METHODS: We assembled 1155 geographical records of yellow fever virus infection in people from 1970 to 2016. We used a Poisson point process boosted regression tree model that explicitly incorporated environmental and biological explanatory covariates, vaccination coverage, and spatial variability in disease reporting rates to predict the relative risk of apparent yellow fever virus infection at a 5 × 5 km resolution across all risk zones (47 countries across the Americas and Africa). We also used the fitted model to predict the receptivity of areas outside at-risk zones to the introduction or reintroduction of yellow fever transmission. By use of previously published estimates of annual national case numbers, we used the model to map subnational variation in incidence of yellow fever across at-risk countries and to estimate the number of cases averted by vaccination worldwide.
FINDINGS: Substantial international and subnational spatial variation exists in relative risk and incidence of yellow fever as well as varied success of vaccination in reducing incidence in several high-risk regions, including Brazil, Cameroon, and Togo. Areas with the highest predicted average annual case numbers include large parts of Nigeria, the Democratic Republic of the Congo, and South Sudan, where vaccination coverage in 2016 was estimated to be substantially less than the recommended threshold to prevent outbreaks. Overall, we estimated that vaccination coverage levels achieved by 2016 avert between 94 336 and 118 500 cases of yellow fever annually within risk zones, on the basis of conservative and optimistic vaccination scenarios. The areas outside at-risk regions with predicted high receptivity to yellow fever transmission (eg, parts of Malaysia, Indonesia, and Thailand) were less extensive than the distribution of the main urban vector, A aegypti, with low receptivity to yellow fever transmission in southern China, where A aegypti is known to occur.
INTERPRETATION: Our results provide the evidence base for targeting vaccination campaigns within risk zones, as well as emphasising their high effectiveness. Our study highlights areas where public health authorities should be most vigilant for potential spread or importation events.
FUNDING: Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.
OBJECTIVE: To analyze the total and risk-attributable burden of lip and oral cavity cancer (LOC) and other pharyngeal cancer (OPC) for 204 countries and territories and by Socio-demographic Index (SDI) using 2019 Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors (GBD) Study estimates.
EVIDENCE REVIEW: The incidence, mortality, and disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) due to LOC and OPC from 1990 to 2019 were estimated using GBD 2019 methods. The GBD 2019 comparative risk assessment framework was used to estimate the proportion of deaths and DALYs for LOC and OPC attributable to smoking, tobacco, and alcohol consumption in 2019.
FINDINGS: In 2019, 370 000 (95% uncertainty interval [UI], 338 000-401 000) cases and 199 000 (95% UI, 181 000-217 000) deaths for LOC and 167 000 (95% UI, 153 000-180 000) cases and 114 000 (95% UI, 103 000-126 000) deaths for OPC were estimated to occur globally, contributing 5.5 million (95% UI, 5.0-6.0 million) and 3.2 million (95% UI, 2.9-3.6 million) DALYs, respectively. From 1990 to 2019, low-middle and low SDI regions consistently showed the highest age-standardized mortality rates due to LOC and OPC, while the high SDI strata exhibited age-standardized incidence rates decreasing for LOC and increasing for OPC. Globally in 2019, smoking had the greatest contribution to risk-attributable OPC deaths for both sexes (55.8% [95% UI, 49.2%-62.0%] of all OPC deaths in male individuals and 17.4% [95% UI, 13.8%-21.2%] of all OPC deaths in female individuals). Smoking and alcohol both contributed to substantial LOC deaths globally among male individuals (42.3% [95% UI, 35.2%-48.6%] and 40.2% [95% UI, 33.3%-46.8%] of all risk-attributable cancer deaths, respectively), while chewing tobacco contributed to the greatest attributable LOC deaths among female individuals (27.6% [95% UI, 21.5%-33.8%]), driven by high risk-attributable burden in South and Southeast Asia.
CONCLUSIONS AND RELEVANCE: In this systematic analysis, disparities in LOC and OPC burden existed across the SDI spectrum, and a considerable percentage of burden was attributable to tobacco and alcohol use. These estimates can contribute to an understanding of the distribution and disparities in LOC and OPC burden globally and support cancer control planning efforts.
OBJECTIVE: The purpose of this study was to evaluate the psychometric properties of the IIFAS among a multiethnic population in Singapore.
METHODS: A cross-sectional research design was used on a sample of 417 antenatal women. The internal consistency and stability of the IIFAS were evaluated using Cronbach's α and test-retest reliability. Known-group comparisons discriminated certain group differences in a predictable way. A series of exploratory factor analyses (EFAs) was conducted to test the factor structure of the IIFAS using the maximum likelihood and principal axis factoring. The number of factors was selected according to theoretical and statistical considerations. A confirmatory factor analysis (CFA) was further performed to validate the factor structure constructed in the prior EFA.
RESULTS: The IIFAS had a Cronbach's α and Pearson correlation of 0.79 and 0.85, respectively. The known-group comparisons among certain groups were supported. The EFA results showed that the 3-factor structure produced the most interpretable and theoretical sense. A second-order CFA was conducted to confirm the construct dimensionality of the 15-item IIFAS, with satisfactory fit indices found.
CONCLUSION: The 15-item IIFAS is a psychometrically sound measurement tool that health care professionals can use to understand the diverse infant feeding attitudes and knowledge among different ethnic groups in order to provide breastfeeding interventions that are culturally sensitive.
METHOD: Four curcumin analogues were synthesized. These analogues and curcumin were evaluated for their BBB permeability in the parallel artificial membrane permeability assay. The transgenic Caenorhabditis elegansGMC101 that expresses human Aβ1-42 was treated with the compounds to evaluate their ability to delay Aβ-induced paralysis. Expression of skn-1mRNA was examined on nematodes treated with selected efficacious compounds. In vitro Aβ aggregation in the presence of the compounds was performed.
KEY FINDINGS: The four analogues showed improved BBB permeability vs curcumin in the PAMPA with the hemi-analogue C4 having the highest permeability coefficient. At 100 μm, analogues C1 and C4 as well as curcumin significantly prolonged the survival of the nematodes protecting against Aβ toxicity. However, only curcumin and C4 showed protection at lower concentrations. skn-1mRNA was significantly elevated in nematodes treated with curcumin and C4 indicating SKN-1/Nrf activation as a possible mode of action.
CONCLUSIONS: Analogue C4 provides a new lead for the development of a curcumin-based compound for protection against Aβ toxicity with an improved BBB permeability.