METHODS: We systematically reviewed Medline and Embase for population-based studies reporting hospitalization rates for IBD, Crohn's disease (CD), or ulcerative colitis (UC) in the 21st century. Log-linear models were used to calculate the average annual percentage change (AAPC) with associated 95% confidence intervals (95% CIs). Random-effects meta-analysis pooled country-level AAPCs. Data were stratified by the epidemiologic stage of a region: compounding prevalence (stage 3) in North America, Western Europe, and Oceania vs acceleration of incidence (stage 2) in Asia, Eastern Europe, and Latin America vs emergence (stage 1) in developing countries.
RESULTS: Hospitalization rates for a primary diagnosis of IBD were stable in countries in stage 3 (AAPC, -0.13%; 95% CI, -0.72 to 0.97), CD (AAPC, 0.20%; 95% CI, -1.78 to 2.17), and UC (AAPC, 0.02%; 95% CI, -0.91 to 0.94). In contrast, hospitalization rates for a primary diagnosis were increasing in countries in stage 2 for IBD (AAPC, 4.44%; 95% CI, 2.75 to 6.14), CD (AAPC, 8.34%; 95% CI, 4.38 to 12.29), and UC (AAPC, 3.90; 95% CI, 1.29 to 6.52). No population-based studies were available for developing regions in stage 1 (emergence).
CONCLUSIONS: Hospitalization rates for IBD are stabilizing in countries in stage 3, whereas newly industrialized countries in stage 2 have rapidly increasing hospitalization rates, contributing to an increasing burden on global health care systems.
METHODS: We used pre-COVID-19 pulmonary tuberculosis (PTB) data (2007-2018) to fit SARIMA, Prophet, and LSTM models, assessing their ability to predict PTB incidence trends. These models were then applied to compare the predicted PTB incidence patterns with actual reported cases during the COVID-19 pandemic (2020-2023), using deviations between predicted and actual values to reflect the impact of COVID-19 countermeasures on PTB incidence.
RESULTS: Prior to the COVID-19 outbreak, PTB incidence in China exhibited a steady decline with strong seasonal fluctuations, characterized by two annual peaks-one in March and another in December. These seasonal trends persisted until 2019. During the COVID-19 pandemic, there was a significant reduction in PTB cases, with actual reported cases falling below the predicted values. The disruption in PTB incidence appears to be temporary, as 2023 data indicate a gradual return to pre-pandemic trends, though the incidence rate remains slightly lower than pre-COVID levels. Additionally, we compared the fitting and forecasting performance of the SARIMA, Prophet, and LSTM models using RMSE (root mean squared error), MAE (mean absolute error), and MAPE (mean absolute percentage error) indexes prior to the COVID-19 outbreak. We found that the Prophet model had the lowest values for all three indexes, demonstrating the best fitting and prediction performance.
CONCLUSIONS: The COVID-19 pandemic has had a temporary but significant impact on PTB incidence in China, leading to a reduction in reported cases during the pandemic. However, as pandemic control measures relax and the healthcare system stabilizes, PTB incidence patterns are expected to return to pre-COVID-19 levels. The Prophet model demonstrated the best predictive performance and proves to be a valuable tool for analyzing PTB trends and guiding public health planning in the post-pandemic era.
OBJECTIVES: To review the evidence on the application of the new VAE surveillance definition in paediatric population and examine the potential challenges in clinical practice.
REVIEW METHODS: A systematic approach was used to locate and synthesise the relevant paediatric literature. Studies were appraised according to epidemiological appraisal instrument (EAI) and the grades of evidence in the National Health Medical Research Council (NHMRC) guidelines.
RESULTS: Seven studies met the inclusion criteria. Quality of study methods was above 50% on the EAI. The overall grade of evidence was assessed as C (satisfactory). The incidence of VAE in children ranged from 1.1 to 20.9 per 1000 ventilator days as a result of variations in surveillance criteria across included studies. There is little agreement between the new VAE and PNU/VAP surveillance definition in the identification of VAP. Challenges in the application of VAE surveillance were related to; the difference in modes of ventilation used in children versus adults, inconclusive criteria tailored to paediatric samples and a lack of data that support for automatic data extraction applied in paediatric studies.
CONCLUSION: This review demonstrated promising evidence using the new VAE surveillance definition to define the VAE in children, but the level of the evidence is low. Before the possibility of real implementation in clinical settings, challenges related to VAE paediatric specific criteria' and the value of automated data collection need to be considered.