Population 70 million: a consideration of health aspects

A 70 million population for Malaysia by the year 2010 has been officially targetted for in the Mid-Term Review of the Fourth Malaysia Plan, 1981-1985. In response to this, a preliminary investigation was undertaken into the health aspects of population growth. For this exercise, infant mortality rate was used as the health indicator. From trends seen vis-a-vis population growth, it appears that thus far, population growth has not been associated negatively with health (as measured by IMR). In recognition of the relevance of the medical, economic and education factors to health, trends in Malaysia's population ratio, per capita GNP and rates of school enrolment were also drawn; the selection of these as proxies being based on completeness of time-serial records. Although statistical regressions established the high correlation between medical doctors.population ratio and school enrolment rate with IMR, the limitations in this analysis did not permit any reliable inferences. In view of the difficulties in projections of trends, a comparison of health and related variables was carried out for several countries with high populations as near to 70 million as were available. The characteristics associated with low mortality and high life expectancy (health indices) were identified as low population growth, high literacy and high per capita GNP; this being stated with explicit qualifications. Other determinants of health were also discussed in brief, and the need for careful planning in the distribution of human and material resources was noted.