then be used to sequence randomly selected samples corresponding to each identified variant to validate our PCR-HRM results. The VDR genotype and mutation frequencies of BsmI, ApaI, TaqI, and FokI will be statistically analyzed to evaluate their relationships with developing HDP.
RESULTS: As of December 2023, 340 subjects have been recruited for the phase 1 study, 63% of whom were determined to have vitamin D deficiency. In the phase 2 study, 50 and 22 subjects have been recruited from the control and case groups, respectively. Recruitment is expected to be completed by March 2024 and all analyses should be completed by August 2024.
CONCLUSIONS: The outcome of the study will identify the nonmodifiable genetic components contributing to developing vitamin D deficiency leading to HDP. This will in turn enable gaining a better understanding of the contribution of genetic variability to the development of HDP, thus providing more evidence for a need of customized vitamin D supplementation during pregnancy according to the individual variability in the response to vitamin D intake.
TRIAL REGISTRATION: ClinicalTrials.gov NCT05659173; https://clinicaltrials.gov/study/NCT05659173.
INTERNATIONAL REGISTERED REPORT IDENTIFIER (IRRID): DERR1-10.2196/53722.