MATERIALS AND METHODS: A total of 81 cases of oral cancers were matched with 162 controls in this hospital-based study. Information on sociodemographic characteristics and details of risk habits (duration, frequency and type of tobacco consumption and betel quid chewing) were collected. Association between smoking and betel quid chewing with oral cancer were analysed using conditional logistic regression.

RESULTS: Slightly more than half of the cases (55.6%) were smokers where 88.9% of them smoked kretek. After adjusting for confounders, smokers have two fold increased risk, while the risk for kretek consumers and those smoking for more than 10 years was increased to almost three-fold. Prevalence of betel quid chewing among cases and controls was low (7.4% and 1.9% respectively). Chewing of at least one quid per day, and quid combination of betel leaf, areca nut, lime and tobacco conferred a 5-6 fold increased risk.

METHODS: Stiffness index (SI) was measured and T-scores generated against an Asian database were recorded for 598,757 women and 173,326 men aged over 21 years old using Lunar Achilles (GE Healthcare) heel scanners. The scanners were made available in public centres in Singapore, Vietnam, Malaysia, Taiwan, Thailand, Indonesia and the Philippines.

RESULTS: The mean SI was higher for men than women. In women SI as well as T-scores declined slowly until approximately 45 years of age, then declined rapidly to reach a mean T-score of 80 years.

DESIGN: Prospective, population cohort study.

PARTICIPANTS: The Singapore Malay Eye Study baseline participants (age, ≥40 years; 2006-2008) were followed up in 2011 through 2013, and 1901 of 3280 of eligible participants (72.1%) took part.

METHODS: Fundus photographs were graded using the Wisconsin AMD grading system.

MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES: Incidence of early and late AMD.

RESULTS: Gradable fundus photographs were available for 1809 participants who attended both baseline and 6-year follow-up examinations. The age-standardized incidences of early and late AMD were 5.89% (95% confidence interval [CI], 4.81-7.16) and 0.76% (95% CI, 0.42-1.29), respectively. The 5-year age-standardized incidence of early AMD (calculated based on the 6-year incidence) was lower in our population (5.58%; 95% CI, 4.43-7.01) compared with the Beaver Dam Eye Study population (8.19%). The incidence of late AMD in our population was similar to that of the Beaver Dam Eye Study population (0.98% [95% CI, 0.49-1.86] vs. 0.91%), the Blue Mountains Eye Study population (1.10% [95% CI, 0.52-9.56] vs. 1.10%), and the Hisayama Study population (1.09% [95% CI, 0.54-4.25] vs. 0.84%). The incidence of late AMD increased markedly with increasing baseline AREDS score (step 0, 0.23%; step 4, 9.09%).

METHODS: The Birmingham Eye Trauma Terminology (BETT) system was used to classify injuries as globe ruptures, penetrating eye injuries (PEIs), intraocular foreign bodies (IOFBs) or perforating injuries. Demographic data, past ocular history, mechanism of trauma, ocular injuries, and best-corrected visual acuity (BCVA) before and after treatment were recorded.

RESULTS: The 205 OGIs included 80 globe ruptures, 71 PEIs, 48 IOFBs and six perforating injuries. Falls predominated in older age groups compared to the other mechanisms of injury (p<0.0001). A fall was responsible for 33 globe ruptures and 82% of these had a history of previous intraocular surgery. Globe rupture and perforating injuries had poorer visual outcomes (p<0.05), consistent with previous studies. Alcohol was implicated in 20 cases of OGI, with 11 of these due to assault. PEIs and IOFBs commonly occurred while working with metal. BCVA was significantly worse following removal of an intraocular foreign body. We found presenting BCVA to be a good predictor of BCVA at the time of discharge.

METHODS: To estimate incidence and mortality for HIV, we used the UNAIDS Spectrum model appropriately modified based on a systematic review of available studies of mortality with and without antiretroviral therapy (ART). For concentrated epidemics, we calibrated Spectrum models to fit vital registration data corrected for misclassification of HIV deaths. In generalised epidemics, we minimised a loss function to select epidemic curves most consistent with prevalence data and demographic data for all-cause mortality. We analysed counterfactual scenarios for HIV to assess years of life saved through prevention of mother-to-child transmission (PMTCT) and ART. For tuberculosis, we analysed vital registration and verbal autopsy data to estimate mortality using cause of death ensemble modelling. We analysed data for corrected case-notifications, expert opinions on the case-detection rate, prevalence surveys, and estimated cause-specific mortality using Bayesian meta-regression to generate consistent trends in all parameters. We analysed malaria mortality and incidence using an updated cause of death database, a systematic analysis of verbal autopsy validation studies for malaria, and recent studies (2010-13) of incidence, drug resistance, and coverage of insecticide-treated bednets.

FINDINGS: Globally in 2013, there were 1·8 million new HIV infections (95% uncertainty interval 1·7 million to 2·1 million), 29·2 million prevalent HIV cases (28·1 to 31·7), and 1·3 million HIV deaths (1·3 to 1·5). At the peak of the epidemic in 2005, HIV caused 1·7 million deaths (1·6 million to 1·9 million). Concentrated epidemics in Latin America and eastern Europe are substantially smaller than previously estimated. Through interventions including PMTCT and ART, 19·1 million life-years (16·6 million to 21·5 million) have been saved, 70·3% (65·4 to 76·1) in developing countries. From 2000 to 2011, the ratio of development assistance for health for HIV to years of life saved through intervention was US$4498 in developing countries. Including in HIV-positive individuals, all-form tuberculosis incidence was 7·5 million (7·4 million to 7·7 million), prevalence was 11·9 million (11·6 million to 12·2 million), and number of deaths was 1·4 million (1·3 million to 1·5 million) in 2013. In the same year and in only individuals who were HIV-negative, all-form tuberculosis incidence was 7·1 million (6·9 million to 7·3 million), prevalence was 11·2 million (10·8 million to 11·6 million), and number of deaths was 1·3 million (1·2 million to 1·4 million). Annualised rates of change (ARC) for incidence, prevalence, and death became negative after 2000. Tuberculosis in HIV-negative individuals disproportionately occurs in men and boys (versus women and girls); 64·0% of cases (63·6 to 64·3) and 64·7% of deaths (60·8 to 70·3). Globally, malaria cases and deaths grew rapidly from 1990 reaching a peak of 232 million cases (143 million to 387 million) in 2003 and 1·2 million deaths (1·1 million to 1·4 million) in 2004. Since 2004, child deaths from malaria in sub-Saharan Africa have decreased by 31·5% (15·7 to 44·1). Outside of Africa, malaria mortality has been steadily decreasing since 1990.

INTERPRETATION: Our estimates of the number of people living with HIV are 18·7% smaller than UNAIDS's estimates in 2012. The number of people living with malaria is larger than estimated by WHO. The number of people living with HIV, tuberculosis, or malaria have all decreased since 2000. At the global level, upward trends for malaria and HIV deaths have been reversed and declines in tuberculosis deaths have accelerated. 101 countries (74 of which are developing) still have increasing HIV incidence. Substantial progress since the Millennium Declaration is an encouraging sign of the effect of global action.