METHODS: To estimate incidence and mortality for HIV, we used the UNAIDS Spectrum model appropriately modified based on a systematic review of available studies of mortality with and without antiretroviral therapy (ART). For concentrated epidemics, we calibrated Spectrum models to fit vital registration data corrected for misclassification of HIV deaths. In generalised epidemics, we minimised a loss function to select epidemic curves most consistent with prevalence data and demographic data for all-cause mortality. We analysed counterfactual scenarios for HIV to assess years of life saved through prevention of mother-to-child transmission (PMTCT) and ART. For tuberculosis, we analysed vital registration and verbal autopsy data to estimate mortality using cause of death ensemble modelling. We analysed data for corrected case-notifications, expert opinions on the case-detection rate, prevalence surveys, and estimated cause-specific mortality using Bayesian meta-regression to generate consistent trends in all parameters. We analysed malaria mortality and incidence using an updated cause of death database, a systematic analysis of verbal autopsy validation studies for malaria, and recent studies (2010-13) of incidence, drug resistance, and coverage of insecticide-treated bednets.
FINDINGS: Globally in 2013, there were 1·8 million new HIV infections (95% uncertainty interval 1·7 million to 2·1 million), 29·2 million prevalent HIV cases (28·1 to 31·7), and 1·3 million HIV deaths (1·3 to 1·5). At the peak of the epidemic in 2005, HIV caused 1·7 million deaths (1·6 million to 1·9 million). Concentrated epidemics in Latin America and eastern Europe are substantially smaller than previously estimated. Through interventions including PMTCT and ART, 19·1 million life-years (16·6 million to 21·5 million) have been saved, 70·3% (65·4 to 76·1) in developing countries. From 2000 to 2011, the ratio of development assistance for health for HIV to years of life saved through intervention was US$4498 in developing countries. Including in HIV-positive individuals, all-form tuberculosis incidence was 7·5 million (7·4 million to 7·7 million), prevalence was 11·9 million (11·6 million to 12·2 million), and number of deaths was 1·4 million (1·3 million to 1·5 million) in 2013. In the same year and in only individuals who were HIV-negative, all-form tuberculosis incidence was 7·1 million (6·9 million to 7·3 million), prevalence was 11·2 million (10·8 million to 11·6 million), and number of deaths was 1·3 million (1·2 million to 1·4 million). Annualised rates of change (ARC) for incidence, prevalence, and death became negative after 2000. Tuberculosis in HIV-negative individuals disproportionately occurs in men and boys (versus women and girls); 64·0% of cases (63·6 to 64·3) and 64·7% of deaths (60·8 to 70·3). Globally, malaria cases and deaths grew rapidly from 1990 reaching a peak of 232 million cases (143 million to 387 million) in 2003 and 1·2 million deaths (1·1 million to 1·4 million) in 2004. Since 2004, child deaths from malaria in sub-Saharan Africa have decreased by 31·5% (15·7 to 44·1). Outside of Africa, malaria mortality has been steadily decreasing since 1990.
INTERPRETATION: Our estimates of the number of people living with HIV are 18·7% smaller than UNAIDS's estimates in 2012. The number of people living with malaria is larger than estimated by WHO. The number of people living with HIV, tuberculosis, or malaria have all decreased since 2000. At the global level, upward trends for malaria and HIV deaths have been reversed and declines in tuberculosis deaths have accelerated. 101 countries (74 of which are developing) still have increasing HIV incidence. Substantial progress since the Millennium Declaration is an encouraging sign of the effect of global action.
FUNDING: Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.
IMPORTANCE: EV-A71 is one of many viruses that cause HFMD, a common syndrome that largely affects infants and children. HFMD usually causes only mild illness with no long-term consequences. Occasionally, however, severe infection may arise, especially in very young children, causing neurological complications and even death. EV-A71 is highly contagious and is associated with the most severe HFMD cases, with large and frequent epidemics of the virus recorded worldwide. Although major advances have been made in the development of a potential EV-A71 vaccine, there is no current prevention and little is known about the patterns and dynamics of EV-A71 spread. In this study, we utilize full-length genome sequence data obtained from HFMD patients in Viet Nam, a geographical region where the disease has been endemic since 2003, to characterize the phylodynamics of this important emerging virus.
METHODS: This was an observational study reviewing all confirmed ZIKV cases detected in Malaysia through the ZIKV clinical surveillance and Flavivirus laboratory surveillance between June 2015 and December 2017. All basic demographic characteristics, co-morbidities, clinical, laboratory and outcome data of the confirmed ZIKV cases were collected from the source documents.
RESULTS: Only eight out of 4043 cases tested positive for ZIKV infection during that period. The median age of infected patients was 48.6 years and majority was Chinese. Two of the subjects were pregnant. The median interval between the onset of disease and the first detection of ZIKV Ribonucleic Acid (RNA) in body fluid was 3 days. Six cases had ZIKV RNA detected in both serum and urine samples. Phylogenetic analysis suggests that isolates from the 7 cases of ZIKV infection came from two clusters, both of which were local circulating strains.
CONCLUSION: Despite similar ecological background characteristics, Malaysia was not as affected by the recent ZIKV outbreak compared to Brazil and Singapore. This could be related to pre-existing immunity against ZIKV in this population, which developed after the first introduction of the ZIKV in Malaysia decades ago. A serosurvey to determine the seroprevalence of ZIKV in Malaysia was carried out in 2017. The differences in circulating ZIKV strains could be another reason as to why Malaysia seemed to be protected from an outbreak.
METHODS: We report the establishment of an immunocompetent wild type strain 129 (wt-129) mouse model, which can be cross-species infected with human EV-A71 clinical isolates via an intraperitoneal route.
RESULTS: One intriguing disease phenotype of this new model is the development of characteristic "White-Jade" patches in the muscle, which lost sporadically the normal pink color of uninfected muscle. Viral VP1 protein and massive leukocyte infiltration were detected in muscles with or without white-jades. We demonstrated further that hypoxia is a general phenomenon associated with white-jades in both immunocompetent and immunodeficient mouse models. Therefore, hypoxia appears to be a feature intrinsic to EV-A71 infection, irrespective of its host's immunogenetic background. To date, no effective treatment for EV-A71 is available. Here, using this new wt-129 mouse model, we showed that timely treatment with compound R837 (a TLR7 immune modulator) via oral or intraperitoneal routes, rescued the hypoxia, limb paralysis, and death at a high therapeutic efficacy.
CONCLUSIONS: In this new immunocompetent mouse 129 model, we observed an unexpected white-jade phenotype and its associated hypoxia. The successful treatment with TLR7 immune modulators via an oral route, provide us a new research direction for EV-A71 basic science and translational research. It remains an open issue whether R837 or its related compounds, will be a promising drug candidate in clinical trials in EV-A71 endemic or epidemic areas in the future.
METHODS: We analysed incident HIV diagnoses from 2015-2018 and mortality trends from 2016-2018 for three age groups: 1) 15-24 years; 2) 25-49 years; and 3) ≥50 years. AIDS was defined as CD4<200cells/mL. Mortality was defined as deaths per 1000 patients newly diagnosed with HIV within the same calendar year. Mortality rates were calculated for 2016, 2017, and 2018, compared to age-matched general population rates, and all-cause standardized mortality ratios (SMRs) were calculated.
RESULTS: From 2015-2018, the proportion of OPWH annually diagnosed with HIV increased from 11.2% to 14.9% (p<0.01). At the time of diagnosis, OPWH were also significantly (p<0.01) more likely to have AIDS (43.8%) than those aged 25-49 years (29.5%) and 15-24 years (13.3%). Newly diagnosed OPWH had the same-year mortality ranging from 3 to 8 times higher than age-matched groups in the Ukrainian general population.
CONCLUSIONS: These findings suggest a reassessment of HIV testing, prevention and treatment strategies in Ukraine is needed to bring OPWH into focus. OPWH are more likely to present with late-stage HIV and have higher mortality rates. Re-designing testing practices is especially crucial since OPWH are absent from targeted testing programs and are increasingly diagnosed as they present with AIDS-defining symptoms. New strategies for linkage and treatment programs should reflect the distinct needs of this target population.