METHODS: The antidiarrheal investigation was performed by using in vivo castor oil-induced diarrheal method whereas in vitro antimicrobial and antioxidant investigation have been implemented by disc diffusion and DPPH scavenging method respectively. Moreover, in silico studies were followed by molecular docking analysis of several secondary metabolites that were appraised with Schrödinger-Maestro v11.1 and Biovia Discovery Studio.
RESULTS: The induction of plant extract (200 and 400 mg/kg, b.w, p.o) has minimized the castor oil mediated diarrhea by 16.96% (p
METHOD: The online survey was conducted among the residents of Sindh, Pakistan, in July 2021 through a survey tool designed using Google Forms and sent to the population through various social media.
RESULTS: Of 926 study participants, 59.0% were male, and 68.6% were aged between 18 and 31 years. Higher percentages of responses were recorded from the Hyderabad division (37.5%), and 60.0% of respondents were graduates, with 34.8% of them in the private sector. The results showed that 36.4% of respondents had good knowledge, and 30.3% had a positive attitude toward COVID-19 vaccination. Almost 77% of respondents perceived that everyone should get vaccinated in the country and those health care workers on priority. A majority (80.8%) of respondents were willing to accept COVID-19 vaccination.
CONCLUSION: Despite having insufficient knowledge and a low percentage of positive attitude public in Sindh are willing to be vaccinated. Based on this finding, more effort has to be done to promote vaccination among the public, especially among the less educated population.
Materials and methods: We developed a mathematical model based on the susceptible-infectious-recovered model to simulate the HBV-induced infection in children under the age of five at three different vaccination rates: 80, 90, and 95%. Additionally the impact of current vaccination coverage was assessed on HBV-induced death rates in the future. Moreover, we took advantage of the mathematical model to investigate the impact of negative bias toward girls in vaccination program on HBV-induced infection and death rates.
Results: The model simulations revealed that 10% increase in the vaccination rate from 80 to 90% can potentially contribute to the significant lowering (around 40%) of HBV-induced infection rate among children. When increased by 5% of vaccination rate from 90 to 95%, the HBV-infection rate is likely to be decreased by another 22%. Likewise, 44% reduction in HBV-induced death rate in the future (2050 onward) can potentially be achieved by 10% increase in the current vaccination rate from 80 to 90%, whereas 5% increase in the current vaccination rate (90-95%) may lead to 24% further reduction of death rate. These results underscored the significant impact of vaccination in reducing HBV-induced infection among children and future death rates in adults. Moreover, at 90% vaccination coverage, the negative bias of vaccination toward girls contributes to an increase of 15 and 12% of HBV-induced infection and death rates, respectively, in female subjects compared to their male counterparts.
Conclusion: The current vaccination coverage (80-90%) is further aggravated by untimely vaccination, dropouts from vaccination program, and negative bias toward girls in vaccination program. Therefore, if the current situation persists, it will not be possible to accomplish the required reduction in HBV-induced infection and death rates by 2030, according to the SDG guidelines. Moreover negative bias in the vaccination program may intensify the HBV-induced infection and death rates in the future.
Clinical significance: In light of the mathematical model, we suggest that the vaccination coverage should be increased to 95% without any negative bias toward girls. To accomplish this, the concerning authorities must ensure timely and full completion of the HBV vaccine schedules, reducing dropouts from vaccination program, and lastly preventing negative bias toward girls to uplift vaccination coverage to more than 95% with gender equality. Without these strategies, the necessary reduction in the HBV-induced infection and death rates in Bangladesh may not be attained per SDG directives.
How to cite this article: Chakraborty S, Chakravorty R, Alam S, et al. A Dynamic Mathematical Modeling Revelation about the Impact of Vaccination on Hepatitis B Virus-induced Infection and Death Rate in Bangladesh. Euroasian J Hepato-Gastroenterol 2019;9(2):84-90.
METHODS: Peripheral blood, bone marrow and spleen aspirate samples were collected from clinically suspected VL patients (n = 26). A new PCR primer pair (MK1F/R) was designed targeting kinetoplast mini circle DNA sequences of Leishmania donovani, and Leishmania infantum, and was used to diagnose VL along with some other established primers for VL in polymerase chain reactions. Test was validated by comparing with several other diagnostic methods.
RESULTS: The designed primer set showed 100% specificity and 98% sensitivity in detecting VL using blood samples, when compared with more invasive samples: bone marrow or spleen aspirates.
CONCLUSIONS: The newly designed primer MK1F/R could be a better alternative for PCR based diagnosis of VL using less invasive sample, peripheral blood instead of bone marrow or spleen aspirates.