Displaying publications 261 - 280 of 442 in total

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  1. Haagsma JA, James SL, Castle CD, Dingels ZV, Fox JT, Hamilton EB, et al.
    Inj Prev, 2020 Oct;26(Supp 1):i12-i26.
    PMID: 31915273 DOI: 10.1136/injuryprev-2019-043296
    BACKGROUND: The epidemiological transition of non-communicable diseases replacing infectious diseases as the main contributors to disease burden has been well documented in global health literature. Less focus, however, has been given to the relationship between sociodemographic changes and injury. The aim of this study was to examine the association between disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) from injury for 195 countries and territories at different levels along the development spectrum between 1990 and 2017 based on the Global Burden of Disease (GBD) 2017 estimates.

    METHODS: Injury mortality was estimated using the GBD mortality database, corrections for garbage coding and CODEm-the cause of death ensemble modelling tool. Morbidity estimation was based on surveys and inpatient and outpatient data sets for 30 cause-of-injury with 47 nature-of-injury categories each. The Socio-demographic Index (SDI) is a composite indicator that includes lagged income per capita, average educational attainment over age 15 years and total fertility rate.

    RESULTS: For many causes of injury, age-standardised DALY rates declined with increasing SDI, although road injury, interpersonal violence and self-harm did not follow this pattern. Particularly for self-harm opposing patterns were observed in regions with similar SDI levels. For road injuries, this effect was less pronounced.

    CONCLUSIONS: The overall global pattern is that of declining injury burden with increasing SDI. However, not all injuries follow this pattern, which suggests multiple underlying mechanisms influencing injury DALYs. There is a need for a detailed understanding of these patterns to help to inform national and global efforts to address injury-related health outcomes across the development spectrum.

    Matched MeSH terms: Global Health
  2. Burstein R, Henry NJ, Collison ML, Marczak LB, Sligar A, Watson S, et al.
    Nature, 2019 Oct;574(7778):353-358.
    PMID: 31619795 DOI: 10.1038/s41586-019-1545-0
    Since 2000, many countries have achieved considerable success in improving child survival, but localized progress remains unclear. To inform efforts towards United Nations Sustainable Development Goal 3.2-to end preventable child deaths by 2030-we need consistently estimated data at the subnational level regarding child mortality rates and trends. Here we quantified, for the period 2000-2017, the subnational variation in mortality rates and number of deaths of neonates, infants and children under 5 years of age within 99 low- and middle-income countries using a geostatistical survival model. We estimated that 32% of children under 5 in these countries lived in districts that had attained rates of 25 or fewer child deaths per 1,000 live births by 2017, and that 58% of child deaths between 2000 and 2017 in these countries could have been averted in the absence of geographical inequality. This study enables the identification of high-mortality clusters, patterns of progress and geographical inequalities to inform appropriate investments and implementations that will help to improve the health of all populations.
    Matched MeSH terms: Global Health
  3. Banaei M, Azizi M, Moridi A, Dashti S, Yabandeh AP, Roozbeh N
    Syst Rev, 2019 07 05;8(1):161.
    PMID: 31277721 DOI: 10.1186/s13643-019-1079-4
    BACKGROUND: Sexual dysfunction refers to a chain of psychiatric, individual, and couple's experiences that manifests itself as a dysfunction in sexual desire, sexual arousal, orgasm, and pain during intercourse. The aim of this systematic review will be to assess the sexual dysfunction and determine the relevant factors to sexual dysfunction during pregnancy and postpartum.

    METHODS AND ANALYSIS: All observational studies, including descriptive, descriptive-analytic, case-control, and cohort studies published between 1990 and 2019, will be included in the study. Review articles, case studies, case reports, letter to editors, pilot studies, and editorial will be excluded from the study. The search will be conducted in the Cochrane Central Register, MEDLINE, Google Scholar, EMBASE, ProQuest, Scopus, WOS, and CINAHL databases. Eligible studies should assess at least one of the sexual dysfunction symptoms in pregnant women or in the first year postpartum. Quality assessment of studies will be performed by two authors independently based on the NOS checklist. This checklist is designed to assess the quality of observational studies. Data will be analyzed using Stata software ver. 11. Considering that the index investigated in the present study will be the level of sexual disorder, standard error will be calculated for each study using binomial distribution. The heterogeneity level will be investigated using Cochran's Q statistic and I2 index in a chi-square test at a significance level of 1.1. Predictable limitations of this study included a small number and unacceptable quality of studies.

    DISCUSSION: This systematic review addresses the factors associated with sexual dysfunction during pregnancy and postpartum. Considering the high prevalence of sexual dysfunction among women, the treatment of this problem has been highly sought after by the World Health Organization in recent years. The results of this study can help discover new strategies by introducing factors affecting women's sexual dysfunction, thereby eliminating or diminishing these factors, and play an important role in improving the quality of life of women during pregnancy and postpartum periods.

    SYSTEMATIC REVIEW REGISTRATION: PROSPERO CRD42018083554.

    Matched MeSH terms: Global Health
  4. Hua Z, Wang S, Yuan X
    J Affect Disord, 2024 Apr 01;350:831-837.
    PMID: 38242215 DOI: 10.1016/j.jad.2024.01.009
    BACKGROUND: The objective of this study was to provide a comprehensive analysis of the spatial distribution and temporal trends in the age-standardized incidence rates (ASIRs) of depression in adolescents aged 10-24 worldwide.

    METHODS: Data from the Global Burden of Disease Study (GBD) 2019 were analyzed, adopting Sawyer's broad definition of adolescence encompassing ages 10 to 24. Estimated annual percentage changes (EAPCs) were used to assess temporal trends.

    RESULTS: Globally, from 1990 to 2019, there was a decrease in the ASIR of depression in adolescents (EAPC = -0.23). Notably, this decrease was more pronounced in female adolescents compared to their male counterparts (EAPC = -0.12 and - 0.29, respectively). Conversely, high Sociodemographic Index (SDI) regions experienced a significant increase in the ASIR of depression among adolescents (EAPC = 0.87). Furthermore, it is worth mentioning that individuals aged 20-24 exhibited the highest incidence rate for depression followed by those aged 15-19 and then those aged 10-14. The largest increases in the ASIRs of depression occurred in High-income North America (EAPC = 1.19) and Malaysia (EAPC = 2.4), respectively.

    LIMITATIONS: Mathematical models were used to reconstruct and adjust data of different qualities, which might have introduced bias.

    CONCLUSIONS: The global burden of disease for depression among adolescents aged 10-24 years declined from 1990 to 2019. Special attention must be paid to older adolescents and areas with higher SDIs.

    Matched MeSH terms: Global Health
  5. Luo J, Tang L, Kong X, Li Y
    Asian J Psychiatr, 2024 Feb;92:103905.
    PMID: 38262303 DOI: 10.1016/j.ajp.2023.103905
    BACKGROUND: Depressive disorders (DD) including dysthymia and major depressive disorder (MDD) are common among adolescents and young adults. However, global trends in DD burden remain unclear.

    METHODS: We analysed data from the Global Burden of Disease 2019 study on incidence, prevalence, disability-adjusted life years (DALYs), and mortality due to DD from 1990 to 2019 at global, regional and national levels.

    RESULTS: Globally, dysthymia incidence increased notably in females, older age groups, and lower-middle income countries from 1990 to 2019. In contrast, MDD incidence decreased slightly over this period except in high-income North America. Females and middle-income countries had the highest dysthymia burden while North America had the highest MDD incidence and DALYs. Oman and Malaysia experienced largest increases in dysthymia and MDD burden respectively.

    CONCLUSION: Despite certain global indicators suggesting a leveling off or decrease, it's clear that depressive disorders continue to be a significant and increasing issue, particularly among women, teenagers, and young adults. Differences between regions and countries indicate that specific interventions aimed at addressing economic inequalities, improving healthcare systems, and taking cultural factors into account could make a real difference in lessening the burden of depressive disorders. More research is needed to understand what's driving these trends so that we can develop better strategies for preventing and managing these conditions.

    Matched MeSH terms: Global Health
  6. GBD 2019 Lip, Oral, and Pharyngeal Cancer Collaborators, Cunha ARD, Compton K, Xu R, Mishra R, Drangsholt MT, et al.
    JAMA Oncol, 2023 Oct 01;9(10):1401-1416.
    PMID: 37676656 DOI: 10.1001/jamaoncol.2023.2960
    IMPORTANCE: Lip, oral, and pharyngeal cancers are important contributors to cancer burden worldwide, and a comprehensive evaluation of their burden globally, regionally, and nationally is crucial for effective policy planning.

    OBJECTIVE: To analyze the total and risk-attributable burden of lip and oral cavity cancer (LOC) and other pharyngeal cancer (OPC) for 204 countries and territories and by Socio-demographic Index (SDI) using 2019 Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors (GBD) Study estimates.

    EVIDENCE REVIEW: The incidence, mortality, and disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) due to LOC and OPC from 1990 to 2019 were estimated using GBD 2019 methods. The GBD 2019 comparative risk assessment framework was used to estimate the proportion of deaths and DALYs for LOC and OPC attributable to smoking, tobacco, and alcohol consumption in 2019.

    FINDINGS: In 2019, 370 000 (95% uncertainty interval [UI], 338 000-401 000) cases and 199 000 (95% UI, 181 000-217 000) deaths for LOC and 167 000 (95% UI, 153 000-180 000) cases and 114 000 (95% UI, 103 000-126 000) deaths for OPC were estimated to occur globally, contributing 5.5 million (95% UI, 5.0-6.0 million) and 3.2 million (95% UI, 2.9-3.6 million) DALYs, respectively. From 1990 to 2019, low-middle and low SDI regions consistently showed the highest age-standardized mortality rates due to LOC and OPC, while the high SDI strata exhibited age-standardized incidence rates decreasing for LOC and increasing for OPC. Globally in 2019, smoking had the greatest contribution to risk-attributable OPC deaths for both sexes (55.8% [95% UI, 49.2%-62.0%] of all OPC deaths in male individuals and 17.4% [95% UI, 13.8%-21.2%] of all OPC deaths in female individuals). Smoking and alcohol both contributed to substantial LOC deaths globally among male individuals (42.3% [95% UI, 35.2%-48.6%] and 40.2% [95% UI, 33.3%-46.8%] of all risk-attributable cancer deaths, respectively), while chewing tobacco contributed to the greatest attributable LOC deaths among female individuals (27.6% [95% UI, 21.5%-33.8%]), driven by high risk-attributable burden in South and Southeast Asia.

    CONCLUSIONS AND RELEVANCE: In this systematic analysis, disparities in LOC and OPC burden existed across the SDI spectrum, and a considerable percentage of burden was attributable to tobacco and alcohol use. These estimates can contribute to an understanding of the distribution and disparities in LOC and OPC burden globally and support cancer control planning efforts.

    Matched MeSH terms: Global Health
  7. Danpanichkul P, Ng CH, Tan DJH, Wijarnpreecha K, Huang DQ, Noureddin M, et al.
    Clin Gastroenterol Hepatol, 2024 Sep;22(9):1947-1949.e3.
    PMID: 38428708 DOI: 10.1016/j.cgh.2024.02.011
    Alcohol is a substance that impacts premature mortality and morbidity.1 The liver is invariably subjected to the impact of alcohol, which can result in cirrhosis and cancer. Alcohol also has detrimental effects that extend beyond the liver. While traditionally associated with advanced age, emerging data reported a rising burden of cancers and alcohol-associated liver disease in the young.1-3 Thus, the primary objective was to evaluate the trend of alcohol-associated cirrhosis and cancer in young and middle-aged adults (aged 15-49) utilizing the Global Burden of Disease Study (GBD) 2019.4 We chose the age group less than 50 years old based on the definition of early-onset cancer and the inherent selection of the age group in the GBD database.4-6 The detailed methods are provided in the Supplementary Appendix. Briefly, data were sourced from population-based cancer registries, vital registration systems, or verbal autopsy studies. Verbal autopsy is a well-established approach for monitoring health, providing valuable information on mortality patterns and the reasons behind deaths in areas lacking robust medical death certification processes. The researchers employed the Cause of Death Ensemble model to estimate the burden linked to cancer and cirrhosis associated with alcohol use.
    Matched MeSH terms: Global Health
  8. GBD 2019 Antimicrobial Resistance Collaborators
    Lancet, 2022 Dec 17;400(10369):2221-2248.
    PMID: 36423648 DOI: 10.1016/S0140-6736(22)02185-7
    BACKGROUND: Reducing the burden of death due to infection is an urgent global public health priority. Previous studies have estimated the number of deaths associated with drug-resistant infections and sepsis and found that infections remain a leading cause of death globally. Understanding the global burden of common bacterial pathogens (both susceptible and resistant to antimicrobials) is essential to identify the greatest threats to public health. To our knowledge, this is the first study to present global comprehensive estimates of deaths associated with 33 bacterial pathogens across 11 major infectious syndromes.

    METHODS: We estimated deaths associated with 33 bacterial genera or species across 11 infectious syndromes in 2019 using methods from the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2019, in addition to a subset of the input data described in the Global Burden of Antimicrobial Resistance 2019 study. This study included 343 million individual records or isolates covering 11 361 study-location-years. We used three modelling steps to estimate the number of deaths associated with each pathogen: deaths in which infection had a role, the fraction of deaths due to infection that are attributable to a given infectious syndrome, and the fraction of deaths due to an infectious syndrome that are attributable to a given pathogen. Estimates were produced for all ages and for males and females across 204 countries and territories in 2019. 95% uncertainty intervals (UIs) were calculated for final estimates of deaths and infections associated with the 33 bacterial pathogens following standard GBD methods by taking the 2·5th and 97·5th percentiles across 1000 posterior draws for each quantity of interest.

    FINDINGS: From an estimated 13·7 million (95% UI 10·9-17·1) infection-related deaths in 2019, there were 7·7 million deaths (5·7-10·2) associated with the 33 bacterial pathogens (both resistant and susceptible to antimicrobials) across the 11 infectious syndromes estimated in this study. We estimated deaths associated with the 33 bacterial pathogens to comprise 13·6% (10·2-18·1) of all global deaths and 56·2% (52·1-60·1) of all sepsis-related deaths in 2019. Five leading pathogens-Staphylococcus aureus, Escherichia coli, Streptococcus pneumoniae, Klebsiella pneumoniae, and Pseudomonas aeruginosa-were responsible for 54·9% (52·9-56·9) of deaths among the investigated bacteria. The deadliest infectious syndromes and pathogens varied by location and age. The age-standardised mortality rate associated with these bacterial pathogens was highest in the sub-Saharan Africa super-region, with 230 deaths (185-285) per 100 000 population, and lowest in the high-income super-region, with 52·2 deaths (37·4-71·5) per 100 000 population. S aureus was the leading bacterial cause of death in 135 countries and was also associated with the most deaths in individuals older than 15 years, globally. Among children younger than 5 years, S pneumoniae was the pathogen associated with the most deaths. In 2019, more than 6 million deaths occurred as a result of three bacterial infectious syndromes, with lower respiratory infections and bloodstream infections each causing more than 2 million deaths and peritoneal and intra-abdominal infections causing more than 1 million deaths.

    INTERPRETATION: The 33 bacterial pathogens that we investigated in this study are a substantial source of health loss globally, with considerable variation in their distribution across infectious syndromes and locations. Compared with GBD Level 3 underlying causes of death, deaths associated with these bacteria would rank as the second leading cause of death globally in 2019; hence, they should be considered an urgent priority for intervention within the global health community. Strategies to address the burden of bacterial infections include infection prevention, optimised use of antibiotics, improved capacity for microbiological analysis, vaccine development, and improved and more pervasive use of available vaccines. These estimates can be used to help set priorities for vaccine need, demand, and development.

    FUNDING: Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation, Wellcome Trust, and Department of Health and Social Care, using UK aid funding managed by the Fleming Fund.

    Matched MeSH terms: Global Health
  9. Wei R, Wang Z, Zhang X, Wang X, Xu Y, Li Q
    Public Health, 2023 Sep;222:75-84.
    PMID: 37531713 DOI: 10.1016/j.puhe.2023.06.034
    OBJECTIVES: Understanding iodine deficiency (ID) burdens and trends in Asia can help guide effective intervention strategies. This study aims to report the incidence, prevalence, and disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) of ID in 48 Asian countries during the period 1990-2019.

    STUDY DESIGN: Data on ID were retrieved from the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2019 and estimated by age, sex, geographical region, and sociodemographic index (SDI).

    METHODS: The estimated annual percentage change (EAPC) was calculated to evaluate the changing trend of age-standardized incidence rate (ASIR), age-standardized prevalence rate (ASPR), and age-standardized DALYs rate (ASDR) related to ID during the period 1990-2019.

    RESULTS: In Asia, there were 126,983,965.8 cases with 5,466,213.1 new incidence and 1,765,995.5 DALYs of ID in 2019. Between 1999 and 2019, the EAPC in ASIR, ASPR and ASDR were -0.6 (95% confidence interval [CI], -0.8 to -0.4), -0.9 (95% CI, -1.2 to -0.7), and -1.6 (95% CI, -1.8 to -1.5), respectively. Malaysia charted the largest decrease in ASIR, ASPR, and ASDR (82.4%, 85.3%, and 80.9% separately), whereas the Philippines and Pakistan were the only two countries that witnessed an increase in ASIR and ASPR. ID burdens were more pronounced in women, countries located to the south of the Himalayas, and low-middle SDI regions.

    CONCLUSIONS: The incidence, prevalence, and DALYs of ID in Asia substantially decreased from 1990 to 2019. Women and low-middle SDI countries have relatively high ID burdens. Governments need to pay constant attention to the implementation and monitoring of universal salt iodization.

    Matched MeSH terms: Global Health
  10. Rus AZ
    Sci Prog, 2010;93(Pt 3):285-300.
    PMID: 21047019
    With the world facing depletion of its oil reserves, attention is being focused on how the plastics industry will address shortages and price increases in its crucial raw materials. One renewable resource is that of vegetable oils and fats and about a dozen crop plants make up the main vegetable oil-seed market. The main constituents of these oils are saturated and unsaturated fatty acids that are unique to the plant in which they have been developed. Moreover, technological processes can produce more well-defined and pure oils, and the fatty acid contents in the vegetable oils can be altered with modern crop development techniques. This article describes recent advances in utilising such vegetable oils in sourcing new polymeric materials. It also gives the context for the development of polymers based on renewable materials in general.
    Matched MeSH terms: Global Health
  11. Israfil SMH, Sarker MMR, Rashid PT, Talukder AA, Kawsar KA, Khan F, et al.
    Front Public Health, 2020;8:567395.
    PMID: 33505949 DOI: 10.3389/fpubh.2020.567395
    Clinical characteristics are essential for the correct diagnosis of diseases. The current review aimed to summarize the global clinical characteristics of the COVID-19 patients systematically and identify their diagnostic challenges to help the medical practitioners properly diagnose and for better management of COVID-19 patients. We conducted a systematic search in PubMed, Web of Science, Scopus, Science Direct, and Google Scholar databases for original articles containing clinical information of COVID-19 published up to 7th May 2020. Two researchers independently searched the databases to extract eligible articles. A total of 34 studies from 8 different countries with 10889 case-patients were included for clinical characteristics. The most common clinical symptoms were cough 59.6, fever 46.9, fatigue 27.8, and dyspnea 20.23%. The prominent laboratory findings were lymphocytopenia 55.9, elevated levels of CRP 61.9, aspartate aminotransferase 53.3, LDH 40.8, ESR 72.99, serum ferritin 63, IL-6 52, and prothrombin time 35.47%, and decreased levels of platelets 17.26, eosinophils 59.0, hemoglobin 29, and albumin 38.4%. CT scan of the chest showed an abnormality in 93.50% cases with bilateral lungs 71.1%, ground-glass opacity 48%, lesion in lungs 78.3%, and enlargement of lymph node 50.7%. Common comorbidities were hypertension, diabetes, obesity, and cardiovascular diseases. The estimated median incubation period was 5.36 days, and the overall case fatality rate was 16.9% (Global case fatality outside China was 22.24%: USA 21.24%, Italy 25.61%, and others 0%; whereas the case fatality inside the Hubei Province of China was found to be 11.71%). Global features on the clinical characteristics of COVID-19 obtained from laboratory tests and CT scan results will provide useful information to the physicians to diagnose the disease and for better management of the patients as well as to address the diagnostic challenges to control the infection.
    Matched MeSH terms: Global Health
  12. Hoo CZ, Wan Abdullah WZ, Omar H, Tan SS
    Med J Malaysia, 2023 Mar;78(2):234-240.
    PMID: 36988536
    INTRODUCTION: Worldwide, around 296 million people have hepatitis B virus (HBV) infection, most commonly transmitted from mother-to-child. Global Health Sector Strategy on Viral Hepatitis (GHSSVH) was introduced in May 2016, calling for elimination of viral hepatitis by 2030. This study aims to compare practice in a tertiary liver centre before and after GHSSVH introduction for prevention of mother-to-child transmission (MTCT).

    MATERIALS AND METHODS: This retrospective cohort study was performed in a tertiary referral liver centre in Malaysia, using data from electronic medical record from January 2015 to December 2019. A total of 1457 medical records of female with HBV infection were screened. The inclusion criteria of the study were pregnant women with HBsAg positive or known to have HBV infection during the study period. We excluded patients with co-infections of other types of viral hepatitis or human immunodeficiency virus, concurrent liver diseases (e.g.: autoimmune hepatitis, Wilson’s disease), previous organ transplant and malignancy—except for hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC).

    RESULTS: This study included 117 pregnancies and 21/117 (17.9%) were on antiviral therapy (AVT) for HBV. In 2017– 2019, 13/18 (72.2%) of those with HBV DNA >200,000IU/ml were on AVT, compared to 5/9 (55.6%) for 2015–2016, indicating 58% (95% CI −63% to 568%) higher odds of being on AVT in post GHSSVH group after accounting for HBV DNA.

    CONCLUSION: Uptake of maternal AVT for the prevention of MTCT shows an increased trend since the introduction of GHSSVH, with room for improvement.

    Matched MeSH terms: Global Health
  13. Siri JG, Newell B, Proust K, Capon A
    Asia Pac J Public Health, 2016 Mar;28(2 Suppl):15S-27S.
    PMID: 26219559 DOI: 10.1177/1010539515595694
    Extreme events, both natural and anthropogenic, increasingly affect cities in terms of economic losses and impacts on health and well-being. Most people now live in cities, and Asian cities, in particular, are experiencing growth on unprecedented scales. Meanwhile, the economic and health consequences of climate-related events are worsening, a trend projected to continue. Urbanization, climate change and other geophysical and social forces interact with urban systems in ways that give rise to complex and in many cases synergistic relationships. Such effects may be mediated by location, scale, density, or connectivity, and also involve feedbacks and cascading outcomes. In this context, traditional, siloed, reductionist approaches to understanding and dealing with extreme events are unlikely to be adequate. Systems approaches to mitigation, management and response for extreme events offer a more effective way forward. Well-managed urban systems can decrease risk and increase resilience in the face of such events.
    Matched MeSH terms: Global Health
  14. Low WY, Binns C
    Asia Pac J Public Health, 2014 Sep;26(5 Suppl):7S-8S.
    PMID: 25143527 DOI: 10.1177/1010539514545287
    Matched MeSH terms: Global Health
  15. GBD 2021 Fertility and Forecasting Collaborators
    Lancet, 2024 May 18;403(10440):2057-2099.
    PMID: 38521087 DOI: 10.1016/S0140-6736(24)00550-6
    BACKGROUND: Accurate assessments of current and future fertility-including overall trends and changing population age structures across countries and regions-are essential to help plan for the profound social, economic, environmental, and geopolitical challenges that these changes will bring. Estimates and projections of fertility are necessary to inform policies involving resource and health-care needs, labour supply, education, gender equality, and family planning and support. The Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2021 produced up-to-date and comprehensive demographic assessments of key fertility indicators at global, regional, and national levels from 1950 to 2021 and forecast fertility metrics to 2100 based on a reference scenario and key policy-dependent alternative scenarios.

    METHODS: To estimate fertility indicators from 1950 to 2021, mixed-effects regression models and spatiotemporal Gaussian process regression were used to synthesise data from 8709 country-years of vital and sample registrations, 1455 surveys and censuses, and 150 other sources, and to generate age-specific fertility rates (ASFRs) for 5-year age groups from age 10 years to 54 years. ASFRs were summed across age groups to produce estimates of total fertility rate (TFR). Livebirths were calculated by multiplying ASFR and age-specific female population, then summing across ages 10-54 years. To forecast future fertility up to 2100, our Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation (IHME) forecasting model was based on projections of completed cohort fertility at age 50 years (CCF50; the average number of children born over time to females from a specified birth cohort), which yields more stable and accurate measures of fertility than directly modelling TFR. CCF50 was modelled using an ensemble approach in which three sub-models (with two, three, and four covariates variously consisting of female educational attainment, contraceptive met need, population density in habitable areas, and under-5 mortality) were given equal weights, and analyses were conducted utilising the MR-BRT (meta-regression-Bayesian, regularised, trimmed) tool. To capture time-series trends in CCF50 not explained by these covariates, we used a first-order autoregressive model on the residual term. CCF50 as a proportion of each 5-year ASFR was predicted using a linear mixed-effects model with fixed-effects covariates (female educational attainment and contraceptive met need) and random intercepts for geographical regions. Projected TFRs were then computed for each calendar year as the sum of single-year ASFRs across age groups. The reference forecast is our estimate of the most likely fertility future given the model, past fertility, forecasts of covariates, and historical relationships between covariates and fertility. We additionally produced forecasts for multiple alternative scenarios in each location: the UN Sustainable Development Goal (SDG) for education is achieved by 2030; the contraceptive met need SDG is achieved by 2030; pro-natal policies are enacted to create supportive environments for those who give birth; and the previous three scenarios combined. Uncertainty from past data inputs and model estimation was propagated throughout analyses by taking 1000 draws for past and present fertility estimates and 500 draws for future forecasts from the estimated distribution for each metric, with 95% uncertainty intervals (UIs) given as the 2·5 and 97·5 percentiles of the draws. To evaluate the forecasting performance of our model and others, we computed skill values-a metric assessing gain in forecasting accuracy-by comparing predicted versus observed ASFRs from the past 15 years (2007-21). A positive skill metric indicates that the model being evaluated performs better than the baseline model (here, a simplified model holding 2007 values constant in the future), and a negative metric indicates that the evaluated model performs worse than baseline.

    FINDINGS: During the period from 1950 to 2021, global TFR more than halved, from 4·84 (95% UI 4·63-5·06) to 2·23 (2·09-2·38). Global annual livebirths peaked in 2016 at 142 million (95% UI 137-147), declining to 129 million (121-138) in 2021. Fertility rates declined in all countries and territories since 1950, with TFR remaining above 2·1-canonically considered replacement-level fertility-in 94 (46·1%) countries and territories in 2021. This included 44 of 46 countries in sub-Saharan Africa, which was the super-region with the largest share of livebirths in 2021 (29·2% [28·7-29·6]). 47 countries and territories in which lowest estimated fertility between 1950 and 2021 was below replacement experienced one or more subsequent years with higher fertility; only three of these locations rebounded above replacement levels. Future fertility rates were projected to continue to decline worldwide, reaching a global TFR of 1·83 (1·59-2·08) in 2050 and 1·59 (1·25-1·96) in 2100 under the reference scenario. The number of countries and territories with fertility rates remaining above replacement was forecast to be 49 (24·0%) in 2050 and only six (2·9%) in 2100, with three of these six countries included in the 2021 World Bank-defined low-income group, all located in the GBD super-region of sub-Saharan Africa. The proportion of livebirths occurring in sub-Saharan Africa was forecast to increase to more than half of the world's livebirths in 2100, to 41·3% (39·6-43·1) in 2050 and 54·3% (47·1-59·5) in 2100. The share of livebirths was projected to decline between 2021 and 2100 in most of the six other super-regions-decreasing, for example, in south Asia from 24·8% (23·7-25·8) in 2021 to 16·7% (14·3-19·1) in 2050 and 7·1% (4·4-10·1) in 2100-but was forecast to increase modestly in the north Africa and Middle East and high-income super-regions. Forecast estimates for the alternative combined scenario suggest that meeting SDG targets for education and contraceptive met need, as well as implementing pro-natal policies, would result in global TFRs of 1·65 (1·40-1·92) in 2050 and 1·62 (1·35-1·95) in 2100. The forecasting skill metric values for the IHME model were positive across all age groups, indicating that the model is better than the constant prediction.

    INTERPRETATION: Fertility is declining globally, with rates in more than half of all countries and territories in 2021 below replacement level. Trends since 2000 show considerable heterogeneity in the steepness of declines, and only a small number of countries experienced even a slight fertility rebound after their lowest observed rate, with none reaching replacement level. Additionally, the distribution of livebirths across the globe is shifting, with a greater proportion occurring in the lowest-income countries. Future fertility rates will continue to decline worldwide and will remain low even under successful implementation of pro-natal policies. These changes will have far-reaching economic and societal consequences due to ageing populations and declining workforces in higher-income countries, combined with an increasing share of livebirths among the already poorest regions of the world.

    FUNDING: Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

    Matched MeSH terms: Global Health
  16. Hall SJ, Dugan P, Allison EH, Andrew NL
    Ambio, 2010 Feb;39(1):78-80.
    PMID: 20496655
    Matched MeSH terms: Global Health
  17. Boatwright M, Lawrence M, Carriedo A, Slater S, McCoy D, Northcott T, et al.
    PMID: 39620519 DOI: 10.34172/ijhpm.8310
    BACKGROUND: The importance of the international food regulatory system to global health, is often overlooked. There are calls to reform this system to promote healthy and sustainable food systems centred on the Codex Alimentarius Commission (Codex), the United Nation's (UN's) standard-setting body. Yet this presents a significant political challenge, given Codex has historically prioritized food safety risks over wider harms to public health, and is dominated by powerful food exporting nations and industry groups with a primary interest in trade expansion. To better understand this challenge, we examine who participates and contests Codex standards, using the development of the new Guidelines on Front-of-pack Nutrition Labelling (FOPNL) as a case study.

    METHODS: The study involved: (i) collecting Codex Committee on Food Labelling (CCFL) documents (2016-2023); (ii) identification, categorization, and enumeration of actors involved in the development of the Guidelines; and (iii) guided by a constructivist framework, analysis of how actors framed and contested key provisions of the Guidelines.

    RESULTS: Country representation was skewed towards high-income (47.9%). Member state delegations were dominated by non-health ministries (59.8%) and industry actors (16.1%). Industry actors comprised the large majority of observers (84.2%) and civil society actors representing public health interests the least (12.2%). Commercial actors used frames supporting positive FOPNL messages (eg, low in salt) opposing negative ones (eg, "high-in" sugar warnings) and called for product exemptions (eg, sports foods and baby foods). Public health actors used frames supporting simplified FOPNL to reduce consumer confusion, that hold up public health goals, and prevent inappropriate marketing.

    CONCLUSION: Participation in the Guidelines development process suggests stronger preferences for trade facilitation and commerce over public health. Ambitions to reform the international food regulatory system may require an examination of who participates and how to address this asymmetrical representation of interests. These results suggest the need to greatly strengthen public health representation at Codex.

    Matched MeSH terms: Global Health
  18. Potter RE, Ertel M, Dollard MF, Leka S, Jain A, Lerouge L, et al.
    Ind Health, 2024 Nov 26;62(6):353-366.
    PMID: 39085135 DOI: 10.2486/indhealth.2024-0092
    Worker psychological health is a significant global imperative that requires national policy action and stakeholder engagement. While national policy is a critical lever for improving worker psychological health, some countries are more progressive than others in relation to policy development and/or implementation. At the Joint Congress of the International Commission on Occupational Health, Scientific Committee on Work Organization and Psychosocial Factors and the Asia Pacific Academy for Psychosocial Factors at Work in Tokyo (September 2023), a Global Roundtable was held that to initiate international dialogue and knowledge exchange about national policy approaches for work-related psychological health. The Global Roundtable involved experts from diverse regions alongside an engaged audience of congress attendees and facilitators. Qualitative data were analysed against the five components of the National Policy Index tool comprising, policy priority, specific laws, nation-wide initiatives, sector-oriented initiatives, national survey and/or studies. Analysis revealed that while work-related psychological health is a policy priority across many countries, at the same time, there are global gaps in both legislation specificity and active regulation across different countries. For future policy development across countries, it will be beneficial to continue and deepen international discourse and for countries to share their approaches with others.
    Matched MeSH terms: Global Health
  19. Agarwal S, Prasad S, Agarwal A, Raja Ali RA, Leffler DA, Green PHR, et al.
    J Gastroenterol Hepatol, 2025 Jan;40(1):142-152.
    PMID: 39528309 DOI: 10.1111/jgh.16793
    BACKGROUND AND AIM: Celiac disease (CeD) is increasingly diagnosed but significant disparities exist in awareness, practices, resources, and legislation worldwide. We conducted a global online survey with CeD experts to assess this disparity internationally.

    METHODS: A 55 questions survey encompassing nine domains relevant to CeD care (awareness, gluten-free [GF] foods availability/cost/quality, GF labeling, CeD dietician availability, insurance for CeD patients, medical training, research funding, patient support groups, and unmet needs) was generated and sent to CeD experts worldwide electronically. Countries were stratified based on per capita income as high-income (HIC) and lower-income countries (LIC) (including upper-middle-, lower-middle-, and low-income countries). Survey responses were summarized as a single score using principal component analysis.

    RESULTS: Valid responses were obtained from 131(37.4%) [HIC: 71; LIC: 60] of contacted CeD experts from 63 countries. Compared with HIC, LIC experts perceived worse availability (HIC:80% vs LIC: 47%; P global experts on the challenges, opportunities, and preparedness related to CeD and differences worldwide by income.

    Matched MeSH terms: Global Health
  20. Reilly JJ, Andrew R, Abdeta C, Azevedo LB, Farias NA, Barak S, et al.
    Sports Med, 2025 Jan;55(1):203-219.
    PMID: 39361231 DOI: 10.1007/s40279-024-02104-2
    BACKGROUND: The actions required to achieve higher-quality and harmonised global surveillance of child and adolescent movement behaviours (physical activity, sedentary behaviour including screen time, sleep) are unclear.

    OBJECTIVE: To identify how to improve surveillance of movement behaviours, from the perspective of experts.

    METHODS: This Delphi Study involved 62 experts from the SUNRISE International Study of Movement Behaviours in the Early Years and Active Healthy Kids Global Alliance (AHKGA). Two survey rounds were used, with items categorised under: (1) funding, (2) capacity building, (3) methods, and (4) other issues (e.g., policymaker awareness of relevant WHO Guidelines and Strategies). Expert participants ranked 40 items on a five-point Likert scale from 'extremely' to 'not at all' important. Consensus was defined as > 70% rating of 'extremely' or 'very' important.

    RESULTS: We received 62 responses to round 1 of the survey and 59 to round 2. There was consensus for most items. The two highest rated round 2 items in each category were the following; for funding (1) it was greater funding for surveillance and public funding of surveillance; for capacity building (2) it was increased human capacity for surveillance (e.g. knowledge, skills) and regional or global partnerships to support national surveillance; for methods (3) it was standard protocols for surveillance measures and improved measurement method for screen time; and for other issues (4) it was greater awareness of physical activity guidelines and strategies from WHO and greater awareness of the importance of surveillance for NCD prevention. We generally found no significant differences in priorities between low-middle-income (n = 29) and high-income countries (n = 30) or between SUNRISE (n = 20), AHKGA (n = 26) or both (n = 13) initiatives. There was a lack of agreement on using private funding for surveillance or surveillance research.

    CONCLUSIONS: This study provides a prioritised and international consensus list of actions required to improve surveillance of movement behaviours in children and adolescents globally.

    Matched MeSH terms: Global Health
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