METHODS: The GBD 2019 comparative risk assessment framework was used to estimate cancer burden attributable to behavioural, environmental and occupational, and metabolic risk factors. A total of 82 risk-outcome pairs were included on the basis of the World Cancer Research Fund criteria. Estimated cancer deaths and disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) in 2019 and change in these measures between 2010 and 2019 are presented.
FINDINGS: Globally, in 2019, the risk factors included in this analysis accounted for 4·45 million (95% uncertainty interval 4·01-4·94) deaths and 105 million (95·0-116) DALYs for both sexes combined, representing 44·4% (41·3-48·4) of all cancer deaths and 42·0% (39·1-45·6) of all DALYs. There were 2·88 million (2·60-3·18) risk-attributable cancer deaths in males (50·6% [47·8-54·1] of all male cancer deaths) and 1·58 million (1·36-1·84) risk-attributable cancer deaths in females (36·3% [32·5-41·3] of all female cancer deaths). The leading risk factors at the most detailed level globally for risk-attributable cancer deaths and DALYs in 2019 for both sexes combined were smoking, followed by alcohol use and high BMI. Risk-attributable cancer burden varied by world region and Socio-demographic Index (SDI), with smoking, unsafe sex, and alcohol use being the three leading risk factors for risk-attributable cancer DALYs in low SDI locations in 2019, whereas DALYs in high SDI locations mirrored the top three global risk factor rankings. From 2010 to 2019, global risk-attributable cancer deaths increased by 20·4% (12·6-28·4) and DALYs by 16·8% (8·8-25·0), with the greatest percentage increase in metabolic risks (34·7% [27·9-42·8] and 33·3% [25·8-42·0]).
INTERPRETATION: The leading risk factors contributing to global cancer burden in 2019 were behavioural, whereas metabolic risk factors saw the largest increases between 2010 and 2019. Reducing exposure to these modifiable risk factors would decrease cancer mortality and DALY rates worldwide, and policies should be tailored appropriately to local cancer risk factor burden.
FUNDING: Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.
Methods: A prospective nested case-control study across sites in the Asia-Pacific region was conducted; involving female IBD cases and asymptomatic controls. Subjects completed a questionnaire addressing questions related to OCP use. Primary outcome was the risk of development of IBD of those exposed to OCP versus non-exposure. Secondary outcomes were development of Crohn's disease (CD) versus ulcerative colitis (UC), and whether age of first use of OCP use may be associated with risk of IBD.
Results: Three hundred and forty-eight female IBD cases (41% CD, median age: 43 years) and 590 female age-matched controls were recruited. No significant association was found between OCP use and the risk of IBD (odds ratio [OR], 1.65; 95% confidence interval, 0.77-3.13; P=0.22), CD (OR, 1.55) or UC (OR, 1.01). The lack of association persisted when results were adjusted for age and smoking. IBD cases commenced OCP use at a younger age than controls (18 years vs. 20 years, P=0.049).
Conclusions: In this large cohort of subjects from the Asia-Pacific region, we found a modest but not significantly increased risk of developing IBD amongst OCP users.