AIM: Despite increase global prevalence of End stage renal disease (ESRD) and subsequent need for renal replacement therapy (RRT), relatively little is known about disease progression and prognosis of earlier stages of CKD. Current study was conducted to examine rate of CKD progression, predictors of ESRD and death.
METHODS: A total 621 patients with estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR) of 15-59ml/min/1.73m(2) (CKD stage 3 & 4) were selected and followed up for 10 years or until ESRD or death, whichever occurred first. Subjects who did not meet inclusion criteria were excluded (n=1474).
RESULTS: Annual cumulative decline in eGFR was 3.01±0.40 ml/min/1.73m(2) . Overall disease progression was observed in 60% patients while 18% died. Among patients with CKD stage 3, 21% progressed to stage 4, 10% to stage 5ND (non-dialysis) and 31% to RRT while mortality was observed in 16% patients. On the other hand, 8% patients with CKD stage 4 progressed to stage 5ND, 31% to RRT and mortality was observed in 24% cases. Patients with CVD, higher systolic blood pressure, elevated phosphate levels, heavy proteinuria, microscopic hematuria and use of diuretics were more likely to develop ESRD. Advancing age, low eGFR, low systolic blood pressure, low hemoglobin and baseline diabetes were found to be significant predictors of mortality while being female reduced risk of mortality.
CONCLUSION: Our data suggest that, in this CKD cohort, patients were more likely to develop ESRD than death. Prime importance should be given to mild forms of CKD to retard and even reverse CKD progression.
* Title and MeSH Headings from MEDLINE®/PubMed®, a database of the U.S. National Library of Medicine.